저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 경제적 이익(EP) 관점에서 추세를 가진 기업을 찾으라는 전략이며, 금융·자본시장과 실물경기(capex·부동산) 전반에 걸친 장기 성장 추세를 강조한다. 핵심 주장: 기업의 경제적 이익은 자기자본비용(약 10%)을 차감해 계산하며, 시장은 이 지표를 기준으로 가치를 매긴다. 상위 20% 기업이 경제적 이익의 80%를 창출하므로 중간 집단에서 상위권으로 이동하는 '하키스틱' 기업을 찾는 것이 핵심이다. 추세 근거: 2011~2020년 자본시장 기업들의 실적은 부진했으나 2020년 이후 추세가 시작되어 3년간 이익이 약 10배 증가했다고 언급했다. 추세가 있어야 실적 성장과 고수익이 가능하다는 논지다. 거론된 추세: 자본시장 확대(증권·자산운용·브로커·예탁원 등 금융 인프라 수혜), 국내 저축 증가(10~12조달러 → 125조달러 수준으로 언급), 은행의 규모의 경제 수혜, 글로벌 자산운용사의 국내 진출 가능성. 실물경제: 정부 capex 확대 후 민간 capex 유입 기대, 부동산 업황 회복(2008~2023년 공백 이후) 기대, 시멘트 등 원가·가격 구조 변화 관찰 필요. 리스크: 경영진의 과도한 레버리지·무리한 사업 확장·시장 수요와 무관한 투자 등 규율 부족이 하키스틱 실패 요인으로 제시됨. 출연자 전망: 장기 강세장(Grand Finale)이 아직 남아 있다고 전망. 구체적 목표가·기간은 제시되지 않음. 개별 종목 언급: 특정 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 없음(IOC, Nestle, SBI, TCS, Reliance 등은 사례 또는 설명 목적으로만 언급).
다듬은 글
welcome back to this special chat with ramdev Agarwal of mial oswal we've been speaking about their 28th wealth creation study report as well as about uh uh you know the new boom that we are seeing in equity markets okay uh ramdev you were speaking about you written about this hockey stick move in some stocks uh can you tell us how do we pick the next stock you told us about all the astrals and the JB how do you pick the next hockey stick stock yeah so that that hard work has to be done by the investor himself okay I have given the framework see we read the book uh uh the hockey stick strategy uh strategy Beyond hockey stick you know so that's the book I think fantastic book on his strategy very practical and this is a way if you read the book and figure out so they have talked about concept of economic profit the first thing is economic profit and as a Char account and I mean we have done accounting and accoun Ing and there we talked about all net EPs and net profit but very simple thing is that when you do net profit as per accounts you you don't charge for the equity you charge for debt you charge for everything you don't adjust for cost of equity cost of equity so if you just take a simp instead of going through the some alpab beta if you just take the cost of equity as 10% because last 10 12 years return has been about 10% so you take 10% for all the companies you arrive at uh so we have given an example of uh a company like I think ioc and nesle or something like that so uh so one company uses one lakh CR of equity and profit is say 5 6,000 CR so actually there's economic loss whereas other company makes say 2,000 CR profit or 25,000 profit but uses hardly 2,500 crores so economic charge Capital charge is just about 250 cror at the rate of 15% so his economic profit is 2250 cror whereas the other guy though looks giant is actually economic loss and that's why Market has punished also yes market cap of the smaller company is much bigger than market cap of that large giant company so that to to some extent see in Market you cannot explain all the difference in valuation but yes this explains what Market values so we are not practicing it but Market is practicing it somewhere no but if by your logic of economic profit you know you have given us a list I'm trying to find that in your uh list the list of uh companies with highest economic profit and not accounting profit also includes SBI OMC I think you think their day has come TCS is the largest it's about 30,000 plus grow of economic profit then so we have given entire Nifty uh the entire list of where isly they stand in economic profit what happens is some of the companies like say Reliance doesn't show as a economic profit company but they are aulam of three four large businesses so they are making tons of money economic profit in their original business but they are probably investing in goo and Retail and whole lot of other things so that's why the fused company looks to be like not making economic profits the petrochemical or the so it's a sum of profits kind of situation so one has to uh analyze but basically when you are looking at single stream companies simple companies you know uh their economic profit as a concept is worth pursuing and what this study is about I mean the book is about is that you must measure the success of the companies in terms of economic profits and economic profit is distributed in a power curve situation so it goes like this so the 80% of the economic profit is in the top queenti So 20% of the companies and 80% of losses are also in the bottom quti so you have and then middle three 300 companies they are all gone nowhere types you have to look at companies migrating from the yeah so what he's saying the strategy is you find a company at the middle and what it takes to go from middle to the top quintile okay that journey of hocky stck when they do hocky sck earnings grow growth Market gives them with the reating super hacktic returns okay so economic profit the measurement is economic profit and the way to go about is there are three steps he's saying indom