저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
미-중·러 제재 등 지정학 갈등으로 달러 체제가 흔들리며 1971년·1933년과 유사한 화폐가치 하락 국면에 진입 중이라 주장. 대규모 재정적자로 인한 화폐 증발이 인플레이션을 낳고 채권은 실질 마이너스 수익, 현금은 '쓰레기'가 됨. 스태그플레이션 가능성을 제시하며 다양한 대체 화폐(금, 암호화폐, CBDC 등)의 경쟁을 언급. 금리 인상은 시장·경제에 부담이 되어 연준이 난처한 상황이라고 진단.
다듬은 글
right now the US is imposing sanctions sanctions are it's an form of economic Warfare and it has a big implication for the dollar okay now others are trying to get out of the dollar system there's a dollar system that now is being uh changed India is dealing directly with Russia and holders of dollars and nominated assets don't want to hold those dollar ANS if they feel that they're going to be grabbed and so on so what's happening now has happened many times before and I learned this in my past uh because in 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and President Nixon gets on and he says um we're not going to give you the gold that the dollar is backed by and we had a devaluation it took me by surprise I walked on the floor of the stock exchange I thought it was going to go down a lot it went up a lot and that's because I never experienced the currency devaluation I found the same exact thing when I studied history same exact announcement took place on March 5th 1933 by Roosevelt and had the same effect so I understood then how history before me was important studying the Great Depression allowed me and Bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if I didn't study that what's happening now is very relevant the past is a guide to what's happening now as we are approaching a challenging of the world order in other words a great power challenging another there is an increased likelihood of some kind of War there are five kinds of Wars there's a trade War a technology War a geopolitical influence War a capital War which we're in the midst of and then there's a military war and those things Drive countries to be self-sufficient and independent and as a result globalization diminishes and nationalism increases it's not the stock market stock market so it's in the book it uh takes you through the stock markets during war periods and so the only thing that matters for stocks is the cash flows and as you get into the conflict that's a different story if you begin to see as it progresses those that are affected by the individual events have an effect for example tax stocks but anyway in in answer to the question how does it affect the markets it affects the value of money most fundamentally like what we're seeing now is that the value of money when you run very large deficits you have to spend a lot you have to spend a lot on uh social programs you have to spend a lot on defense you have to spend a lot on uh environmental programs and so on and so when you spend a lot more money than you earn then you have to print money to make up that difference to make the purchases and then that devalues money and so it's like the examples I gave you of the two currency devaluations that you had before 1971 led to the inflationary period of the 1970s and so you have the stock market yes the stock market goes up and other things but cash is trash and people then begin to learn that the bonds that they're holding have negative returns and it starts to change the value of money the value of dollars and so on so money goes into other assets it produces more of an inflation and you start to enter a certain type of environment and the environment that we're in is beginning to be very much like that of the 19 1970s there's two ways of dealing with debt you pay it back in hard money or you pay it back in soft money you pay it back in hard money and you have um a problem you have a depression so throughout history whenever that was done pay it back in hard money eventually that was abandoned and you print money that was what 71 was that was what March 1933 was and so I think that what you have to think about is the value of money how much money does one have in debt instruments and do you want to own that as an asset I think they're Bad Assets and then how do you diversify and the system also has to deal with um what is money is the dollar going to remain the same sort of Reserve currency and then you see the development of alternative monies we're seeing a variety I think different types of money will compete with each other in the environment we're in maybe it's crypto maybe it's U maybe it's gold maybe it's um other things uh maybe the digital MMB competes with the US dollar we're going to come into an environment think about how much money is being stored in Deb instruments those debt assets think about how poor those returns are so that kind of a shift I think is very important all currencies have a lot of debt so when you look at one relative to the other there will be a lot of printing I mean currency equals debt and when you hold a currency you're holding a debt instrument and so all of those will decline in value relative to other things now will the dollar decline more than other currencies it's almost certain that we're going to come into this environment we're in this environment in which there's a shifting of those currencies so you're going to see more of China's RMB being used you're seeing India have a direct link with Russia on the currency so we're an important change in the currency but how that is a store of wealth is a different question so a currency is a medium of exchange and a storeold of wealth and its storeold of wealth is now a problem particularly for the dollar but it's also a problem for other countries so that's why you have inflation as money goes into other things and the the cost of borrowing is so low relative to the inflation rate then encourages the borrowing of money and the sale of money in other words not holding Financial assets like that so that's yes I think you're changing the nature of what money is and what the dollar is as a storeold of wealth we're beginning a paradigm shift a paradigm