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would you sell Tesla covered coals especially in this environment considering they may might B bounce back sharply if so how would you do this DTE is date to expiration or days to expiration the strike Etc so this is a great question and this is this vexes me all the time so this morning looking at the spike on things like Tesla shot up to 220 I think it's up I don't know 6 7% for the day big move and then you get really juicy cprs you can lock up but what happens if it goes up under 20 bucks you're toast you're high and dry so you can play it but you got to play it like you're scalping options wait for a spike sell get the premium and buy back instantly because as I always say as well you don't want to get in front of a freight train and there are things like Bitcoin and Tesla that you know bit coin you can you can when you identify range you can scalp it very effectively uh Tesla is more dangerous so let me explain why so you did uh touch on a very key word and that is uh might bounce back well here is an example of the Tesla price action over the last year and 14 months or something but you can see I drew in some red arrows um couple of things just really really simple and I won't be able to do a deep cover cool dive here but I'll share a couple little tricks that I use is number one never sell under the 200 day moving average okay so if you look at the red line there and I do a little kind of slightly uh off horizontal line on the right hand side that is the 200 day moving average we are very far very far below the 200 day moving average therefore never sell under here second green one by the way is a 50-day just so you know sometimes you can get nice little crosses to help you identify when it's going to go in a rampage second look at the big spike up when when Tesla moves it moves fast and it'll go up 50% 80% sometimes it doubles in a matter of a couple of trading days or a week or two you don't want to sell those coals because you got to chase after them and buy them back or you could lose your existing position I only do it when I'm at these red arrow levels at the top and I don't mind being patient I don't mind wait waiting but things like Tesla I only hedge or sell covered coils against my large existing position when I am absolutely confident we're at a top but anywhere in the middle I do not touch also look for the squeezes of price like it's very clear that when you look at like things like my price targets uh and the volatility levels you can see quickly when it runs out of gas there was that interesting double top on the right let me pop it up here lately that kind of is a bit of a head fake not a a good sign pretty clear that it was probably running out of steam but you never know what Tesla because they could come out with absolutely mind-blowing numbers or margins or whatever Q3 it's hard to say what the earnings will look like I think there's so much negative sentiment out there normally Tesla sells off after earnings but people think the sky is falling people think demand for the cars is tanking that's why I did my video on Saturday regarding Tesla and I believe it's completely oversold I think we could get a nice earning surprise again they need to focus on margin forget all the temporary headwinds of deliveries and Logistics and stuff like that but just look at margin that is really the key next question uh this is from Anand Gupta at current market price for Tesla Google Amazon and paler which one do you prefer for long-term investment and why I have risk appetite and do not own any of these stocks not Financial advice of course thank you manand great question so um I could I do have thoughts and I'm working on trying to identify the recession headwinds for names like Amazon Google paler they're all beaten down uh there's a couple of interesting ones in there like paler um paler because of their nature of their business and because we're in such a scary War macro climate there could be a lot of potential there but I still think it is a little bit overvalued and it's very uncertain where that company is going despite their technology being quite amazing Amazon again recession at the second prime day because it's so desperate to make up numbers but that is the force to be reckoned with especially with AWS being worth at least a trillion dollars um Google is just a machine we're all here on Google right now uh and also pretty Recession Proof but they've been beaten down by a lot of regulatory concerns Etc the only one that I think is the safest bet you ask for one is of course Tesla and these are my price predictions I put together over the weekend assuming a PE 50 uh and it's so funny because I a lot of people think you know because the sentiment so negative people are saying oh Tesla's going to go to $80 I'm going to buy it at $80 it's kind of like the same people who talk about Bitcoin going to$ three and half thousand so I just don't see that happening uh the the growth is too rapid uh the models that are coming out is quite impressive and if you dig into Tesla and look at how they manufacture no other car company can come close and how they nail design it's just I where have you one of the key things that I really came across uh researching this video over the last week and of all time is how influential the model Y is and how successful that car is all over the world normally you have a certain model is very successful in a certain country but these are selling like hotcakes in USA number one California which is like the fifth sixth biggest car market in the world Germany China all of these very disperate countries all chose this car and that's what they're scaling for that's what they're building so I think the best risk reward investment right now is Tesla still and when I did the video the price was 205 bucks now it's $220 so it's gone up 15 bucks since I did the video and I know it's beaten down they had the worst worst week in as far as I can remember and uh we'll see where this goes but the key numbers here is if you