Trend and uh moves so what is indom so you any company started Journey with some kind of endent so they have compet Advantage they have brand they have distribution they have uh people they have businesses relationships those are all starting point yeah the endowment of the company yeah but there's no tent in the business so I mean the company will stay there only I mean there cannot be better person than me to talk about the benefit of trend I'm telling you in capital markets for last 10 12 years we've done so much of action as a corporate action whatever is possible we have turned the mountain I'm telling you and yet nothing much happens I mean we're doing well you saw you you saw this 2008 the decade of 201 so we have a l decade despite Massive Action when I look back yes but nothing happens because there is no trend now from 2020 the trend has started we are literally 10x in 3 years yeah in terms of profits absolutely so that power of trend is massive every business is different the trend is whom now you just spoke about government is into capex if they spend the money and private capex come so do we look for capex companies you have Trend and Trend all over like there are multiple trends like you play Scrabble you I mean your opponent cannot see what trend you are seeing in the it's like that there are so many Trends the whole universe is full of Trends business is full of Trends so something is happening in terms of it something is happening in AI something is happening in real estate demand something is happening in the cost structure of cement companies something is happening in pricing of cement companies so you have to find that Trend which is on which you can bet and Trends are short-term long-term cyclical secular all sorts of things are there about Trend just think about it you can keep thinking about Trends but without positive trend so it's like a Skeletor where a person is running on top of it you get a Skeletor and then you go at the speed of he himself plus a Skeletor and when the company's trend is headwind De you you are as if you're going to come down and SK is going up yes but still if you would pick up the top I know there are many trends that you can pick up what would be the top say two or three trends that are staring at you in the face so the newer ones are like a rise of uh rise of Capital Market like rise of retail capet that's very close to me so I'm saying that second is the The Bu build up in the savings boom in India from 10 12 trillion last 25 to1 125 trillion of savings so that would be mutual funds or Banks now this is where one has to figure out Banks of course will be beneficiary because bank is a scale economics and you need so they are going to be very large beneficial second of course all the asset management companies broking companies your cdsl NS B's uh whatever comes on the advisor all the wealth will be so much you know you need multi all the global wealth managers will be sitting here I'm telling you in next four five years they'll all open shops yeah so certainly financial sector Capital Market so so that's one part of it the second in real economy you're you're every day you keep coming out with a newer uh you know kind of now capex boom capex you know so government government let capex boom and now private sector is just knocking the door so the capex boom will happen so all kinds of real estate real estate is another one which which has almost one and half Decades of kind of absence I know com 2008 to 2023 and now they I think they will have very if they if they play their cards well see they also need that's where the CER move comes there is an endowment they have everything they have brand they have opportunity everything but and train also they have then after that you have to play your cards well so the managements have to remain very disciplined because it's very easy to be taken away by you know some some crazy G greed uh over leverage you know over leverage or overprice or over over leverage doing some nonsensical projects you know not doing something what the market wants so so being ahead of the market producing right quantity right product and giving to the market I think they it's not a 5 10 years it is multi-date trend for them it's a very large industry uh you know you have vetted our appetite to read the important full I have read it I have read every word of it but I would you know very strongly recommend that those who are serious investors should uh you know go ahead of or of course you can fall back on mutual funds you can fall back on uh the the the focus 35 or the focus 45 as you please thank you very much RV agal for discussing your report and for joining us on what's a really big day for the markets I think what stays with me is that the biggest of all bull runs is prob Grand Finale is still Grand Finale is still ahead those are the words that we should carry from this interview
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