저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라에 대해 유럽·중국 실적 호조를 근거로 강세 입장을 유지하며 목표가를 상향했다. 최근 테슬라 주가 상승의 원인은 시장 심리나 멀티플 변화보다 수익성 개선이 핵심이라고 진단했다. 유럽이 특히 좋았고 중국 기가팩토리3도 기대를 웃돈다고 평가했다. 단기적으로 4분기 인도량이 예상보다 8~10만 대 더 나올 가능성을 언급하며 공매도 세력이 버티기 어렵다고 봤다. 애플은 올해 80% 상승했음에도 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 주장했다. 아이폰11의 성공과 5G 슈퍼사이클을 근거로 제시했다. 규제 리스크에 대해서는 기업 비즈니스 모델을 바꾸기보다 벌금 수준에 그칠 것으로 보고, 규제 발 하락은 매수 기회라고 했다. 페이스북은 사용자 증가와 수익화를 근거로 계속 상승할 것이라고 전망했다. 슬랙은 마이크로소프트 팀즈와의 경쟁으로 하락 가능성이 크다며 하락 의견을 냈다.
다듬은 글
so what do you make of this call today here if you're still neutral you feel like what you've learned leads you one way or the other positive or negative yeah I think in this book we've talked about oh I think although we were wrong the last six months be more no negative or cautious on test so what I've seen coming out of Europe specifically also out of China makes us more bullish that's why we raise the price target still right now it's a bit wait-and-see to see what we see in one Q into Q but nonetheless in terms of where it's tipping right now it's bullish in terms of specifically Europe and China we've been on a tad the second half of the year particularly the final third of the year what drove that what was it change in actual estimates from analysts like yourself or is it just a pure sentiment shift and a multiple shift it was the p-word profitability I mean that that was the key if you really think about demand definitely rebounded us you know I think pretty impressive but it was really Europe Europe was the star of the show but it was profitability and if you really think about that took the Domesday off the scenario in terms of that and now you go into 2020 if they could stay profitable the valuation changes for Tesla especially now China's front-and-center so that's um that's fundamentals that you're talking about what about short covering in a name like Tesla any of that responsible who them in the moves we've seen beyond besides today yeah I think especially over the last four to six weeks there's definitely been a massive short cover because I could tell you talking a lot of the shorts you look at what I believe is gonna be a q4 where they probably beat by 8 to 10 K in terms of Units ya profitability coming through in the near term you got China Giga 3 which has been ahead of expectations so there's a short it's hard to have anything to sort of put your you know hands around here in order to stay bearish least in the near term let's pivot and start talking about your your 2020 pics Apple is on the list once again even though it's up 80% this year how much more upside and what's the key theme that supports Apple for the the year ahead yeah we sit here a year ago it was really a two-part theme because I fundamentally view at a third of the install base 350 million right now or in an upgrade opportunity you've seen a big part that success by phone 11 the next part is the 5g super cycle and even though many will say ok it's it all comes down to the math 1/3 of not upgrade in 39 months I put together 400 million units I think they ultimately sell in the next two years if you look at Frank more broadly a lot of tech Lash still exists out there that we haven't been speaking about it as much in the last several weeks but looking into 20/20 we know at least we think that President Trump will stay in the White House at least through the election we don't know after that what do you think happens from a regulatory standpoint to some of those big thing names when so many are still calling to look at them and they're anti potentially anti-competitive practices and I think this summer's and you've seen them go from the defensive to the offensive in terms of what Zuckerberg and Amazon as well as cook are doing I continue to think it's more you know finds rather than fundamental business model changes no doubt there's gonna be a lot of noise especially going to some of these hearings but that's why I think you seen Google and some others gonna get more into health care and financials Facebook's going to continue to expand so I think these companies it's really any time these stocks are off on the regulatory we're buyers of it in terms of our view of it's more fines rather than business model changes Josh you nervous that as you said earlier 9% of the index is Microsoft Apple you throw in another couple of massive companies Facebook and Google that we can't have the same type of leadership again for another year and that the broader market suffers because of it well you could have new leaders could have other stocks come you could have Amazon overtake the waiting in the index of my Christine these anything can happen I guess my question for you would be one of the recurring themes we heard throughout the first half of this year is that regulation was going to come down and all of the earnings expectations for the Facebook's Apple to a lesser extent Google would suffer now we know that the consumer didn't really care that much everyone's scream they want privacy they want new rules they want a police force some of the internet but they didn't change their behavior at all is that the big takeaway for investors going forward do you think that there might be some minor regulatory differences but as long as the consumer keeps coming back to these platforms it'll be business as usual again you have your pulse on it as well as anyone I think in all come a look at Facebook two and a half billion reasons why that stock continues to go higher and I think it does come down to the monetization is the key not just in Facebook but from what you see even and when you look at GDP are in Europe and some of the impacts there that's why the US I continue to think Fang weeds as higher our table Fang name is Apple because of the 5g supercycle but really bullish across the board on overall tech josh'll like this one done you you like slack at this level I mean my opinion slack is more of a winter's coming situation in terms of that and the amount more negative on slack because of how I view Microsoft in terms of how they're positioned towards slack on teams our fundamental research on slack continues to view that we have a cell rating on slack and I still think that's a neem that goes lower as they try to go up against Redmond on these teams deals they spread that you wouldn't like that one Josh I don't I don't mind I'll take the I'll take the other side you
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