[WKF 2019 Replay] Economic Crisis caused by the Spike in Oil Price | Nouriel Roubini

요약 보기

루비니는 세계 경기가 이미 둔화 국면이며 제조업·산업 부문은 미국, 유럽, 아시아, 일부 신흥국에서 이미 침체 상태라고 진단한다. 한국 수출이 감소하고 기업의 설비투자도 대부분 지역에서 급감했다고 지적한다. 기업들은 미중 무역·기술 갈등의 불확실성 때문에 대규모 투자를 미루고 있다는 설명이다. 그는 이 상황을 공급 충격으로 분류하며, 공급 충격은 생산을 줄이고 물가를 올린다는 점에서 금융위기형 수요 충격보다 위험하다고 본다. 유가 급등 시나리오로는 사우디 석유시설 드론 공격에 따른 생산 차질과 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 가능성을 든다. 이 경우 유가가 배럴당 100~120달러까지 치솟고 미국 휘발유 가격이 갤런당 4~5달러로 오를 수 있다고 경고한다. 대부분의 한국·중국·유럽·인도·터키 등 순에너지 수입국은 피해를 보고, 산유국만 이익을 얻는다고 설명한다. 과거 1973년 욤키푸르 전쟁, 1979년 이란 혁명, 1990년 이라크의 쿠웨이트 침공 때 유가 급등이 스태그플레이션과 경기침체를 낳았던 역사를 근거로 든다. 미국이 셰일 덕분에 중동 의존도가 낮아졌지만, 유가가 100달러를 넘으면 소비자 소득이 줄어 소비가 무너지고 미국 경제도 침체에 빠질 수 있다고 본다. 결론적으로 지정학적 충격에 따른 공급 충격이 성장을 낮추고 인플레이션을 높여 세계 경제를 침체로 몰아넣을 수 있다는 것이 핵심 주장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. between 16 and 18 with the economic expansion acceleration of global growth but since the middle of last year with a deceleration and not only we have a deceleration but if you're looking at some parts of the global economy we're already in a recession the manufacturing industrial sector are in a recession in europe in u.s in asia in some emerging markets exports are down in many parts of the world starting with korea and capital spending by the corporate sector investment into new machinery and factories has also fallen sharply it's most regions of the world and that's not the surprise because as i fully point out one of the biggest global tale risk is the risk of a full-scale trade currency technology and cold war between us and china and therefore if you are a corporation us in europe and china in korea and you have excess capacity why would you want to build a new factory spend billions of dollars if you don't know the weather by the end of this year there'll be 30 or 40 percent tariff on all chinese goods exported to the united states so whenever there's this uncertainty about trade risk and protection is there is a what economies refer to as the option value of waiting there's uncertainty you want to wait and see whether these trade wars is going to escalate or not and therefore you don't want to make long-term investment decisions that are sunk cost and therefore it's better to wait and therefore capital spending is down it's important because during the global financial crisis where the negative aggregate demand shock while the shocks i'm going to talk about are not demand shocks they're more supply and why supply shocks are important because supply shocks are negative reduces output but also increases inflation in the last few months actually all prices had fallen for a while because they were worried about the global recession and global recession there'd be less demand for all goods and oil and therefore all prices were falling they took an accident a low-tech attack using drones against uh u.s oil facility to cut off for a few weeks maybe months almost half of the saudi production we're not speaking about high-tech weapons just a bunch of drones with bombs on it and if there was a full scale of course hot water between us and iran uh then you could have a block of the street of hormuz and you'll have a spark of oil prices to 100 or 120 dollar barrel and gasoline prices in the us of four or five dollar a gallon and of course many other countries in the world are net energy importer korea china most of europe turkey india many other emerging markets the only beneficiary will be some of the all exporters now most of you in this audience i see are you you're young enough not to remember but it was a young teenager when in 1973 there was the yom kippur war between us uh between israel and the arab states following that war there was an old embargo all prices tripled and you had in 7475 stagflation recession and inflation double digit inflation 1979 you had the iranian revolution again another all-embargo oil prices double another recession 8082 in u.s and globally and even the 1991 recession in the united states and globally was driven in part by the june 1990 iraq invasion of kuwait that led to another spike in oil prices so you already had in the last few decades three major global recessions and spikes in inflation negative supply shocks that were driven by a geopolitical shock in the middle east that led to a spike in oil prices people say today u.s has shell gas and oil depends less on middle east it's true but if all goes above 100 per barrel first everybody else in the world that is met all important like you guys are going to hurt and in the u.s the profits of all producers go up but every consumer is going to have a squeeze in its income and that's going to collapse consumption so on that even the u.s even today would suffer from a major all shock so an old shock has the ability even today even with weaker opaque even with shell gas and oil of tipping the us and the global economy into a recession and it's a negative supply shock that reduces growth and causes a rise in inflation