저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 팔란티어는 AI 활용 사례의 골드 스탠더드이며, 향후 2~3년 내 시가총액 1조 달러 도달 가능하다는 낙관적 전망. AI 시장 및 사업 전망: AI 활용 사례의 70~80%에 팔란티어가 관여하고 있으며, AI 시장 전체(약 3조 달러 규모) 중 30~40%가 소프트웨어로 귀속될 것이라고 주장. 미국 상업 부문 성장: 미국 상업 사업이 연 80~100% 성장 가능하다고 전망. 한 고객사(매출 2,500만~5,000만 달러 규모)가 향후 12개월 내 10억 달러 사업으로 성장할 궤도에 있다고 언급. 밸류에이션 정당화: 잉여현금흐름이 현재 20~30억 달러에서 향후 수년 내 70~80억 달러로 늘면 현재 밸류에이션이 정당화된다고 주장. 현재 시총 약 5,000억 달러, 잉여현금흐름 수익률 약 1.6%로 마이크로소프트 대비 높은 기대가 반영된 상태라는 진행자 지적 존재. 매출 구조 및 리스크: 상업 부문이 매출의 45%, 밸류에이션의 80~90%를 차지. 정부 부문은 셧다운 영향 가능성이 있으나 연방 부문은 AI 프로젝트 증가로 상회 가능성 제시. 투자자 심리: 기관은 과거 종목을 외면했으나 최근 관심이 높아지는 중이며, 개인투자자(리테일)가 기관보다 먼저 상업 부문 변화를 포착했다고 평가. 진행자는 팔란티어와 로빈후드 차트 유사성을 들어 자기강화적 열광과 과열 가능성을 경고. 출연자 전망 요약: 팔란티어 장기 성장 및 CEO 카프의 혁신성에 대해 매우 긍정적 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
So there's a lot to live up to. The valuation is big by any metric. The analyst community is expecting a lot whether it's at the high end of expectations or even the whisper numbers above that. So how do you assess it? I mean look, I I just continue to view it as the gold standard when it comes to AI use cases.
But from all of our work, 70 to 80% of every AI use case Palantir is ultimately involved with. And you when you put in like you you talk about in terms of the AI trip pieces of the puzzle I think this is going to be a trillion-dollar market cap in the next 2-3 years. So in terms of the actual quarter, US commercial business, that's that continues to really be the story here because you know as you start to look this is going to be ultimately a one two billion-dollar business.
That's I think valuation just over next year you miss what I view as really a transformational historical growth. but that's a lot of hyperbole around a story that you're obviously positive on. I mean I'm talking like what the the obviously the expectations are that you need to see like the growth rate.
Like where how high does the growth rate have to be relative to where the valuation is relative to a stock that's already up 170 plus percent year-to-date. Like the new orders like what kind of growth do they need to show there? So the superlatives aside, what about the stuff that matters most? think US commercial business is really what I view as it can be an 80 90 100% grower.
And I think when you start just putting numbers around that, I mean this guy this one that was 25-50 million that I believe now could be on trajectory over the next 12 months to to be a billion dollars. So when you when you actually put that together, that means the valuation is one where you go from two three billion of free cash flow what could ultimately be seven eight billion of free cash flow in the next few years.
That's how you going to justify the valuation. I think also with what Karp talks about not just on the government side but on US commercial Well, the commercial commercial's 45% of their sales Yep. at this point. Does that take the onus off of their reliance on government spending? Yeah, I I'd say 45% of revenue 80 and 90% of the valuation.
So when you think about government business even though shutdown and and obviously that could be a little dent I actually think on federal side that's actually going to be a beat relative to all the high AI projects that we're seeing from priority perspective. But what the street focuses on here, it's all about commercial.
It's all about this company essentially disrupting the whole software landscape. And that's essentially what Palantir have done. It's so interesting too like it's it's a it's a retail loved almost a culty angle to this stock. How how do you view that? The fact that retail is so highly engaged with this name?
Look, I think retail has been well ahead of institution. I mean you know I could go back and then you have to about the last few years institutional hated this name, hated 20, despised 50 and you know yelling from the mountaintops at 100. I do think institutional has missed what maybe retail saw in terms of the commercial business in terms of AIP that was really transforming what Palantir was going to be over the coming years.
I do think institutional now warming up more and more to it because the reality is that you cannot just dismiss what they're doing with essentially no direct sales force. And I think that's that just speaks to the the demand that we're You have a thought on that Michael the the this cohort this now powerful probably more powerful than ever cohort in this market that supports stocks like this come hell or high water.
Right. I mean it's obviously it's this almost self-generating enthusiasm for a very select character of stocks. So I I've pointed out it for year for a couple of years now Palantir and Robinhood were the same chart. And that just sort of shows you they're just drawing off the same kind of self-reinforcing mechanism of hey, we're all here loving this stock.
We still love it. We love it more because everybody loves it. And I'm not saying that that's without basis because Robinhood's actual business has been growing extremely rapidly as well as is Palantir. But you know if Dan if you're right about eight billion in free cash flow years down the road, it's a 500 billion-dollar market cap right now.
That's a 1.6% free cash flow yield. That's Microsoft today when it's over investing in CapEx on this year's numbers. So I mean that's that just gives you a sense of how much credit has been given to Palantir in advance given the trajectory. Look how much I mean you're giving them a ton of credit. You're talking about a trillion-dollar market cap.
Cuz cuz look my view is that you're going to have three trillion that's going to spend be spent in the AI revolution. I mean that's software use cases 30-40% of that is going to ultimately be software. But now how much is Palantir get versus Snowflake versus salesforce.com versus Oracle? But again it's pieces to the puzzle.
If you look not just on the hyperscalers but Palantir they're a core piece on the AI use case. And I just think what Karp's doing is unlike anything we've ever seen in software.
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