저자: Kevin · 외국인
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기업 실적 호조에도 공급망 차질과 광범위한 인플레이션이 지속되어 연준이 금리를 더 올릴 수밖에 없다고 주장. 숏 포지션 증가와 수익률곡선 평탄화를 위험 신호로 제시. 2월 CPI가 기대보다 나쁠 경우 연준 긴축 우려로 주식 하락 가능성을 경고. RSI 과매도 신호는 신뢰하지 말라고 함. 인플레이션이 꺾이는 U턴 전까지는 매수하지 않겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
in this video i'm going to talk about six very important things that you need to pay attention to in order to evaluate whether or not you should be short or along this market folks you don't hear this kind of content anywhere else and i would highly encourage you watch the entire video because there is a lot in this one-to-one package let's get right into this quick note that this video is brought to you by extra linked down below and of course my courses on building your wealth today is my birthday and since today is my birthday that does mean the coupon code on building your wealth does expire tonight i know it has been a volatile time but folks the time to have somebody who can help you share ideas in terms of what's going on in this market in private course member live streams or i insights on what i'm shorting if i'm shorting when am i going back in what am i doing what indicators am i looking for folks you can get all of that the stocks and psychology of money program link down below it's also very common for people to bundle that with a real estate investing course which i've got huge updates coming out for in real estate so you want to pay attention to that especially with the market and of course people are bundling the path to wealth course as well which will be updated to include exactly what to do in sort of situations like these bear markets so we might be heading into might anyway let's get right into this so first earnings a lot of folks are extremely optimistic about earnings suggesting that we should essentially reach all-time highs again because of well positive earnings at companies like apple or companies like microsoft providing decent guidance take a look at this particular commentary here this particular person wrote apple earnings are astounding in this crazy market i think i'm going to put all my money in apple for now this is literally herd mentality this is the opposite of the psychology of money now i know some folks have been very confused as to how potentially selling could be part of the psychology of money but we're going to talk about that in this video but folks the last thing that we want to do is in my opinion follow the herd into apple but instead what we want to do is use apple as an indicator because here's the thing apple and microsoft are two of the biggest weights that are holding up the s p 500 and the nasdaq the market turmoil market pain has not yet fully spread to daily mainstream discussions on the streets and in coffee shops and and throughout our society that's when we know we have a real bear market when there is literally blood on the streets because people are freaking out about what's happening in the market and the potential for a recession right now what we're getting is money managers on cnbc playing a freaking violin saying no this is normal this is normal all we're doing is rotating into quality and to companies with higher free cash flow look just because a company does not have profits today and is investing substantially for the future does not make it a low quality company that is an excuse for money managers to keep money under management because that's after all how many managers get paid so keep that in mind but what happened with apple earnings apple earnings did crush it right exactly they did apple earnings were phenomenal the only item of sales that was actually in decline was ipad ipad sales which i was shocked by i thought ipads were in incredible demand and folks this is where we have to understand what's actually happening ipad sales were in incredible demand but apple of all companies in the world one of the biggest companies in the world is having massive supply chain issues to where a lot of apple stores don't even have ipads in stock a lot of their products like new laptops are back ordered and folks apples tim cook himself says that in inflationary supply chain shortages have gotten substantially worse and hopefully will start getting better but only because apple is doing their best to navigate them better not because supply chain shortages are actually getting better so add these two things together and this is just the earnings part of this video add these two things together people spending more money like crazy on stuff like apple products which was reiterated by visa that people are spending like crazy we know the bank said people have more money uh in their bank accounts we don't expect those bank balances to grow this year because of the removal or the lack of new stimulative measures but people have a lot of money and people are spending the money like crazy but wait a minute what happens when you add more demand for goods and services which is literally what we're seeing with still persistent supply chain issues which is literally why raytheon took a 150 million dollar loss it is why 3m is delaying guidance because they're so confused in terms of supply chain issues it is why ge says they are having issues with persistent supply chain issues and nobody really sees this issue being over until 2023.
