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dan so you say you think Apple marches to 300 a share here to be about 10 percent higher maybe even 350 on 5g iPhone but what's the downside what's the worst case scenario that can keep that from happening look I think worst case scenario you just got taken off the table in terms of the tariffs what we saw that was really the dark cloud over Apple in terms of China and I think right now you go through with the supercycle I think the only risk that we potentially see is Chinese demand but we just did our China checks that continues to be above expectation so right now I think it's a green light I view this is a stock that will have a 3 in front of it going to the next year and this took away the dark cloud what we saw this morning that's the focus for tech investors Apple and Sammy's going higher dan what do you say where is the upside is it in iPhone and can upside in wearables and services which really don't contribute that much to profits and revenue still help sentiment yeah look I think it's right now the setup is iPhone Rock of Gibralter I continue to think hundred eighty-five hundred ninety million units and the supercycle going into next year but if you I look at air pods and that's gonna be four or five percent of revenue we're predicting 85 to 90 million units next year with services the rereading is starting and continuing to happen some of the parts I view it that that services business is worth 600 billions Jean it seems to me that you didn't think that these tariffs were ever actually going to impact Apple because of perhaps the relationship between the President and Tim Cook but shares right here are higher for Apple albeit just slightly about four tenths of a percent where do you think they go from here so I'm more optimistic than dan dan by the way is more optimistic than most of the sell side I think that and I want to pick up I love Dan's work want to pick up on the concept of supercycle which undoubtedly will be one of the themes that we're going to hear going into 5g as a quick aside the first year of 5g for the iPhone will be a disappointment for invest I think that ultimately it's gonna this is a massive opportunity for Apple a huge play on 5g but it's going to take time for the the networks to roll out coverage but I want to go back to the phrase supercycle that to me is really the core of how most investors think still think largely about the Apple story is this you kind of own it going into big cycles and I think that is in part what is moving the stock higher but I think where I think this can go I think that this ultimately can be a 350 or 400 dollar stock and I base that on a belief that this is we're going to gravitate over the next two years to a view that this is more of a consumer tech staples company growing much faster than companies like coca-cola and Procter gamblin should deserve a multiple closer to 25 or 30 times and I understand that is a departure from this supercycle view over the last decade in in covering Apple but I think ultimately wearables services this whole kind of symphony of products working together is going to influence investors to rate this higher overtime gene if the 5g iPhone super cycle is a disappointment arguably the 5g rollout in the u.s.
is going to be a disappointment right I mean that's that's the main device that a lot of people are expecting you're going to sell this network is it that you think that Apple's not going to have the software and services ready in 2020 to entice people to buy a phone like that that's a 2021 story I need to be clear because you know the word disappointment is a important word and I chose that wisely ultimately is that there is the stock is going to move higher next year I think that this is going to be one of the best performers if not the top tech performer next year as well so I just want to be clear about that I think the hype around 5g is gonna grow I also want to answer your question is that this is not an Apple related problem the disappointment is I think largely on the shoulders of the carriers who have talked I think a lot about the 75% coverage by the end of the next year I think that that is optimistic at the best-case and so as I kind of fast forward there'll be five for iPhones next year I think the stock continues to move higher but investors should have a sober view about how that first year this would be can 20:21 largely that first year of 5g sales the good news is it's going to happen we will get an incredible lift in iphone I reluctant to use the phrase supercycle but we will get a massive lift over the next few years it's just investors need to be patient in that first year because the coverage won't be there dad is that your view or how how wedded are you to the idea of the first 5g iPhone in fact having a supercycle yeah and jeana's always brings up great points I think it just comes down to the math doesn't lie 900 million iPhones worldwide 350 to 400 million of those are gonna be in upgrade cycle over the next 12 to 18 months you kind of do the math on that and just at a trade on services and air pods that's how I think there's a stock that continues to move higher do you get disappointed on a sort of mix of 5g and 4G into next year I think it's possible but ultimately our China checks show the initial reads in terms of units north of 200 million that's the line thus and if that holds true this is a stock that goes much higher from here especially with the gut-punched 160 billion now off the table that's the key you
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