shift is a shift from a mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and another positioning of that so for example the mindset that we were in was that you have low inflation and when you're owning bonds and you're owning cash or you are operating one way and you don't worry about that and companies don't worry about it in their inventories or having larger inventories or homeowners don't worry about inflation as much in the purchases of the houses and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing Dynamic it's like everybody is long bonds we've been in a 40-year bull market and bonds and so it's been fine to have and when that shift starts to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce that cycle in the Paradigm so for example when there is the selling of bonds that makes it more inflationary in and of itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but also the amount that debt that's being sold is those bonds so now interest rates have to rise a lot or the Federal Reserve has got to come in there and buy more and then you get wages people make wage settlements and such things so a paradigm shift is beginning to take place and that will be also self-reinforcing and it's taking place in this context of the conflict which then creates the breakdown of um efficient systems each country wants to be self-sufficient it needs to to protect itself and in being self-sufficient in that way then you have less efficiencies in the system and all of that becomes self-reinforcing so it's all happened before it's all happened many many times before yeah I'm concerned about that when you raise the return on bonds and you raise the return on cash and you tighten money then that makes other assets less attractive such as risky assets particularly long duration assets like tech stocks and the like so you produce that squeeze yes but that's still only at 2% or a little bit over 2% with an inflation rate which is considerably higher than that we've had a 7% inflation right and we'll probably SLE it'll be a 5% is or something and so you're still losing that money to inflation people are so what you have is enough tightening by the Federal Reserve to deal with inflation adequately is too much tightening for the markets and the economy so the FED is going to be in a very difficult place a year from now as inflation Still Remains high and it starts to pinch on both the markets and the economy here's the problem if you're borrowing more money than you're lending and you have a lot of debt you either are going to pay back in hard money or in soft money and so it creates a very difficult tradeoff so what can you do do you spend less money so that the tradeoff becomes more and more difficult and that's what brings about a stagflation environment because they Tred to navigate between those two undesirables in other words they want to contain inflation but too high of an interest rate that's good enough for inflation causes too much economic environment so what can they do no they're in a position already because of that Dynamic spending more than they're earning creation of a lot more debt and a lot of other debt which one man's debts are another man's assets and that as the holder of that assets is losing money imagine holding a bond now look at how much money is in bond funds and cash okay not only in cash you don't get any return to compensate for the interest rate and in your bond fund you get Negative returns and how's that feel so are you going to continue to hold those Bonds in that bond fund it's a dynamic that they have to deal with that is really Beyond on their capacity to deal with it they can't change those fundamentals I think that most likely what we're going to have is a period of stagflation and then you have to understand how to build a portfolio that's balanced for that kind of environment so every investment is an exchange of a lump sum payment for a future cash flow and so the cost of money is a consideration relative to the return on money and so when we look at that return when we say I can hold cash or I can hold a bond that changes the inclination to hold cash but also one has to look at the return expect a return on equities in other words one calculates the present value of future cash flows you estimate what are those earnings going to be in the future and what are they worth today stocks are now having expected returns which are not very much more than bonds which would be not very much more than cash so as that happens so that why should I own equities farther out you know and have the volatility of equities so that shift in the curve in other words the relationship between cash bonds and then the relationship between bonds and equities and the relationship for corporations between the rates at which they borrow at and the rates at which they can earn money at have a pervasive effect on the economy and the markets so no it's important to take a look at that relationship that yield curve structure that way but you should go beyond that and include the returns of other assets what can you do in the way of generating returns relative to the costs of money the relative attractiveness of those instruments you have to have an economy in which the people believe that you have a fair system and you have to have productivity so I would say the most important thing is the redistribution of opportunity to make people productive and to eliminate the internal conflict or to reduce the internal conflict which can be so disruptive when you see large wealth gaps and at the same time you see economic problems you have a lot of internal conflict and that internal conflict is bad economically and it's bad socially but it's not just the wealth Gap it is the productivity level that results and it's certainly going to be a political issue so when we talk about markets and the economy and all of these things we have to realize for example that um internal conflict will have a big effect
Comments 0