mcdonald's had a 15 increase in operating costs why because of these inflationary pressures now look i used to be in camp transitory and look i know that was not a very popular camp because it was wrong it was very wrong and it was wrong because we got new waves of covid that made it wrong that made the supply chain issues unrecoverable and the stimulus pacifier became larger and larger and now we're under the weight of this massive pacifier causing a lot of freaking inflation but that inflation is not getting better it's broadening and this is bad when inflation broadens it means that the federal reserve has to act quickly to fight to bring inflation down and when companies are complaining about worsening supply chain issues you've got to understand that earnings calls are your best leading indicator of these problems they're not cpi looking one month back they are ceos going to answer the questions of analysts this week and next week saying supply chain issues are disastrous even tesla's elon musk said the same thing supply chain issues are holding everything back so when you couple strong earnings or what's normally good news with supply chain constraints you actually end up getting bad news because this is a signal to the federal reserve that inflation has broadened and we need to do more to control inflation which means raising interest rates but i want you to ask yourself this when the federal reserve which is now expected raises interest rates a half of a percent on march 16th do you actually think consumers are going to stop spending how much demand is actually going to go down and how quickly is that demand actually going to go down for goods and services by consumers and businesses to actually bring inflation down my expectation is it's going to do virtually nothing and if a half percent did virtually nothing then we got to get to the point where yields on bonds uh start going up even higher and the discount rate at the federal reserve goes up even higher to actually start having a constraining effect on the economy okay let's pause on that for a moment we'll come back to inflation but i want you to think about that how much do we actually have to raise rates to get people to stop spending like crazy the more you hear about how strong our gdp is the worse it is let's now talk about the short squeeze and then we're going to come back to gdp and inflation we're going to wrap it up with this and it's scary but i i don't want to sound like a mega bear here number two shorts on the federal reserve announcement date or meeting uh date where we had the press conference from jerome powell i expected that we would see a short squeeze in small caps i was wrong about this rather than seeing shorts get offloaded for what could have been a hedged event which would have meant that jerome powell's actions were priced in and that the market didn't have any further to fall and if the market didn't have any further the fall and the fed's actions were priced in then we should see shorts off load and and uh we potentially see valuations of small caps come back up right unfortunately that's not what happened what happened instead shorts actually increased in fact we're starting to see record levels of shorting in various different markets not only the united states stock market but other markets like the hong kong stock exchange has hit record levels of short selling this is because short selling is not only where the money is being made right now but institutions are more and more increasing the size of their hedge bets that this market has the potential falling some of that has to do with the fact that the yield curve is inverting and it's a crystal clear sign that we have problems but we'll we'll talk about that in a bit we don't need to we haven't inverted yet there's just there's fears anyway the fact that shorts are going up is bad because it means more selling pressure in the short term that's not good so keep this in mind good earnings with high inflationary pressures is actually the worst case scenario shorts going up is more selling pressure and it usually manifests in retail buying the dip and then getting screwed by institutions later in the day now we need a we got to understand what our next catalyst is but now for a quick message from our sponsor folks getting into real estate in my opinion is the best way to build your wealth in order to get into real estate you gotta have a great credit score you gotta stay out of consumer debt so that way you can qualify for more for those of you who are young or may have run into some trouble in the past there are very few ways of getting your credit score up unfortunately with the exception of using credit cards and if you don't use a credit card properly it could actually prevent you from building wealth and that's where folk all right cpi data is expected to come out on february 10th at 5 30 in the morning california time i will be covering it live as usual right now we do not have year over year expectations out just yet for inflation but month over month inflation expectations are expected to be 0.5 percent which