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welcome to Episode seven seventy six Howard Marks mastering market cycles is an outline of episode 776 there are two reasons we study Howard Marks first as co-founder of oaktree capital here's an annual average return of 19 percent in the past 25 years is one of the best investor in the world second he's the world's expert on market cycles Howard Marks he's the co-chairman of oaktree capital which manages over a hundred and twenty billion dollars in assets each what is the difference between master and market cycle and timing the market I think timing the market is guessing yet what's going to happen tomorrow in my opinion the key to mastering the market cycle is understanding where it is today we never know what's going to happen tomorrow and the people who think they do tend to screw up but if we have a sense for where it is we know something about the probability distribution of returns that we're facing and I think that's about the best we can do oh it mops was born in New York City in 1946 to Jewish background that he was raised as Christian Science in 1967 he earned a degree in finance on the Wharton School you of Pennsylvania you years later an MBA from University of Chicago his first job from 1969 to 1985 he worked at Citibank rising to ice president in 1985 he joined TCW where he was responsible for investment in high-yield bonds and convertible securities in 1995 Howard Marks and Bruce cash and three other employees at TCW left the firm to found oaktree capital management you know we said what we said at the time was that we wanted to have a firm that ran our way you know we were in the aggressive risk oriented asset classes like high-yield bonds and convertibles and distressed debt and opportunistic real estate and emerging markets so forth and our approach was to be the controlled risk option in some risky asset classes and that was a big part of our philosophy and everything we do at oaktree now runs according to the same philosophy is its implemented differently because markets are different but the underlying philosophy is the same and an annual return of 19 percent in 2020 our boss is a multi billionaire his company oaktree capital has assets under management of more than a hundred and twenty billion dollars in 2017 he wrote a book mastering the market cycle going in cash is stupid - and the answer is going to cash we don't go to cash and go into cash almost under almost all circumstances stupid go to cash you have to be right right away because if you go to cash and we're and prices start keep going up for a while as they invariably will and and returns continue to be positive you fall so bar behind by being in cash that you may even jeopardize your business's stay in business you never know when we if you read the book as I hope you will you'll see that we don't think about when is the turn gonna come or when is the bottom gonna come and in fact when is one of the words I reject in our business because we sometimes have an idea what's going to happen and we never know when the market is a little bit volatile I mean the economy is a little bit volatile times it's up three and sometimes it's a up one and sometimes it's down one company profits are more volatile because companies are leveraged operating and financial but market prices do this because they're driven by people by people's emotion by what we call human nature and so to to figure out when things are going to happen you would have to be able to predict emotion which is impossible in picking stops value approach which is easier than growth value as you write in the book a more important thing than growth value is here and now growth is potential in the future if you could quantify and predict growth you could make a lot of money but you can't do it that consistently it's much less likely to be a mistake if you quantify value in the here and now thank you for watching please subscribe and leave your questions and comments below my next video will be our and mocks ten lessons wishing everyone peace and prosperity
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