have the time frame if you have the patience and you can wait two three four years this will be mark my words the biggest company in the world barring any anything terrible happens to the leadership Etc uh but basically this company could 5x by 2026 and also my price targets there that you saw don't include any of the gravy they don't include FSD Revenue they don't include their insurance business they don't include the energy business Etc solar roofs just cars assuming just a 30% margin and we know those margins are going north they're going Way Beyond 30% they're pretty much at 29% right now and every month they get better at scaling and Manufacturing I think the the the Giga Factory in China is just blowing through all records all the time despite the hardship so and then that's my my answer next question is from zir Burger what are your views on liquid staking such as lios Stater Etc would you deem them safe and possibly worth a risk for quick liquidity and potential usage on di5 protocols I like I like one of the things you said there about quick there's there's no harm in getting in and out of these things but you don't want to leave your money there fulltime and let me explain why uh first of all uh as you know Lio is a decentralized staking protocol that allows you to easily stake your tokens at to earn staking rewards but typically does this on eth and eth 2.0 to earn passive income but you need at least 32 eth in order to set up your own validator to stake with eth but with Lio you don't need that which is cool so that is one big Advantage another Advantage is there are strategies with Lio where you can compound your apy by taking on risk further liquid stake allows you to unstake restake sell it will but there's a catch and that's the Reliance on the state eth and the state eth is you got to watch very carefully there's always a big deviation so between the actual eth price and staked eth and sometimes it could be more than 5% and that is big if you're looking to get a return of 6% and your staked eth Delta is 5% it negates all your gains but the other risks and I'm glad you're aware of the risks it's important to understand there are many depending on the type of platform whether you're saking eth solid Etc you have to consider smart contract risks and after all we've seen and D5 protocols happen over the last year with the hacks and the losses and the failures Etc it is very very risky still the Wild West it's probably safest just to directly stake your crypto on the protocol with a validator and that's what I do for less than a third of my bag and this not only produces more award for you but it's also less risky because you are not using an intermediary like Lido also risk return considerations if you're chasing yields you're better off yield farming on Landing protocols or providing liquidity to amms rather than staking if that's your game and again Reliance on staked eth basically is an i to eth and when you get the stake eth which represent your stake eth it represents a huge risk that you relying on this to continue to be pegged and we've seen how it lost the Peg and the fourth thing that we've seen lately is regulatory risk huge risk especially with the SEC taking a hard look at these protocols right now you know the SEC probably has big Wall Street Banks behind them they're saying Get rid of this this is hurting our business and we saw Bank earnings some of them a little better many a little worse than expected so when you stake uh a token on the L1 protocol you're basically providing more security to the network and if you already believe in the protocol enough to hold a token then staking the token on the L1 isn't going to incur much additional risk so that is kind of uh where we are with that and our take on the subject I hope that helps next question this is regarding the inflation reduction Act of 2023 is from cryptog gal corporate BuyBacks will come with a 1% excise tax many companies have announced aggressive buyback plans maximizing the value of their assets so they are likely to have a solid end of the year despite the market agree this is weird because I am watching very carefully the story around Tesla stock buyback so my simple calculus for stock BuyBacks is it makes sense if a stock is more than 20% undervalued say for example the fair value for Tesla for me is at least sandbagged 330 bucks at least and it's Way Beyond 20% undervalued second if a company has excess cash I think Tesla has 19 billion in excess cash they should use some of it h third if a company generates free cash it's you know if all these get ticks then it's a no-brainer they should do it h and then wait for a rebound and sell the stock now the question is regarding this 1% excise tax should this be an incentive for companies to rush to do it before year end because the excise tax goes into effect January 1st 2023 I don't think it makes sense to rush to a decision like that uh for the saving of 1% excise tax which also is not tax deductible isn't that funny you're paying a tax is not tax deductible but um we'll see I do think there will be some stock bya take advantage of this before year end especially if the stock is really really beaten down like many names are way way oversold in my opinion so great question next question is from mainstage news does the prospect of self-driving cars cause concerns in the long term for real estate prices for example 1 to 5 years we'll have level four level five will become a reality 10 to 20 years widely accepted and owning a car is no longer common place and 15 to 30 years parking lots and garages are no longer needed for every building huge increase in land Supply excellent question so in fact I had dinner last night with a top developer in San Francisco we spoke about exactly this so let's first of all talk about a sneak preview with what's going on in the world so you can see Uber lift and we've seen the changes happen to cities people no longer drive and park in cities they commute with an Uber because it's cheaper than paying for parking so we're already