means inflation is still moving at an annualized pace of six percent it is substantially too high for the federal reserve to ignore and i need to make this so clear because people still don't understand this the fed does not care about your stock values the fed only cares because jerome powell said it himself about the stock market to the point where it affects employment and to the point where it affects inflation and right now a roaring stock market is or what had been a growing stock market is just feeding people's wealth impression and leading them to spend more money that is actually bad for inflation and we've got plenty of job openings so even if we raised rates and compressed job openings a little bit we would still have a massive amount of labor demand so we have no issue with the federal reserve needing to make businesses want to hire people more they already want to hire people enough they've got to deal with inflation and the cpi read on february 10th is going to be one of our early catalysts for potentially a u-turn so that we could finally go back to a rallying and optimistic market the problem with the cpi catalyst is if the cpi catalyst comes in worse than expected which is the trend that we're on the federal reserve will start seeing the bond market price in more action by the fed and this is what happens more inflation comes in worse or the worse inflation comes in the more the market starts pricing in that the fed is going to be much more aggressive and if the fed's more aggressive stocks get whacked don't kid yourself that you could flee to safety in the financials or an apple those are good until they're not now i will say though one of the things that has been doing very well are oil prices and therefore gas or energy related companies not only have oil prices and gas prices been rising because geopolitical tensions not just in china but in russia and the ukraine but because of fears of a potential recession and attacks on oil plants in the middle east all of this is pure pressure on energy prices and folks what is one of your largest components within cpi energy prices so in addition to companies basically telling us people are demanding more but supply is more constrained energy prices continue to rise home prices and rents have not shown any sign of alleviation so in other words the core components of cpi are increasing not decreasing now there are some statistics that suggest that used car prices might finally be inflecting down which is fine but if used car prices are just offset by higher labor costs higher input costs higher rent prices and higher energy costs or higher food prices which exactly what a mcdonald's is feeling then it don't matter if used car prices go down these car prices might start plummeting because used car prices might potentially go into essentially a recession because the economy broadly might go into a recession which just means we end up with inflation as used cars get cheaper again it does not matter anyway is what i'm saying uh this is why originally the fed and myself believed that inflation was transitory ah it's just used cars it's just travel like hotels and stuff this is normal we expected those prices to skyrocket with the beginning of the chip shortages and the reopening boom but now the problem is those aren't the issues anymore everything else is the issue now dangerous very dangerous okay something that's critical that we have to pay attention to is known as the relative strength index and a lot of trading finance gurus and stuff are trying to say oh we're oversold right now that means we're definitely in a buy time and destined for a reversal because what they do is say hey look right here this was 2018 this right here was the pandemic and look if we go right here to the weak chart see the little blue lines that means we were oversold anytime that line goes below that horizontal right here it means we're technically oversold according to this one indicator which you should never make a trading decision based off just one indicator it should be the confluence of the most important factors that are going on in the economy and with a particular stock or company at a time right but anyway this over here would be the overbought condition here's the problem though and people regularly forget this they're like oh look when it was blue here and here that was by time well now oh look it's blue so it must be buy time that's sort of the logic right well let's hop on over here and show you how that logic is so flawed let's go over here and this is the march 2020 pandemic let me show you uh where you would have bought had you bought when we first moved into an oversold condition which is what we're in right now all right let's follow this rsi chart right here to the oversold territory ah there we go we're oversold on february 25th we went to an oversold condition and this is when the s p 500 fell uh about three percent uh in a day uh and in a week it probably fell somewhere around ten percent so you got this nice curve down from about 339 to roughly the low 300s lost about 30 points there 310-ish 313.
