"What's Coming is WORSE Than A Recession" | Ray Dalio's Last WARNING

요약 보기

달리오는 정부의 과도한 재정지출과 부채 확대가 통화 증발과 인플레이션을 낳고, 이로 인해 금리 상승과 스태그플레이션이 나타날 수 있다고 주장한다. 또한 정치적 양극화와 내부 갈등이 시스템을 위협하며, 과거 역사에서 이런 상황이 독재나 내전으로 이어졌다고 경고한다. 이 구조적 위험이 달러 가치를 위협한다고 본다. 구체적 가격 수치나 자산별 목표는 제시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. govern has given a lot of money and credit to people well no surprise that's leading to a lot of inflation okay inflation takes buying power away from people and it also means that then there's going to be higher interest rates and that's going to squeeze people I think there are three things three big forces to keep your eye on and when you see them in their cycle then it's clear first are you earning more than you are spending well you can up both I want them to look at it as the country but the country is nothing more than the aggregate of the people and so when you look at those three forces I want to make sure that they're clear and you could align them up and you could see where you are is the country earning more than it's spending and building savings or is it spending more than it is earning and creating debt because one man's debts are another man's assets and when somebody is holding those assets and they're producing a lot more of that money money in debt they go down in value money goes down in value as they produce it to produce that buying power and then that gets people um bad returns bad in it produces a higher amount of inflation and it produces bad returns for holding debt or Bond so in other words cash or bonds and then people get out of cash and bonds and that produces Rising interest rates while there's Rising inflation and that produces stag flation so I want them to get the mechanics of that because that's happening now you could see it this is not controversial we are producing a lot of debt we're spending a lot more than we're earning and as a result they're printing a lot of money and the printing of a lot of money creates a lot of inflation and with that inflation then nobody wants to you know cash is trash you don't want to hold cash and that causes rates to rise and that's one of those three factors so you can see it happening and you could also see the cycle of it as shown in the book the second force that is dealing with is the internal conflict how you are with each other are you operating cohesively common Mission and moving in the right direction the system working or are you at each other's throats is the system threatened because history shown when the causes that people are behind are more important to them than the system the system is in Jeopardy and that is a risky situation it's a risky situation because it produces disorder and it can produce a form of Civil War and at those times when you have that you see greater and greater polarity in politics it shows up at greater and greater populism of the left and populism of the right and populists want to fight for their side they're not moderates moderates want to work together to try to find a compromise that's best for the whole populists um appeal to their Crowd by saying I am fighting for you and they will fight each other and that fight can be at the threat of the system so in history for example we saw four democracies in the 1930s choose to become dictatorships as one side fights to the other because they become so disorderly and we have a system right now that you could see that it is possible in elections that one side neither side might accept losing and so the system becomes in Jeopardy and you see that the moderates leave the system they you can't be moderate you have to pick a side and fight and so you see this in the French Revolution there were moderates in the early part of it that recognizing that there were problems and and wanting to work together the moderates got guility the the the polarity began the same was true in the Russian Revolution the same was true in the Chinese Revolution the Cuban Revolution and so on those polarity gets greater and greater as there's a greater intensity to fight and that is the internal piece and so you could see where we are in that internal piece right now I mean there is a great polarity and you're seeing that lead to changes in where people live they're moving to different areas not just because of tax reasons but because of differences in values and so that kind of you can see it today happening these things but you also can see the Arc of them in the book because that it measures statistics it shows these things happening so when you have a financial problems and you have this kind of polarity and you have a bad time you have a lot of fighting internally so imagine where we are in the economic cycle where they have given the government has given a lot of money and credit to people they've put put it out well no surprise that's leading to a lot of inflation inflation takes buying power away from people and it also means that then there's going to be higher interest rates and that's going to squeeze people and so that makes that wealth Gap and that wealth issue uh more difficult so that's where we are now and that also is risky because it threatens the value of the dollar