BILLIONAIRE RAY DALIO THE ON NEXT RECESSION, ECONOMY, INVESTING, EUROPEAN SHORT

요약 보기

레이 달리오 인터뷰 내용을 정리한 영상으로, 성공 투자를 위해 역발상과 실패 학습이 중요하며 미국 경기침체 가능성이 높다는 것이 핵심이다. [투자 원칙] 달리오는 시장 가격이 합의(컨센서스)를 반영하므로 성공하려면 때로 역발상으로 시장에 반대 베팅해야 한다고 주장한다. 대담한 목표를 세우면 실패도 많아지며, 실패 원인을 진단하고 원칙으로 기록해 개선하는 순환이 중요하다고 강조한다. 독립적 사고를 가진 사람들의 관점을 구하고, 확신을 갖는 것이 투자에서 돈을 잃는 가장 빠른 길이라고 경고한다. [달리오의 과거 사례] 1982년 경기 붕괴에 베팅해 공매도 포지션을 잡았으나 8월이 시장 바닥이었고, 회사 인력을 해고해 혼자만 남는 등 큰 실패를 겪었다. 이후 그는 "내가 어디서 틀렸는가"를 항상 점검하는 습관을 갖게 됐다. [투자 심리 조언] 두려울 때 팔지 말고 두렵지 않을 때 파는 것이 아니라, 반대로 두려울 때 사고 두렵지 않을 때 팔아야 한다는 조언을 제시한다. [시장·경기 전망] 경기 사이클의 후반부에 있으며, 시장은 이를 아직 충분히 인식하지 못했다고 본다. 대기 중인 현금이 많고 기업들은 자사주 매입으로 주가를 떠받치고 있어 시장이 여전히 높다는 해석이다. 현재는 거품 이전 단계이지만 완화 정책과 인플레이션에 따라 거품으로 이어질 수 있고, 이후 붕괴가 올 수 있다고 본다. 2020년까지 미국 경기침체 확률을 60~70%로 제시했다. [리스크·조건] 언론 보도는 오해를 낳을 수 있으며, 달리오의 실제 포지션(이탈리아 은행 공매도 등)은 헤지 구조로 해석해야 하므로 단정할 수 없다는 점을 언급한다. [출연자 전망] 달리오: 2020년까지 미국 경기침체 확률 60~70%, 침체 가능성이 높아 대비가 필요하다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. good day fellow investors I recently listened to a radio Harvard Kennedy School interview longer than an hour so I'm going to keep it short here and tell you exactly what data was saying about successful investing the markets and the economy so let's meet Lee start the first message Dale your head for Harvard students is that the consensus is built in the price of everything so if you want to be a successful investor not just an average investor you have to often be a contrarian and bet against the market because the market is the consensus and it gives you the exact price so you have to find ways to see what others don't see however those ways imply a lot of failures which means that if you are an audacious investor you have audacious goals you want to beat the market but this leads to failure and the only way to be a successful investor is okay why did I fail I learned my principles from write those principles down if you can learn from other people even better improve and then have even more audacious goals so this is the circle of becoming a successful investor so if you want to be a successful investor you have to constantly question what you are doing and find ways to improve because the world is in constantly improving what worked yesterday might not work tomorrow and also in life DeLeo has the simple message simple circle goals problems diagnosis design and doing in order to constantly improve what is very interesting is his story and daihlia in 1982 was betting on an economic collapse so he was short his firm was short and August 1982 was really the bottom of the stock market and he was short he had to fire people he was down to only him in his investment firm which later became the biggest hedge fund in the world but he also failed and that failure prompted him to always look ok where am I wrong when I have an idea or something like that so a good exercise to be a successful investor is to start look at your okay where am I wrong and ask yourself find other people other independent thinkers that can give you the perspective okay I could be right but I could also be wrong I see a lot of comments here on my channel there are people who are convinced about something and being convinced about something in investing is the fastest way to lose money never be convinced always look okay this could happen this could happen how am i positioned in relation to the probabilities of those things happening this has led him to constantly seek for independent thinkers with audacious goals that built onto his model of management in bridgewater meritocracy on based on principles success failures tests learnings that leads to happy employees and happy clients what I would take out of de leus views is that whatever investment we have we have to think about what might be wrong than there and think see what other independent thinkers think about it Dehlia also gives a simple piece of advice to all investors that are a little bit afraid from the recent turmoil so he says when you are scared you shouldn't sell when you are not scared you should sell and do the opposite when buying so you should buy when you're scared and sell when you are not scared think about that if people would do that during those their lives there would be excellent investors as for the economy he says that we are in the late part of the cycle the market hasn't yet recognized that because there are huge piles of cash on the sidelines the just wait the deep there is I heard by the deep and million times everywhere in the last month so everybody rushed in the market and that's why the market is let's say still high very high in my opinion also companies have a lot of cash that rushing to do buybacks to protect their stock prices because everything that they have been doing according to me in the last five year eight years has been pushing up their stock price that for most of companies of course that's something we will discuss in another video on the short position value has been pretty clear that you shouldn't or we shouldn't read into anything that the media says about it because it is misleading this means that oh one he could be short Italy and all those companies in Europe that's possible but it's very likely that that's a long short position so he has a very long position and he offsets it with a short position so he's balancing his risks out as a hedge fund so we shouldn't look it at that okay he's short Italy no he's short that Italian bank but he might be short he might be long something else which is very very possible in the hedge world hedge fund world and you cannot know what Daley is doing if you are not the head of Bridgewater so it's very interesting we have to look ok but it could be this it could be that always as Lela says look at various opinions and I own the economy very simple pre bubble stage which could turn into a bubble if there is more easing and inflation and whatever tax bill is saying and doing but the pre bubble will soon turn into a bubble and then we will see a bust and Daniel says that and in up to 2020 which 2020 there is a 70% 60 70 % chance of a u.s.

02. recession that's it so he finally gave us the number 60 70 % chance of a use as recession remember that I think it's a lot can be discussed we will discuss that in another video but the key is that recession is very very likely soon and you have to be prepared thank you for watching looking forward to a comments what is your independent thought see you in the next video