저자: Dr.MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 신흥국 시장은 성장성과 저평가, 기술 확산을 근거로 긍정적이며 기관투자자 관심이 커지고 있다. 신흥국 투자 환경 변화: 1987년 대비 현재 신흥국 시장이 크게 성장했고, 과거에는 소수 시장만 투자 대상이었으나 지금은 전 세계 대부분 지역이 투자 대상이 됐다. 기관투자자 관심: 기관투자자들이 선진국 비중이 과도하다고 보고 신흥국 비중 확대를 고려하고 있으며, 설문에서 57%가 이익이 된다고 응답했다. 성장률 근거: 중국·인도 등 신흥국의 GDP 성장률이 선진국보다 높고, 인구·경제 규모 측면에서 비중이 커졌다. 밸류에이션: 신흥국 PER은 약 12배 수준, PBR은 약 1.25배 수준으로 선진국 대비 저평가 상태라고 설명했다. 기술 확산: 인터넷 사용자 수가 중국·인도·브라질·러시아 등에서 크게 늘었고, 스마트폰 가격 하락과 모바일 송금 서비스 확대가 금융 포용을 촉진한다고 했다. 리스크: 일부 신흥국 부채비율 상승, 외환 취약성 등이 언급되었으나 거시지표 점검으로 관리 가능하다고 봤다. ESG: ESG 전략 지수가 MSCI 신흥국 일반 지수보다 성과가 좋았고 기관 자금 유입이 늘고 있다고 설명했다. 스리랑카: 스리랑카 성장 가능성과 경제 발전 경로에 대해 긍정적으로 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 신흥국 시장이 장기적으로 밸류에이션 재평가 가능성이 있다는 장기 긍정 견해를 유지했다.
다듬은 글
ask me I had to read about this if you want to succeed and I never get the number years ago I was a solvent and that time one does not lead to health and we see oil and acai and we lose it now this is an emergency mom is fine I'd like to talk to the doctor to be so even the waiting I hope you never see you in coming years and you know we had an office in London and so we said it'd be a lot better for me to be here than the city over anyway city creativity there again what I like to do is give you a little overview of how we see French markets moving it up the background the history and if you want to use one word that best describes what's happenin energy office word has changed you know he saw that the person in August 1987 we $180 and with only seven markets the best since that time actually in order to gain access to music you have to purchase the funding so they should see before Nashville and she hopper across was closed all the time also process of the Union will disclose most nightmare we mark all the way it needs to change and if you look at some of the cities we visited that time Shanghai 25 you so looked like this and today it looks like this Dubai just enacted by 25 years old like this today if any not I highly recommended because we have this all this moving the world is social spot everything and I had that the horses I have / it along the whole body of this scene all the before look like this in Malaysia and by the way those two hours dr.
Xavier the Prime Minister who's now our destiny back to back I hope some Malaysian said he was fired by the Effendi Sayle recycling and I was my idea so probably those two hours and this one came 200 with no longer the boss the world goodbye a smaller you say that's what without to so anyway you can see the change as I said 1987 though you know areas where would either the best was it I was the only places the only basis will get invest and today get the best all those areas of the world over seventy office on the world why emerging markets now and the key is the fact that more and more the best is maybe the institutional investors really wanted to expose again a lot of people are overweight in the air small and they exploded anticipation into original office and this survey got my essentially Global Advisors institutional investors asked the question about whether his institution would benefit his market equities and 57% said that greedy 27% said strong theory and only 50 was said this so obviously there's an interest in the key word the key is growth because if you look at GDP growth for 2019 forecasted you see that even despite all the revisions that we see here secondary Moscow high for 25 percent versus 1 very much and completely China India early I've said symbolism so that brings up the other thing that's changed dramatically is the size of these countries in many sects very modest economic workforce you know china overridden people india over 80 people and all those red bars are emerging market countries do you see okay people Indonesia Brazil I understand my true Bangladesh well over and Russia so in terms of this pocket size these companies are needed so they look at emerging markets that percent of the world to see that operation 70-plus percent Barnes change global service whenever 60 percent land mass the people said excellence we need so you know the scope of Easterners offices economic size is very very poor by the way yesterday son asked me prison here in Sri Lanka and I said you know people should not be moving to a few million years should be intended the unit cost and reason why I said that is because the fact that often do you and yet you have variations specialist these people being able to travel more and more of course we look at the office we look at value you know where the the attitude within these fairs Mollison I made too long and I was really very attractive valuations us but if you look at the average where's my keys we're now at child to passengers ravish versus 16 on five floors of countries and if you look at a book value is 125 versus 244 so vision loss on the average rather cheap although remember is that with interspace down to single vision that was low so vision and in some cases like with your native that was very simple yes I hate what the Association should bleed so if I understand you can justify our situation many times which is why of course that's a new facility karna sees that achievement if you look at the currency index for our democracy you see he's halfway down against us all and at first asked me to see you to see some of these emergency stabilizing a same level now one of the most important situations have even counted with the regime office is the technology the Internet it's remarkable because wouldn't have a situation like you say that you like can't get and after that they actually did meet Bob for nothing to the latest technology so you have a situation where the heating taught something Safaricom which was is a money transfer service called Meza and people without any possibility without a caution this is having it really better the impact on these happy said if you look at it with Internet users in rich mommies China 805 million grab uses more than that the EU impressed mind and sense of the country and we look at all these companies regalado China India they got Brazil Russia these all these countries in the number of internet uses all of them are well over the 30 day and if you look at India in all of you to see one example across the Savin all over the world smartphone costs coming down dramatically as a percentage GDP so you see you maybe have a smartphone he'd get out the 50 hours Chinese Air Force and then they need to sing crypto currencies you know I as so many of you are aware of the dark web not to speak and crypto currencies I use excessively in the dog bed because it causes the most states of all but the interesting thing he said if you look at the Yousef good the car sees share despondency silence of society David shared responses response recently used our own cryptocurrencies Russia is right at the top turkey at the top alone here there's a South Africa - Tina Mexico Indonesia China that shouldn't eat etc so this is again an indication that the impact which the first thing people ask us is what is the risk in tourism office and of course we do not escape any investment but important things to look at some of the macro factors and if you look at debt as a percent of GDP is right up there equal to kinda less UK all right the secret India 305 a debt as a percent of GDP their austerity market obviously he was the US and UK so indeed one of the most important is this arm deserves the own reward or country starts TPS without money out and you have an example society where the civil engg army service you would see Brazil Russia India on reserves to GDP ratio natural desire then in the UK before marriage yes good as ESG environmental social services are now questions why I was asked when investing in huge evolution also be good and the answer of course is that performance really is good ESD says at this time shows you that since 2009 the MSCI Emerging Markets yes use index before much better than regular market index so weird a lot more attention to ESG and the interesting thing is that normal money is going into ESD strategies I think here you can see institutional investors did one or more money into PhD strategies and by 2016 math something like prank keep us in those strategies and growing just close look at the situation here machine I'll give you some payment on that you can see see Nagas GDP growth over 20 years a bad year in 2001 a negative situation but look at 2010 2011 2012 hate the sin plus rose and the process of decline I believe that genomic in reach Eve that hi big Central's going forward if my policies the freedom to be mad and grow so the situation historical exactly looks very very good the stock exchange in Texas is the MSCI Emerging office she not index and you can see through the last 10 years it's limited cyclists the frustrations along the way but this need is the base for another big map move in the index gift policies thank you very much appreciate your attention
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