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Are we headed for a recession? Are we in a recession? You know, most CEOs I talked to would say we are probably in a recession right now. Right now? Right now. Look, I just spoke to the president about this and he believes that China wants to make a deal with the United States. He believes China has to make a deal with the United States.
That's why there will be 104% tariffs going into effect on China tonight at midnight. It is the proverbial burden in a coal mine canary in the coal mine and and I was told that the canary is sick. Markets are stretched to the downside because we lost you know, almost 13 percentage points in two trading days.
Um, as you know, it's almost like the the stock market and the economy was delivered a heart attack from the terms of those tariffs. I do think we're kind of stuck in the near term, but yeah, I think markets overreacted to the downside and yesterday, it does look like the messaging has switched. You know, the president has moved to letting people know they're negotiating and I think that's a return or a quiet return of the Trump put because I don't think they want markets to continue to have this heart attack.
Today, we have BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Tom Lee giving their market prediction for the coming weeks and what impact this will have on Bitcoin and crypto in 2025. Historically tracking the price in the year following the Bitcoin halving and on the heels of multiple all-time highs, they believe this year will be the beginning of a massive $400 trillion inflow of capital into Bitcoin.
The current price for Bitcoin sits just under $76,000, down almost 10% in the past week. They discuss the extreme volatility we've seen recently and in the coming months will witness one of the biggest price rises so far since the creation of the dominant cryptocurrency. The story will become even bigger in 2025 because of the Bitcoin ETFs.
With thousands of institutional investors across the United States now buying Bitcoin, the demand for the leading digital asset has increased exponentially. This has caused a hyper never-before-seen supply-demand imbalance for Bitcoin. Tom Lee and Larry Fink predict there's a storm coming and the market is preparing for a massive shift in 2025.
When you see a 20% market decline in 3 days, obviously it has significant impacts and the ripple effects of uh uh uh of the potential of tariffs is going to be long-standing. And so, our job right now is to just be uh we're having more conversations with clients. The um probably the last time we had this many client conversations at BlackRock was right when they we closed our economy in March of uh 2020.
You know, obviously markets are down 20%. So, some stocks are down over 30, 40% from their high water marks of just January But in the long run, um I would I would say in the long run this is more of a buying opportunity than it is selling opportunity. That doesn't mean we can't fall another 20% from here, too.
But I do believe over the long run the vitality of the United States will persist and well, I do believe the dollar will be weakened. I mean, most political theory is or economic theory is tariffs raise the value of a currency. I think it's going to weaken the dollar. And um the one one thing I would say with certain, you know, the economy is weakening as we speak.
And so, the need for the administration to focus on these pro-growth agendas, which was much of what the president um campaigned on, we have to get that going. Whatever it's the tax cut, we need to be um deregulating, we need to be streamlining permitting. Exactly all the things I've been writing about where we need to get the private capital, private markets to start investing in the United States.
We need to you know and I think right now the market's not focusing on all these we forgot about the power of AI, the power of all these different changes. We're focusing on the market but the macro trends of AI, the macro trends of rebuilding our infrastructure, these macro and if the president is successful in in in deregulating, if he's successful in streamlining permitting, then you know we can go back to this view that we have a major growth agenda in front of us.
The president has been focusing on right now areas that in my mind in the short run are very inflationary and destabilizing the economy and that's what we've been talking about. But if we can find ways of rebuilding growth through these agendas and then you know as I said at the beginning these the market declines we're going to look back and say these this might be a good entry level to get back in the market.
Are we um headed for a recession or we in a recession? I you know most CEOs I talk to um would say we are probably in a recession right now. Right now? Right now. Um a couple airline CEOs told me one CEO specifically said, you know the airline industry is a is is like a proverbial bird in a in a coal mine canary in the coal mine and and I was told that the canary is sick.
Uh already. Uh if you look at what's going on in air traffic and how people are changing and how um so many people who we're seeing in various different sectors a real uh downturn. Embracing an unyielding enthusiasm for the Bitcoin realm, Fink and Lee confidently predict that explosive growth is looming on the horizon as BlackRock and many other crypto giants are doing just that.
Lee and Fink reassure that a long expected surge awaits. By the end of 2025 there will be 1.1 billion active crypto wallets. The pace of growth is hard to comprehend and it will be the fastest accumulation of wealth we have ever seen. This is the conclusion of a career's worth of research. And every single chart and piece of research leads to the same conclusion.
