저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2018년 2월 16일 시장 점검 영상으로, 진행자는 금리 상승과 연준 양적긴축이 4월경 증시 폭락을 부를 것이라 예측하고 달러 붕괴 가능성까지 주장함 【핵심 결론】 진행자는 미국 10년물 금리가 3%를 넘으면 문제가 시작되고, 3.25% 부근에서 다시 충격이 올 것이며, 결국 연준이 양적긴축을 멈추고 양적완화로 돌아서면서 달러가 붕괴할 것이라고 봄 【금리·연준 정책】 미국 10년물 금리는 약 2.86%로 전일 2.91%에서 소폭 하락했고, 이는 주식시장에 우호적이라고 설명 연준은 분기마다 보유채권 축소 규모를 늘리고 있으며, 10억→200억 달러 수준까지 올라 있다는 취지로 설명 3월 말 300억 달러로 확대될 것으로 예상하며, 이후 400억, 500억 달러로 계속 늘어날 계획이라고 주장 【시장 전망】 3월 말까지는 비트코인과 주식이 완만히 오르고, 4월경 주식시장 폭락이 올 것으로 예상 폭락 후 회복과 재상승을 거치다가 연준 개입으로 다시 금리 충격이 반복되는 순환이 이어질 것이라고 봄 【자산별 발언】 은: 온스당 16.73달러, 17달러 이하는 매우 좋은 가격이며 채굴원가에 가까워 달러 대비 안전한 헤지 수단이라고 평가 비트코인: 99,84달러 수준, 완만히 오르고 있으나 진행자 개인적으로는 지금 사기 좋은 시점은 아니라고 봄 다우지수: 전일 종가 25,200선, 개장 직후 소폭 약세이며 사실상 보합 수준 원유(WTI): 배럴당 61.12달러로 전일 대비 상승 달러인덱스: 89 수준으로 소폭 하락, 이전 90 부근에서 움직임 【달러 전망】 연준이 경제 약화와 실업률 상승을 이유로 결국 양적완화와 금리 인하로 방향을 틀 것이라고 주장 이 방향 전환 시점에 달러 바닥이 빠질 것이며, 사람들이 속았다는 것을 깨닫게 될 것이라고 전망 【출연자 인용】 피터 시프(Peter Schiff) 발언을 오디오로 인용하며 같은 취지의 견해라고 지지 시프는 물가·금리 상승이 거품을 터뜨리고, 연준이 결국 QE로 되돌아갈 것이라고 말함 【리스크】 10년물 금리 3% 돌파 및 3.25% 도달 시 증시 충격 가능성 연준의 정책 전환 시점이 달러 붕괴의 트리거가 된다는 시나리오 【특이사항】 영상 중 '4월 폭락'은 시기를 특정한 단기 예측이며, 달러 붕괴는 시점 불명확한 장기 전망으로 구분됨
다듬은 글
welcome everyone to your market watch today today is February 16th 2018 and you know what these markets are performing exactly as I expected them to perform if you've been watching my show for the past two weeks during the market crash and everything that it's just I predicted the turn in the markets exactly when they would occur and it's following right on par from what I expected and so what we're looking at here is first I'm going to start the charts right here and what we're gonna the first thing we're gonna look at is is sweet light crude oil sixty one dollars and twelve cents so even though it's showing this down a little bit it's up from yesterday it's back moving back up into the 60s again which is which is actually good for for a crude prices now we're gonna take a look at something that's really important right now and that's the bonds and rates because this is what I've been actually going by to understand what the markets gonna do is following these bonds and rates and they're right on cue from what expected the troubles gonna come when the win this US 10-year rate right here this one the US 10-year I'll highlight it for you when that goes over and three percent that's when we're gonna start to get into the problem area again now today the price of the US 10-year has actually fell back when I say the price I'm talking about the yield when the yields fell back a little bit the 2.86 it was two point nine one the other day and this is good this is supportive of the stock market the rally that's going on back up again with the Dow Jones now I'm waiting for the Dow Jones to come online it should come online in a boat four more minutes so I'm kind of showing you some other things first let's take a look at the silver price while we wait the silver price right now is at sixteen dollars and 73 cents anything below 17 is really really good right now it's down nine cents on the day but it's traveling in a very narrow range up here in for the last few days in around 1690 1673 today but silver has really been going nowhere for ages the price you know it's been staying here in this range has been range bound between say 1670 and 1720 and around that area for ages now it'll bounce down a little bit and it'll come back up again then bounce down a little bit that's because it's awfully close to mining production cost silver is a terrific value right now so it's a real safe bet it's a real safe hedge against fiat currencies simply put so now let's take a look at the cryptocurrency market while we wait Bitcoin we're gonna go to bitstamp and we see bitcoin price is at ninety nine eighty four so it's been slowly gathering steam slowly moving upwards I expect this trend to continue for a little period of time I personally my opinion is I don't think that bitcoins a real good buy right now and I'll tell you why I think it's going to continue upwards slowly like it has been doing up until March the end of March and then when April comes stock markets going to crash a problem I'm thinking sometime in April but what might happen is they might be able to have another another crash like we just had and then they might be able to recover from it and price it in again but they'll only go three months until the next time the Fed raises and does steeper reverse quantitative easing what they're doing is is they're the raising the bar every time the Fed is ten billion dollars every three months they're raising it by and what happened was is they raised the bar in October November in December they had it at 10 billion and then they increased it the end of January it became effective we only went one week into that with the newer twenty billion I'm raising it from 10 billion to 20 billion and that little market correction that we had was caused by that because of the effect it had on interest rates when they raise that bar again at the end of March is when they're gonna raise that bar again they're gonna raise it from 20 billion to 30 billion