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첫 줄: 멍거는 현 통화팽창 상황을 역사상 가장 위험한 버블로 보며 장기 인플레이션 위험을 경고하지만, 구체적 단기 가격 예측은 없음. [거시 경고] 멍거는 정부가 대규모로 화폐를 찍는 것은 미지의 영역이라 보고, 과도한 통화 발행이 결국 큰 문제를 일으킨다고 주장. 1970년대 볼커의 금리 인상과 같은 과거 사례를 언급하며, 오늘날 정치인들은 볼커식 경기침체를 용인하지 않을 것이라 봄. 현재 문제는 볼커 시기보다 해결이 어려울 수 있다고 평가. [정치·사회 리스크] 플라톤의 논리를 빌려 포퓰리즘과 선동이 보편 참정권 민주주의를 불안정하게 만들 수 있다고 언급. 일본 사례처럼 완만할지, 훨씬 나쁠지는 불분명하다고 봄. [통화·이자 구조] 무이자 계좌로 이자 부담 채무를 상환하는 식의 통화 확대는 정치권에 매력적이지만, 그 사용이 의도를 넘어 확대될 위험이 있다고 경고. [투자 관점] 단기 격차(러셀 vs S&P)는 중요하지 않으며, 장기적으로 주식·부동산 투자는 고통과 이득이 함께 온다고 봄. 현금 보유 후 기회 대기 전략에 대해 멍거는 유리한 전망을 기다려 저축한 적이 없다며 반대 입장. 버크셔는 현금이 많지만 적정 가격의 매수 대상을 찾지 못해 보유 중이라고 설명. [패시브 투자·주식 밸류에이션] 패시브 인덱스 펀드(블랙록·뱅가드)로의 의결권 집중이 큰 영향을 줄 것이며, 멍거는 그 결과에 나쁜 느낌을 가짐. 로봇·자동화로 인한 노동 조정 문제도 언급. [인플레이션·역사 비교] 독일 초인플레이션과 히틀러 등장, 로마 공화정 말기 인플레이션을 예로 들어 장기 통화 팽창의 파괴력을 강조. 멍거는 다음 세기 투자자에게 현금 보유를 최소화하라는 취지의 조언을 함(통화가치 하락 가정). [마무리] 분산투자와 자기 역량 점검, 보수적 목표 설정을 강조. 영상 자체는 구체적 자산 가격 방향 예측을 거의 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
foreign event Charlie Munger predicts that un-upcoming economic crisis is bound to happen but this one is more dangerous than any other this is investing path and for today's video we'll be talking about Charlie munger's thoughts about this inflationary bubble that we're about to experience soon but before we move along please make sure to give this video a thumbs up and if you'd like to see more of our future content about financing and personal investment then don't forget to click the Subscribe and Bell button to stay updated now we would make you wait for too long so let's get into it at first Charlie Munger mentioned that we're in quite a bubble he elaborated it by saying that when modern governments manufacture money on a vast scale we enter unknown territory we've never done anything like what we're doing today and we know from other nations that printing too much money eventually causes terrible trouble we're closer to a terrible trouble than ever before but it may still be far off surely Monger hopes it does he mentioned that after the 1970s Volker hiked the primary to 20 and the government was paying 15 on government bonds causing a prolonged painful recession Walker's ability to act without political interference was remarkable but we think it was for the best in 2020.
