저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
하락장에서 가격이 낮아졌다는 이유만으로 주식을 사는 것은 위험하다는 취지. 핵심은 기업을 이해하지 않은 채 주가 하락만 보고 매수하면 더 떨어질 때 대응하지 못한다는 점이다. 사례: Polaroid는 130에서 100 아래로 떨어졌을 때 매수가 몰렸으나 1년 내 18까지 하락했다. 본인이 Kaiser Industries를 26→16→10→3까지 떨어지는 동안 보유·매수한 경험도 언급했다. 당시 Kaiser는 무부채였고 여러 자회사를 보유해 시가총액(약 7,500만 달러)이 Boeing 747 한 대 가격 수준이었다. 결국 회사는 주식 배분과 자산 매각으로 주주에게 주당 약 50달러를 돌려줬다. 주가가 100에서 3으로 떨어졌다고 해서 '3 아래로 얼마나 더 떨어지겠나'라는 생각은 잘못이며, 30달러든 3달러든 투자 금액을 모두 잃을 수 있다. 공매도 투자자들은 하락 중에도 가격이 0으로 갈 것을 보고 계속 매도했다. 주가가 이미 많이 떨어졌다는 사실은 매수 근거가 되지 않는다. 기업 가치를 이해하는 것이 필수다. 이 발언에서 특정 종목에 대한 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 출연자 전망은 장기적 관점에서 기업 이해의 중요성을 강조하는 수준이다. 리스크: 기업 이해 없이 하락 종목을 매수하는 행위.
다듬은 글
is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further going to go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record whatever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that base and saying look it's got 135 to 100.
it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18. and this is coming with no debt I mean this is it was just so overpriced it went down uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from 26 this year to 16. I said how much longer can it go it's 16.
so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange advisor Industries at 14. I said you know it's gone from 26 to 16 how much longer can I go what can I call my mother and said Mom you go to uh look at this Kaiser Industries I mean how much lower can I go it's been from 26 to 10.
well I went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now I am fortunate this happened rapidly or I would probably be still cattying or working at the Stop and Shop but it happened fast I was able to say it was compressed and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40 of Kaiser steel they own 40 of Kai's aluminum they own 32 percent of kinds of cement they own Kaiser broadcast and then Kaiser Santa gravel Kaiser Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt It's Tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling it about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this will work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares they kind of cement The Vessel chairs and Casa aluminum they passed out the public shares and tries to steal they sold all the other businesses and you got about 50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock that got from 26 to 16 and then again 10 what would you do when it went to nine what would you do when I went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin if you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists that haven't worked so far I've never seen them running into the psychological Psychiatry fund I've never seen was listed for the uh with the SEC to make it through as a mutual fund so I they haven't seen the help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company you have this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back uh this one is a this one doesn't work either uh people think RCA just about to get back to its 1929 High when General Electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those Beauties uh uh floppy disks Western Union uh the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back uh here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can I lose I've had people call me up saying I'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much can I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20 000 at full at 50 to the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars in a three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that I think this is the only this may be a reason a researchers thought the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at Walmart they don't show at Home Depot they're not sure the great companies Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 7.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven that this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown TAPS in this thing yet it's going to zero and they're selling short seven they're selling a short at six at five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know what I should sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wanna who's buying this thing it's these people saying it's three how much lower can it go you know the uh thank you
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