that's gonna have an effect on the interest rates again you're gonna find that rates are gonna rise and what the effect is gonna be is on the stock market the stock market right now is priced this in but it's only gonna remain priced in until it gets up to around three point two five percent on the 10-year and then we're gonna have a sudden jolt again this is going to keep happening this cycle almost like wash rinse repeat and until we get a crash out of this and they're gonna keep pushing this until they get a crash they're not going to the feds not gonna stop until they get the crash and this is what's gonna send everything in to hilter's kilter now if we take a look at the Dow Jones has it started yet no it hasn't started and it's 10:31 we must be almost on the time for it to go so we'll take a look at a couple other things the dollar index 89 so the dollar is down a little bit but on the day it's up but it is down a little bit it was running around 90 now it's 89 so we're kind of waiting on this Dow Jones Industrial Average so what I'll talk about for a minute then I'll talk about Peter Schiff and I was listening to him this morning and I taped a little excerpt of it that I'm gonna play well we'll do the Dow Jones for what it is right now it closed at twenty five thousand two hundred right that's three hundred and six points up so I'm expecting the day the style there we go there she just started she's down two point three nine okay which is nothing that's almost like unchanged but here's the thing so we got the doubt done now let's see yeah we've covered everything okay so let's talk about Peter Schiff I recorded a little excerpt from the show Peter Schiff it's audio only and Peter Schiff is basically talking about the exact thing that I'm talking about here oh he uses his own words to describe exactly what I'm expecting to happen how the dollar is actually going to be destroyed when the Fed comes in and tries to improve the situation that they are creating right now the situation that they are creating right now involves everything around them selling their toxic balance book and this is raising interest rates and as these interest rates are going up as having a shock effect on the stock market they're only going to be able to go so far with this before they're gonna have to reverse direction and when they actually do decide to reverse direction on all of this they're gonna turn the entire flow of money around in the opposite direction it it was trying to go that way anyway but before they started selling their toxic balance book them raising interest rates wasn't enough to hold it back that's that's what they've been doing is selling their toxic balance book and they're gonna increase with this they will increase all the way up to fifty billion dollars a month they have that planned they've only increased the twenty billion a month so far and you see what it's done to the stock market but the stock market was able to price that in but when they go to thirty billion and March the end of March in the April we're gonna be one running at thirty billion a month then they're only gonna go with that for three months if there's no crash or anything if everything stays good they will increase it to forty billion three months later and then they'll increase it to fifty billion three months after that I mean they're just gonna keep going with this until they bring everything down and when they bring everything down then they're gonna have to go back to some sort of monetary stimulus this is obvious and this is obvious to Peter Schiff Peter Schiff and his words I'm gonna get him to say basically the same thing but he's saying it in his own words and I'm in total agreement with what he has to say and this ultimately is going to be the demise of the dollar in the end and we're coming right around to this this is coming fast it's only a month or two away now at this point I know everybody has waited for so long they think that it's never going to get here a lot of you have have studied this and you'll understand what I'm talking about completely you know that this situation is going to end in tragedy for the dollar but you just the question is when well the timing now is we're almost on top of it so now listen to Peter Schiff and we'll catch you guys in the next report tomorrow bye bye for now go up and big increases in consumer prices big increases in interest rates and that's gonna prick this bubble but the the scary part is going to be the reaction that the Fed has because the Fed is gonna react almost routine oh oh the economy is weakening unemployment is picking up the markets are falling we got to go back to QE we've got to cut rates and we got to do more QE well the market is not expecting that the market has been bracing for more rate hikes and for quantitative tightening yet despite all this the dollar is falling gold is rising commodities are rising but when when the Fed has to do an about-face then that's it the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar because people are gonna realize that they've been lied to by
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