Liquidity drives everything and crypto will be the best performing asset of them all. Markets are stretched to the downside because we lost you know, almost 13 percentage points in two trading days. Um, as you know, it's almost like the the stock market and the economy was delivered a heart attack from the terms of those tariffs.
So, I think that there is a bounce underway. Um, Mark Newton, our head of technical strategy, you know, views this as as a technical rally. Uh, I think something that can take us, you know, to recover towards 5500 or something like that. But, I do think that there is that, you know, the challenge is going to be we don't have a fundamental clarity and sort of the all clear enough for us to say that that's going to you know, push us back towards new highs.
So, I I do think we're kind of stuck in the near near term, but yeah, I think markets overreacted to the downside and yesterday, I do it does look like the messaging has switched. You know, the president has moved towards nego- to letting people know they're negotiating and I think that's a return or a quiet return of the Trump put because I don't think they want markets to continue to have of this heart attack.
You know, one of the things, you know, we spent a a lot of time talking to investors between Wednesday, liberation day, and over the weekend and you know, it's clear to us investors feel that not only have or these tariff levels absurd in the sense that it was very difficult for people to to understand the calculation, but it really did break a covenant with capitalism.
You know, the idea that businesses need stable and predictable regulations. Many companies move their supply chains in 2018 uh, because of the need to move away from China. And now they have, you know, potentially trillions of dollars of stranded capital again because of these tariffs. So, I I think that that's the the seismic shock that's very tough for markets and the trust that's been broken.
Um it doesn't mean that we can't see a level of clarity that helps restore that trust and so markets after this waterfall decline, we know one scenario is a V-shaped bounce um that takes us back to the previous levels. But but you know, the reality is it's going to you know, I don't know what that sort of clarity that's required for that is.
So, I I I think that it's it does feel like this will take some time and uh I I you know, one of one very good friend of mine is Tom DeMarco and he says this reminds him of 2011. I I think that that's not a bad way to look at it that it's going to take a little time for markets to regain some trust.
If there was uh conciliatory actions that were sort of friendly to businesses that the market could have a massive massive move. Um you know, I think I think the idea of like an exporter tax credit, these things really can restore confidence because at the end of the day, you know, the entity caught in the middle of this has been companies and the you know, the capital that they've invested, they need to earn a return.
That hurts shareholders, but it also hurts all the employees that work at these businesses. So, I do think that the ripple effects you know, looking back it does make sense why the market had a heart attack. But of course this this also means parts of this is is very fixable, but it it does mean that there is you know, a bit of time involved.
Well, seven countries represent about 70% of that trade deficit. Um you know, outside of China, I think the EU and Japan, Korea, Vietnam, you know, Canada, Mexico, uh I think we're we're heading it looks like we're heading towards something that's acceptable to both sides and really that leaves the US in a a position.
Um you know, I think there's a possibility that we have we don't ever resolve this with China. So, you know, there's going to be an attempt to maybe build the supply chain or isolate China. I think that's acceptable for markets. Tom Lee challenges the conventional economic metrics, asserting that these metrics are often manipulated to paint a specific narrative, like labor statistics and inflation figures.
The ongoing adoption of Bitcoin by governments, institutions, and media signifies a broader recognition of its value. However, Lee asserts this journey is just the beginning. Comparing the initial years to the current widespread interest and investment with a giant spotlight on Bitcoin ETFs. Lee highlights this being a significant development in the financial ecosystem, selectively measured to create desired effects rather than reflecting the true state of the economy.
In this context, Bitcoin emerges as an alternative, detached from the manipulations of the conventional economic sphere. Lee also highlights that established corporations like Apple, Amazon, and Google will use their established relationships acquired over decades to swiftly acquire substantial amounts of Bitcoin through a spot ETF, bypassing the cumbersome processes involved in procuring the actual commodity.
This disparity underscores the transformative power of cryptocurrencies in traditional financial institutions. Michael Saylor underscores the importance of embracing digital currencies as the economic landscape is changing rapidly, and urges investors to leverage Bitcoin's potential to secure a more prosperous financial future.
What do you think about the latest interview with Tom Lee? And how do you think Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months will impact the crypto market and the world of investing?
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