저자: MattMalley · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거의 고평가 경고에 동조하며 향후 시장 조정(큰 폭 하락 가능)을 예상하고, 개별 종목 선별 장세와 사전 계획 수립을 강조함. 주제1 - 시장 밸류에이션: 멍거는 주식 밸류에이션이 닷컴 버블 때보다 더 미쳤다고 언급. 매트는 전체 시장이 닷컴 때만큼 나쁘지는 않지만 일부 영역은 거품 수준이라고 평가. 주제2 - 근거 사례: 아비스(Avis) 주가가 몇 주 전 이틀 만에 두 배 올랐다는 사례를 들어, 팬데믹을 해결하거나 기술 혁신을 가져오지 않는 기업에서도 과도한 거품이 보인다고 지적. 주제3 - 연준 정책: 연준이 긴급 수준의 부양을 너무 오래 유지했고, 테이퍼링을 넘어 더 빠른 긴축을 논의하는 상황. 스테로이드를 맞은 역도선수에 비유하며 인위적으로 밀어올린 주가는 유동성 축소 시 되돌아올 것이라고 주장. 주제4 - 시장 전망: 내년에 상당한 조정(significant correction)이 올 가능성이 크다고 예상. 다만 정상적이고 건강한 과정이라고 설명. 앞으로는 개별 종목 선별이 중요한 장세(stock picker's market)가 될 것이라고 전망. 주제5 - 투자 전략: 연준과 싸우지 말 것(don't fight the Fed). 하락 전 사전 계획을 세워두고 조정 시 패닉 매도하지 않으면 저점에서 매수하는 쪽이 된다고 조언. 주제6 - 베티 스티븐슨 견해: 팬데믹 중 저축은 대부분 장기 목적이므로 주식 시장 유입이 과도한 변동성을 낳을 것으로 보지 않음. 우려되는 변동성은 코로나 변이 등에서 오는 소비 위축이라고 봄. 주제7 - 고용 지표: 11월 고용에서 전문·비즈니스 서비스가 약 9만 개 증가했으나 레저·접객업은 약 2.3만 개만 회복. 서비스 부문 회복 부진이 핵심 우려이며, 재화 생산 부문과 소매 판매는 예상보다 강했음. 코로나 확진율이 높아 소비 불안이 지속된다고 분석. 주제8 - 종목 언급: 개별 종목 직접 방향 예측은 없고, 아비스만 과열 사례로 언급.
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welcome back to yahoo finance live on this jobs report friday betsy stevenson and matt meley are still hanging out with us matt i'll come back to you uh here because you are a traitor uh on this panel charlie munger's comments overnight catching a lot of people's attention him essentially saying that stock valuations are crazy do you think they're crazy in the context context over the next 12 months we're going to have a very different situation at the federal reserve yeah i think so i mean the this is he says they're they're crazier than they were but even in the dot-com bubble i think that's a little hard too by some measurements there are and i suppose there are some uh pockets in the marketplace that are you know as bad as they were back then but i don't think the overall market is quite as bad however uh we do have you know we've seen what's happening i mean look what happened to avis remember avis a couple of weeks ago the stock doubled in in in in two two days i mean avis is not coming up with it with a with a new thing to help you know this you know it's that's gonna cure uh the pandemic they're not coming up with a new uh uh technological advance it's gonna change everything and yet it just showed that how much ridiculous amount of uh of froth that there are in some areas of the marketplace and the reason for that is because we we had long after we had gone past the emergency the fed was still providing emergency level uh stimulus and that took the market way too far above it it's it's uh underlying valuation and therefore i do think it has to come back in and with the fed talking not just talking about tapering but tapering more quickly uh i i compare it to a somebody who is a you know a weightlifter who's on steroids uh yeah they you don't have to go all the way to from from taking a lot of steroids to zero steroids to get weaker you're you're gonna get weaker there's gonna be less stimulus in the economy uh and just like the weight lifter who's artificially pushed higher the stock market was artificially pushed higher and it needs to come back in so that doesn't mean again it's not the end of the world these things are normal and they're healthy but it is going to be a stock pickers market and the overall market people are going to have to be a lot more careful betsy um i want to bring you back into this and obviously you're an economist you're not necessarily watching the market as closely as matt but i do wonder about market implications as volatility ticks up from this perspective all the stimulus that matt was just talking about a lot of it went into people's pockets and sure a lot of people spent it on rent and food but a lot of people spent it in the market as well and so i wonder with that uptick in stock market participation do there then become sort of economic implications for regular americans who are invested if we see an increase in volatility um so i i just say you know i people did save a lot of the money and one of the places they might be saving their money is the stock market i'm not sure why we're going to necessarily see a lot of extra volatility because i think a lot of the people who put their extra money in the stock market are people who are putting it in there for the long haul you know we what we saw is people built up their savings they're building up their savings for their retirement they're building up their receiving their savings in case something sort of you know really bad happens so i think the volatility we need to be worried about is the volatility coming from covid the new variant and the potential for there to be a lot of turmoil in what americans are willing to spend um but i don't think we need to worry that too many people are saving too much and they're putting their money in the stock market uh betsy what did you see in the composition of where the job gains were in november that kind of informs you about the status of this recovery because what was interesting to me is that professional and business services gained about 90 000 jobs in november but that leisure and hospitality space where i think the shortfall is still what something close to 1.4 1.5 million compared to pre-pandemic levels only gained back about 23 000 so the shift from kind of maybe lower wage to higher wage job returns might be changing right now or is that kind of too soon to say i think the whole thing that is concerning right now is that we are not seeing the recovery in the service sector broadly whether we're talking about you know higher wage or lower wage that we need to see the good sector has more than recovered we are there's more jobs in the goods producing sector there's more sales in the goods producing sector than anybody would have predicted pre-pandemic would be at today so we ha everybody wants a couch everybody seems to want a car um and so you know we did see 60 000 jobs added in the goods producing sector to put that in perspective we still in right before the pandemic started hadn't made up all the jobs lost in the goods producing sector from the 2008 recession that's usually really slow to recover that's not what's happened what's been slow to recover is the service sector which got completely hammered by coven and it's continuing to get hammered by covid and we're seeing that we haven't made up jobs in education and health services it's not just leisure and hospitality so across the board i'd like to see faster growth in the service sector people being able to come back to their jobs in doctor's offices in child care services in nursing homes so those are real problems if you take a look at this report though one of the things that really struck me is we didn't see the kind of growth in retail sales that we normally would see in a november because people don't seem to be going back to the mall to do their shopping and that is where we would see you know normally the stores are flooded with people and everybody's trying to hire so that people can get out there and physically do their shopping i think there's less of that happening right now and again that all comes back to uh kovid is our case rates remain high people remain nervous and worried matt final war two what's your home run trade off of this jobs report oh gosh uh home run trade i just honestly i don't want one home one trade what i would just say is that i think it's important for for uh people to have a plan put in place in advance for in case uh i'm right and then we do get uh a more serious headwinds because of what the fed is doing don't fight the fed we will see i think a a significant correction next year that's okay normal healthy have a plan set up in advance don't react to it if you have that plan set up in advance you will not be the one who's selling at the bottom you'll be the one buying at the bottom uh and keeping your head while others around you are losing their so and if it doesn't work out having that plan uh it's just good to have it and you just don't have to use it that's fine but have it in place well that is a home run plan indeed matt malley managing director and equity strategist at miller tayback good to see you and betsy stevenson professor of public policy and economics at the ford school always good to see you as well
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