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so as we all know the economic landscape has been going down and it's been pretty dire for some time right now so the problem is nobody knows exactly what's going to happen next in the economic landscape but with ray dalio he's actually stated some things which are relevant to your personal finance that could actually potentially help you when it comes to improving your financial position in this economic situation so there was this interview that was released a couple of days ago where ray dalio talks about finance where he said it's pretty much crazy to want to own a cash or bonds and he does actually give us a key piece of information on what you should do when it comes to regarding your personal finance that i'll talk about later but first let's look at this clip of the interview where he actually talks about this and gives us some first pieces of information and what's interesting about this interview is that he pretty much states that there is probably going to be some kind of inflation he doesn't really give us a true prediction but he does discuss that there is probably gonna be some monetary inflation coming in the future and it's interesting to see his take on it so can i infer then that you're suggesting we're going to have an inflationary period ahead because of this what you're just outlined there are two types of inflation okay let me just clarify your supply demand inflation like if demand is pressing up against capacity to produce things and maybe that's labor maybe that's um capacity constraints and so on so forth prices rise because of that and then there's monetary inflation and monetary inflation is because the currency and the value of money goes down and um so you can see like in the 1970s stagflation you could see not inflation is not coming from the first of those types of inflation it is coming from the second of those types of inflation and the way that would occur is because people don't want to own bonds to me it's pretty crazy to want to own cash or bots i'm more worried about the monetary inflation which will which would look something like a currency defense it means that what happens is as money let's say people don't like bonds and then they start to sell bonds and bonds then go down in value because they have a capital loss and they don't offer anything in interest rates negative real interest rates and so on they don't like that then the federal reserve or other central banks are faced with the choice of either rates rise and that is bad for financial asset prices and it's bad for the economy or they make the purchases they make money and they make the purchases of that and that then produces more of a monetary inflation so it's the second that i'm more concerned so if you just watch the clip in full you can clearly see exactly what ray dalio is talking about he said it's pretty crazy to want to own cash or want to own a bonds now this interview clip isn't long but on the bridge water associates website it goes much further into detail on why you shouldn't own this right and now so i'm going to go through this and basically tell you and basically walk you through exactly what this discusses and what it means for you so let's take a look at what this says why in the world would you own bonds when bond markets offer ridiculously lower yields real yields of a reserve currency sovereign bonds are negative and at the lowest ever now i just want to point out that this was written on the march 15th of 2021 so this is extremely relevant to today and this is not an old article by any means real yields of cash are even worse though not as negative as they were in the 1930 1945 and 1915 1920 a great monetization period nominal bond yields are just off the lowest ever made a couple weeks ago these extremely low or non-existent yields do not meet these asset holders funding needs for example pension funds insurance companies sovereign wealth funds and their saving accounts cannot meet their financial needs with these investments so holding bonds assures their failure to meet their obligations at the same time while there is some room for diversification benefit because of the limitations of how low interest rates can go bonds prices are close to their upper limit in price which makes being short them a relatively low risk bet the charts below go back to 1900 show these things real bonds yields nominal bonds yields and nominal slash real cash rates for a year for the united states europe and japan so these graphs show exactly what ray dalio is talking about showing us that the yields are the lowest ever the lowest since the world war ii era so he goes on to state the economics of investing in bonds and most financial assets has become stupid think about it the purpose of investing is to have money in a storeholder wealth that you can convert into buying power at a later date when one invests one when one invests one gives a lump sum payments for payments in the future let's look at what that deal and now looks like if i give 100 today how many years do i have to wait to get my hundred dollars back and then start collecting the reward on top of what i already gave and the united states europe japan and chinese bonds an investor has to wait roughly 42 years 450 years 150 years and 25 years respectively to get one's money back and then get low or nil nominal returns however because you're trying to store buying power you have to take into consideration inflation in the united states you have to wait over 500 years and you will never get your buying power back in europe or japan and in fact if you buy bonds in these countries now you'll be guaranteed to have a lot less buying power in the future rather than get paid less than inflation why not instead buy stuff any stuff that will equal deflation rather than get paid less than inflation why not instead buy stuff any stuff that will equal inflation or better we see a lot of investments that we expect do significantly better than inflation the charts below show these payback periods for holding cash and bonds in the us and both nominal and real terms as shown it is the longest ever and obviously a ridiculous amount of time as you can see from this graph this is the payback period and as you can see from this graph it will take 500 plus years to earn the principal back in real terms now this article does dive into a lot and you can view this on the bridge water research page so this is the part of the video that you really came for so it says looking ahead what to do now i do want to say that this part right here you should give it a read but this part right here is probably the most interesting it says looking ahead and what to do because