we don't think today's politicians would be as sympathetic to a new Walker bringing on a recession thus Charlie Munger anticipates that the new obstacles will be distinct from the old ones a volker-style recession would have been ideal our problems may be harder to solve than valkyrus according to Plato this is how Greek series State democracy worked demagogues and their followers can easily destabilize a democracy founded on universal suffrage and complex laws Plato's idea wasn't crazy as Sterling Munger thought so it's unclear if our problems will be like Japan's or much worse the fact that we have no idea how things will end out adds an exciting element to our existence we are probably aware we are courting Calamity or unusual worries were unfounded Japan has remained a Civilized Nation despite unfathomable money printing consider how alluring that might be you've paid off interest bearing bills with interest-free accounts imagine how appealing that would be to lawmakers the removal of interest payments and a growth in the money supply may sound like a dream come true but when something is so enticing its use is likely to increase Beyond its intended purpose Charlie munger's way of life didn't anticipate minor short-term disparities between the Russell and standard poor synthesis now we should only worry if it's a wise investment and if we prefer to swim against the current investing in equities or real estate over long term will always involve Pain and Gain in the long run treat those two imposters the same as Kipling put it you're going to have to adjust to both day and night how much does that annoy you no it can be daytime or nighttime or any one time their souls can vary widely from booming success to catastrophic failure Ensure early Monger things you should give it your all and keep going as long as you can get away with it now the question lies on what impact does passive investing head on stock valuations Charlie Munger says that it's definitely going to be huge this is another impending event shareholders and Index Fund investors have emerged as new emperors perhaps we can convert BlackRock CEO Lara Fink and the Vanguard group this rapid massive shift in voting power to passive index funds will help far-reaching effects and while Charlie Monger says that he can say for sure what those effects will be he has quite of a bad feeling about them you wouldn't believe with a modern Factory looks like when it's packed for the guilds with robots and it's coming more and more and more and it's coming to China for that matter and so we think it does create adjustment problems your in the bind if you get unionized job and then a robot takes your position if your company is anything like Kodak and a new invention comes along that makes your product irrelevant you have a problem and the only way to fix it is to go out of business some people are in front of that answer simply giving a guy a non-interest bearing checking account in place of the one you used to have to pay interest to each month would solve all your problems and be very carried something we have a serious problem and the Federal Reserve and politician's go-to remedy for it is to print more money to alleviate the short-term pain without considering the long-term consequences it is well known that the emergence of Hitler was aided by the wema Republic's Reckless money production which led to the country's economic collapse we don't want our legislators to take the path of at least resistance since after all it didn't damage us before now that we know that we can double it and then double it again and so on forever we're all aware of what occurs on that endless cycle of multiplication if enough people act in this way the government will change dramatically unless there's discipline in the process you're playing with fires someplace but Charlie Munger says that doesn't see Japan as being in any great Peril having given the only huge quantity of this and gotten away with it to be honest he doesn't think we'll be able to solve our problems as well as zip and as meanwhile as for Charlie Munger was questioned about the situation of moving into cash now and waiting for greater opportunities to deploy the capital over the following 12 months if taxes were not an issue and if he thinks it's a good plan he answered it by saying that he never saved money in anticipation of favorable prospects for the time being I don't plan on changing his mind on the greatest option he found furthermore The Daily Journal depleted its Financial Resources now Berkshire has a lot of cash on hand but it isn't sitting on it since Buffett believes that company can time the market well nothing appeals to Buffett enough for him to make a purchase as you can see Charlie Munger cannot offer a solution to your problem and instead He suggests that we must cope with the methods he has given now another question arises on why isn't Berkshire acquiring any new companies given the valuation and Market prop expected to begin in early 20.
well the team deserves credit for investing in apple Harris a few years ago they have clearly paid up to put it simply Charlie Munger answers this by saying that they can't find anything else to buy at a price they're ready to pay which is why they're making this purchase some people are driving up the price by bidding and many of the buyers don't intend to keep them a large portion of private Equity Acquisitions are motivated by the hope of generating further management fees even though it's much simpler to make a purchase when you have access to someone else's cash they're not really borrowing anyone's money rather they're just spending what we they consider to be their own he's always held the view that no amount of money can buy happiness and that even a great store like Costco would eventually reach a prize at which you'd say that's too high however he would argue that he would purchase Costco at the current price if we were investing money for a sovereign wealth fund or a pension fund with 30 40 or a 50-year Time Horizon as an after thought the fact that Berkshire has Surplus ones that they are are not now investing in is not tragic Australian Monger describes it when we have more money we appear more responsible and we actually are more responsible investors who are concerned about the company's feature because it appears complex and challenging pose a threat to everyone fretting over the economy the Republic's future and similar issues relax we mistake inflation extremely seriously one may make the case that this is the end of a democracy a major cause of democracy's demise and Latin America is rampant inflation it's a major risk once