seeing a huge amount at least in San Francisco I've witnessed over the past 10 years a lot of parking garages have been demoed and they built office spaces or condos so that's already happening so you're on the money there second uh autonomous vehicles and impact in real estate garages already been replaced as I mentioned because of uber and lift this will accelerate there will be fewer parking garages and the prices will become so expensive because supply and demand an increase in parking uh prices will make driving into a city completely prohibitive and which means more space in cities for living and that brings me to my next point and this is this regarding the vehicle impact on cities barring any future plagues which caused a lot of people to leave the city over the last two years now they're coming back and it's estimated that 65% of people will live in cities by the year 2050 this is just a lot more to do it's a lot more convenient um as long as the city is well organized now my vision I've been talking about this for a while is the fact that people will still work in cities but live far away at the weekend so for example there might be an autonomous vehicle that will drive them in from the countryside on a Monday morning very early they'll be able to lay flat in the car sleep in it and work till Thursday and then jump back in that same vehicle and have them sleep in the way home and then spend the next 3 4 days at home in their beautiful Lush nature Countryside so that people have the city living pleasure and the rural pleasure too if that's what they want now the other thing to consider really is the suburbs this is kind of where it gets interesting so not only you'll have big changes in the actual cities but but also I believe the Suburban impact will be a little bit different houses near public transport will be less popular because you'll be able to jump in an automated vehicle to take you to the transportation if you need it maybe public transport will also become kind of less attractive as well especially when you see how some of those public transport things are actually run they're dirty and unhygienic and delayed Etc now people also will now be able to live further away in Far More remote areas and you know a lot of trend now moving Off the Grid the key is to having things like water internet is now possible with starlink uh electricity solar so it's now much easier than ever before as long as you can Farm your own food and hybrid living I.E that Robo taxi 200 miles out Monday to Friday Monday to Thursday whatever extends home range and the other thing that's kind of cool is I do believe having autonomous vehicles will help elderly people be independent for longer and live alone which is I think a big bonus they can just call up their car they can turn their garage into more living space uh and families are kind of cohabitating but Main Street news I think there are bigger factors at play Beyond autonomous vehicles which will have an impact on real estate but number one this is kind of more more impactful and that is uh demographic changes your parents got a mortgage you got a student loan so I'm talking about your par like if if somebody out there is in their 20s for example nearly 40% of M Millennials between the ages of 25 and 37 have bachelor's degrees and back in the day less than a quarter of baby boom Boomers have a bachelor's degree this means that Millennials are proportionately more educated and More in debt and they don't have assets that create wealth so that student debt is not a mortgage and that's how the parents did a lot better also if you look at the amount of wealth by generation it's only 4.3% for Millennials and that big red chunk well that's where all the money's at but Baby Boomers and older that money will be changing hands and that will have a huge impact on where the market goes where this money will go and how Millennials invested that's going to really tell you exactly what to do and I do believe Millennials want to travel they'll want to live in places parttime and move all around maybe do gigs in different parts of the world and see the world so that's much more tune with how I see things going there's also this other aspect here is the Modern Family structure it's also changing very R rapidly I I touched on this a couple of weeks ago and how living arrangements have changed living with a spouse has fallen from over 80% to 38% straight down uh living with parents and other relatives up from 10% to 30% nearly and living with an unmarried partner is up to 17% living alone has been flat it's been kind of steady which is is good and living with roommates it's also up slightly but the question is I think multi-generational households will be a thing of the future there'll be more people living together grandparents parents children children children could be four generations in one house and I think that will be an interesting one too especially if you can build a house that has both privacy and common areas for everybody so I think that'll be more impactful than autonomous vehicles to be honest so but it's very very important when you are investing in real estate you got to look 10 years out at least with will the population grow will there be demand do you have feeders for your property etc etc as we go forward finally best part of the week is uh helping animals big thank you to people in the community and kiwi robin bringing this to our attention uh there is um an association called wild Futures and they they are struggling right now because of hardship over the pandemic Etc and they are trying to keep their little beautiful Sanctuary open and we are helping with that too so big thank you everybody for that and hope you like it sorry about the Rough and Ready quick and dirty circumstances but I'll be here for the next couple of days thank you all H sorry I've got to run to a meeting no time to take your questions but I promise I'll make up for it later in the week okay got to run thanks all love you all bye
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