i believe that we are in the late stage of this big debt cycle that mechanicalistically works in the way i described i believe cash is and will continue to be trash i.e have returns that significantly negative relative to inflation so it pays a to borrow cash rather than to hold it as an asset and b to buy higher returning non-debt investment assets so based on both how things have worked historically and what is happening now i'm confident that tax changes will also play an important role in driving capital flows to different investment assets and different locations and those movements will influence market movements if history and logic are to be a guide policy makers who are short on money will raise taxes and won't like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storeholds of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets for example gold and bitcoin and other locations so these tax changes could be more shocking than expected now before i continue to read the rest of this this right here is basically saying that because of what is happening right now because of everything that's going on with the united states economy and because people don't really have faith in a cash people are going to be moving their money into other storeholds of wealth other different wealth assets such as gold and bitcoin but this somewhat threatens the united states financial system so what is going to happen they could impose prohibitions against these capital movements to these other new assets and this is where we have people actually moving their assets into these things but he's also saying that this is actually a huge risk even though it's not really a huge risk it's somewhat huge risk because governments tend to crack down on these things now if we look at executive order 6102 this was something signed in april 5th 1933 by us president franklin d roosevelt now it forbidded the hoarding of the gold coin and basically was a sort of law that protected not really protected but prohibit people from holding gold now could this happen with the more modern day assets such as new assets such as bitcoin yes and we discussed this in a previous video where we talked about how countries like india and countries like the united states are discussing for the hope basically discussing for the prohibition of bitcoin now what's even crazier is that in a recent interview ray dalio actually did state that bitcoin is most likely to get banned so let's take a look at this so ray dalio states right here the government outlawing bitcoin is a good probability so he did say this in the interview that we just really discussed so back in the 30s in the war years because cash and bonds were such bad investments relative to other things there was movement to these other things as it is right now and then because the government didn't want this the government outlawed them the dalio told the yahoo finance on wednesday they outlawed gold which i literally had just talked about so that's why outlawing bitcoin is probably a good probability so bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market value and has actually proven itself as the blockchain hasn't been hacked and it has a huge large following and the problem with bitcoin which isn't really a problem is that it's not actually living up to its original permits which is to be a form of payment it's actually becoming the storehold of wealth and now it keeps going up in value and increasing in rarity we know that many more people are putting their money into it so he said so i think it would be very likely that you have it under certain set of circumstances that it will be outlawed the way that gold was outlawed it continues to say every country treasuries its monopoly on controlling the supply and demand they don't want other monies to be operating or competing because things can get out of control now this is all good and all crazy and of course he additionally talks about elizabeth warren's proposed wealth tax and why this is really bad because it could be a place that becomes inhospitable to capitalism and to capitalist so it's unlikely to pass it this year but the chances of the world tax passing over the next few years are quite significant so conflicts can increase and of course people can leave so this is what he thinks you should do for these reasons i believe a well-diversified portfolio of non-debt and non-dollar assets along with a short cash position is preferable to a traditional stock bond mix that is heavily skewed to us dollars i also believe that assets in the mature developed reserve currency countries will underperform the asian including chinese emerging countries markets and i also believe that one should be mindful of tax changes and the possibility of capital controls so this is something that probably relates to you more than what was just said so on reddit basically a forum website that most you probably know about ray dalio didn't ask me anything it's basically an interview process where literally anyone that uses the website reddit can pose a question so one person said hi ray big fan of your series the changing world order on linkedin and how it explores the current big cycle trends related to the decline of the united states and the rise of china as i read through the series i can't help but wonder what should i do with this information what actions can the average person in the united states take to mitigate the potential negative impacts of the changing world order on the country and on their own life so ray dalio then gives a great response he then says save and put your savings into a well diversified mix of currencies countries and asset classes so that your savings will not depreciate in value and will be enough to help cushion the bumps think broadly rather than narrowly think broadly rather than narrowly about the environments that you might be in so that they are safe satisfying and economical pay attention to the patterns in history and how they compare with what is going on as a way of thinking about the possibilities do these things without being stressed and i recommend that you meditate so this kind of information basically says that right now you need a diversified portfolio among a range of different asset classes the old method of stocks and bonds doesn't work as well as it used to what you need right now is a mix of all different kinds of asset classes and in a recent video of ours we talked about the many different assets that rich people are purchasing to hedge their bets against the next market crash and against future volatility so you might want to check this out without further ado we'll see you in the next video
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