This bull run still has further to go, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

요약 보기

시장은 9월 첫 거래일 하락했으나 강세장은 유효하다고 주장. 주가매출비율(P/S) 고점 보도는 이익 기준으로 보면 과장이며, 상위 7개 빅테크(MAG7)를 제외하면 시장은 장기 중간값 수준. 이익 수정치는 여전히 상향. 관세의 대법원 판단과 2분기 GDP 전망 편차(1.5~3.5%)가 주요 불확실성. 전반적으로 긍정적이나 변수 발생 시 입장 변경 가능.

다듬은 글

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01. Joining us right now is Jeremy Seagull. He's chief economist at Wisdom Tree and professor a Jeremy, we're we're down on this first trading day of September probably because of questions about the tariffs, but I don't know, we're we're also at relatively high levels. How are you feeling about things right now?

02. Yeah. And probably because of September, right, being being the historically really the worst worst month of the of the year. Uh listen, you know, certainly we could have a pullback. I mean, uh I still think the the bull trends are intact. Uh I know you guys mentioned the Wall Street Journal article this morning about all-time highs.

03. So, I I I took it out and read it and it said, "Oh, yeah, it's all-time highs relative to sales." Well, I thought we, you know, value stocks on earnings, not sales, and we're way, you know, below any all-time high in terms of earnings. Not that it's not an expensive market, but once you take out, and even that article admitted once you take out the MAG 7, you know, we're only, you know, slightly above a longer term medium.

04. So, I I still think this bull run has a place to go. Revisions are are still upward. I mean, there's a lot of things that can derail it. I mean, uh you know, this the tariff development is very interesting cuz I I I think it's going to go to the Supreme Court. I think the Supreme Court is going to throw it back to Congress and say, you know, you know, to have the Republican Congress say, "Okay, and then it it'll go through." And that's that's going to be very interesting politics I think in the the second half of uh this year.

05. It's just the Senate that would have to sign off, you know, interesting sort of development. Yeah. I I mean he has control, the party has control of the Senate, of the Congress. Um you know, we'll see if they would choose to fight him on that or whether they say, "Okay, we go along with what we've seen to this point." But I want to go back to what you just said, this idea um that we're at the highest level if you divide by sales.

06. I mean, we we mock people when they look at sales. We say that's not the real number. You're right. If we're looking at earnings, that seems like the much more important number to bear out. in in the biggest companies you're talking about the the mag seven are are the richest in terms of of price to sales probably too because of all the potential um

07. and be and it's because the margins of those companies are so high margins of digital tech companies have always been the highest so if they're predominant you're you're going to get a result such as this and I don't you know I don't I think that's built into tech tech has very very high margins because of the way accounting goes and the way the you know globalization and how you can replicate at virtually no cost.

08. All you need is those customers to come. So it's a very different sort of a thing than you know looking back at a steel company or an auto company and you know to put them all together I think gives a misleading look at the market. So you're feeling pretty good about things even though you look at the calendar and see it's September.

09. Yeah. I I mean I I you know I I you know again I wouldn't be surprised in shortrun forecasting is hard but uh you know the upward revision of earnings you know after it took the hit in April and we still have to see I mean I you know you know there's a big dispersion I think one of the biggest dispersions I've seen in GDP for this quarter.

10. I mean it's true that the you know the Atlanta Fed is looking like three and a half which sort of shocked me. I think Goldman's still looking at one and a half. JP Morgan sort of in the middle at 2 and a half and I've never seen such a dispersion. We're more than twothirds of the way through the quarter, you know, outside of recession periods, which of course are are very different.

11. So, I think there's still a lot of there's still a lot of questions. Not all those price increases are yet recorded. What is going to happen in the second half of the year? I think that's really, you know, the biggest question. And that of course is still linked with the the tariff uh question of uh the legality and and and how it's going to to to flow through to the consumer.

12. So obviously a lot of questions, but you're still feeling pretty good and um I think we'll take it at that point. I mean I'm still I'm still positive on the market um uh at this time. Uh, of course any sort of developments could come that could change that, but what I see is still constructive, very constructive.