uh and so you would have been buying the s p 500 or the spy in this case at about 3 30. okay cool you got 10 off oh wow we're oversold by the dip right but take a look at this we stayed bobbing along the overbought condition from february 25th all the way through the bottom for another month the problem is had you had patience you would have saved another 30 you would have gotten another 30 off coupon code on the courses link down below on building your wealth that teach you this kind of logic and gives you a freaking update when i think there are problems in the market i'd rather tell you the truth than ladies oh sorry we're talking about the rsi uh 30 uh discount on the s p 500 uh okay so that's an issue keep that in mind don't be misled by this garbage next folks the yield curve is once again flattening and this is bad all you have to do is type in the 10-year two-year curve on google and you will immediately get the 10-year minus the two-year from st louis uh the st louis federal reserve and after the j-pal meeting and it's not ideal but after the j-pal meeting it started happening again folks the yield curve started flattening flattening basically just means going to zero and the issue is when it trends towards zero and ultimately becomes negative without going into all the details of the ten the the inversion of the earthquake again it could signal a recession so if we zoom out you can see look at this downtrend right here and then we had we did have a pandemic recession here which is kind of wild because nobody really thinks that the the inverted yields curve could predict the pandemic but it is an indicator that maybe we might revert back to this trend and have the recession we were supposed to have before the pandemic uh kind of delayed everything with all the stimulus we got now the last thing i want to talk about is this video that i put together and i created this and made this obviously not the titanic video but this is a scene from the titanic and i put the overlays on and i just want to point out a few things that's that are very very important in this i pretend you've got folks storming into essentially the bridge of the titanic but it's as if it's the white house and the fed are like oh my gosh look the economy is is freaking out and we've got all this inflation in all these different compartments in other words the ship is filling with water we're sinking right and impatient investors which is this guy over here the impatient investors are like come on man by the dip we're going to the moon like stop this nonsense like get get back to driving the ship uh and and the person who helped design this ship is like you're out of your mind there is so much inflation we've got massive issues here uh and this is a critical part right now right here uh and obviously he makes references to water levels i make references to inflation but we could sustain certain levels of inflation in this case i wrote three to four percent we could sustain that and rates can push this down but the problem with the titanic was water spread to too many different compartments of the ship and when too many different compartments of the ship fill with water you can't isolate those and call the problem transitory anymore it becomes a persistent problem a broadened problem both have recently like within the last weeks reiterated that inflation is broadening and that's very very bad and so this means and as i sort of show here in the video that we have a big flip here when the federal reserve at our institutions start suggesting uh oh we have an inflation problem that is broadening well that could lead to a lot of substantial pain and the pain comes wave after wave after wave but you've got to ask yourself where are we in the cycle now yes prices have come down the ship got damaged we got hurt we already lost some money we hit the iceberg but are we going to put on our fancy clothing now and go to dinner so we can listen to music with the orchestra and jim cramer telling us everything is fine or do we want to consider looking at the lifeboats this question is for you you have to make that decision i can't make that decision for you additionally you've got to ask yourself where are we in this sort of cycle here i think this is a beautiful representation of what's going on take a look at this uh i've got a stock here that could really excel really excel excel sell and so where are we is the question right where in this chart are we i'll tell you where i think we are sell sell sell so i was all right everybody freaks out this this is when you get blood on the street this is where you want to buy right when everybody's yelling sell if everybody's yelling by the dip you're probably more here where people excel what a cell why well think about it then you get this pandemonium which that's the nature of the cartoon and the nature of boom and bust cycles i can't take this anymore this madness i can't take it anymore somebody yells goodbye goodbye bye bye bye bye bye here's your momentum meme movement right and then and then of course it always cycles back i got a stock here uh so anyway you got to ask yourself this but put together the pieces of the puzzle folks j-pow is no longer our friend that's because he has to fight inflation and i cannot buy in this market until i get a u-turn on inflation which we're not getting in earnings calls cpi reports everything everything is reiterating it's getting worse not better and i cannot buy until j-pal u-turns so one of those got to happen now some folks quick note are thinking oh but but uh what about like with omicron and how's omicron going to affect inflation yeah the problem with omicron is if anything people spent a little less in january which means we might get a little bit of a fake out of a cpi read in february showing that maybe inflation was a little bit less bad in january but it would be a fake out because when people go back to spending and we start getting our february data or late january data averaged into february it's gonna be a problem again if you'd like my perspective if not then leave a hate comment or a clown emoji and see you later
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