the people figure out they can vote themselves paychecks there is a significant risk of long-term destruction to your Society if we push things too far consider the Roman Republic which persisted long after the transition to an absolute monarchy in the form of the Roman Empire they kept the money in constant inflation for hundreds of years which led to the fall of the entire Roman Empire therefore it Moses the greatest Potential Threat to humanity in the long run perhaps even more so than the nuclear war as a result of the higher risk of loss Charlie Munger believes that the only appropriate course of action for an investor over the next century is to consume as little of it as possible since we expect the value of the currency to drop to zero way more inflation which Wipe Out the savings of the middle class in Germany was followed by the Great Depression like a knockout blow enter Hitler a crazy demagogue who received 40 of the vote and pretty soon we had a dictator who was determined to start World War one so the past is unpleasant and the Germany that Hitler conquered was a highly developed and civilized country in other words we've proven that in a contemporary democracy in the age of Keynes you're going to have a huge government reaction if you allow your nation to decline to the point where you get a Hitler this outpouring of support Beyond anything the United States had seen before they just poured money at the problem they had a good reason to worry about the outcome and be generous with their spending but they may have gone a bit too far it's hard for the restaurants to find workers because they got so much money so rapidly but he also added that he can't blame them when time is of the essence it's challenging to make sound judgments you can only have faith in the technical prowess of our culture if you look back 100 years to the year 2022 the previous Century also saw a significant increase in the rate of modernization while the preceding thousands of years were largely unremarkable no printing press no air conditioning no modern medical and other similar things meant that life was rough and short and limited things from my list of the genuine human needs don't seem likely to materialize think about the significance of obtaining let's pretend that first you acquired this steam engine the steam sheep the railroad some agrarian and plumbing advancement that's what the century that ended in 1922 brought you the United States is a vastly different environment from what happened there where obesity is the primary issue facing the poor they were on the verge of is starvation in the past but now with Rising Prosperity greater personal autonomy diminishing racial disparities and other signs of modern progress they are thriving you cheaper or less content with the current state of affairs than they were when times were much tougher the world is not driven by greedy it's driven by Envy and the reality that everybody's five times better off than they used to be they don't appreciate it and all they can think about is how unfair it is that someone else is more than they do for this reason God appeared to Moses and commanded him not to covet his neighbor's wife or even his donkey even ancient Jews struggled with feelings of Envy it's just in our DNA surely Monger finds it is strange for someone his age because he'll live through the great depression's unimaginable poverty After All Is wealth he felt safer trolling the streets of Omaha at night than he does in his own neighborhood in Los Angeles so and there's nothing he can do about it even though his life improved by roughly 600 many people are still quite unhappy and feel highly exploited this is because there will always be someone else who has more think of the pretentious expenditures of the reach who in the hell needs a Rolex watch so you can get mocked for it you know I mean yet everybody wants to have a pretentious expenditure and that helps Drive demand in our modern capitalist Society my advice to young people is don't go there the hell with a pretentious expenditure I don't think there's much happiness in it but it does Drive the civilization we actually have it drives a dissatisfaction and finally what will happen next and in addition to investing in quality stocks what other suggestions does Charlie Munger has for us private investors looking to protect themselves from the potentially disastrous effects of inflation Charlie Munger says that you are unlucky if you've got four solid assets perfect diversification is portrayed as professional investing by Finance instructors and the media very few people have enough widths to get 20 decent Investments and if you were attempting to do better than average you were lucky if you have four things to buy it will be a lot more challenging for the group than it was to finish college at the time that they may become wealthy maintain their wealth and amass even more well they'll have it much Tougher Than My Generation had consider how much it would cost you to buy a property in a good Los Angeles neighborhood income taxes will likely go hiked as a result and so on we all find the investment World challenging enough as it is owning a diversified portfolio of Common Stocks that was slightly updated by adding the new ones that came in like the apples and the alphabets and so on was ideal at that time and would say the people got maybe 10 or 11 if you did that very intelligently before inflation and maybe nine percent after inflation which was a marvelous return we don't think the future will give the person graduating from college this year nearly that easy in an investing opportunity we think it's going to be a lot harder no other generation in the history of the planet ever earned returns like that some people have their skills to put money into things that are difficult to evaluate While others would be wise to set more reasonable goals for the types of issues they take on so somewhat perplexing we would say welcome to adult life but we think you need to figure out your degree of skill or the level of skill your advisor has and that should enter the equation and that concludes our video for today we thank you so much for watching and we hope you learned a thing or two if you have any thoughts or questions in mind then feel free to share them in the comment section below and let's have a discussion about it we are glad that you took the time to watch this video so please make sure to give this one a thumbs up and click the Subscribe and future uploads once again this is investing path thanks again for watching and we'll see you on our next video
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