저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Bill Ackman는 경기침체가 와도 우량 기업의 본질가치는 크게 훼손되지 않는다고 주장한다. 외식 시장에서는 패스트푸드·QSR이 침체기에 상대적으로 강하다고 본다. 그는 침체가 가치를 파괴하는 경우는 고부채 기업이 매출 감소로 현금흐름이 마이너스가 되어 파산하는 상황뿐이라고 설명한다. 유니버설뮤직처럼 저렴한 여가 서비스는 침체에도 해지되지 않는다는 논리다. 넷플릭스는 구독자 감소 이후 광고 모델 전환 등 사업 모델이 바뀌면서 예측 가능성이 떨어져 매도했다고 밝힌다. 도미노피자도 인건비·기사 확보 어려움과 고금리 환경, 밸류에이션을 고려해 1년 만에 이익을 실현하고 팔았다. 현재 포트폴리오 회사는 장기 보유가 원칙이며, 자사주 매입 프로그램(월 약 150만 주, 발행주식의 약 0.75%)을 진행 중이라고 말한다. 자사는 순자산가치 대비 35% 할인된 가격에 거래되고 있어 자사주 매입이 가장 쉬운 투자라고 강조한다. 소규모로 기회주의적 헤지 포지션(자본의 약 1~2.5%, 전체 약 5~6%)에 투자 중이라고 하며, 주식은 아직 충분히 싸지 않다고 본다. 추가 매수 대상으로는 하워드휴즈(Howard Hughes)의 지분 확대 공개매수만 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Bill are you worried about potential recession hurting us consumer consumers starting to spend less of course this would feed through to lower earnings of some of these companies in your portfolio where we are in the restaurant space is kind of the highest value per dollar right Chipotle is an incredible meal at a very low cost for a family and in a recessionary environment historically people don't stop eating out but they might adjust from the sit-down restaurant with menus and a waitress to a you know a fast food environment or a place where they go pick up their own food at the counter and you know actually the the fast food if you will the Quick Service restaurants have generally done well in recessionary environments and I think the overarching point that the value of a business unless it's a highly levered very economically sensitive company is not particularly affected by the event of a recession right if you own it the value of a stock right the value of an interest in a company is the present value of the cash that business generates over its life and if it's a business that should exist forever won't pick Hilton for example we can expect that over you know over in in past history there's been a recession every seven or eight years let's assume the future is the same and there's a recession every seven or eight years going forward it doesn't that's kind of factored into the value of the of the Enterprise the only reason why a recession creates it destroys value is you have a company that is highly levered and then if revenues decline you know their cash logo is negative and they can't they can't they can't support their debt and they go bankrupt right but if you own a very well capitalized business I don't think a recession has a meaningful impact it might affect that Year's revenues and cash flow but that's just one line item and a long spreadsheet of cash flows that you discount if you will into the present but the businesses we own Universal Music being the largest one uh and a good example you know people are not going to we think cancel their apple music subscription because we're in recession it's the cheapest form of entertainment it's you know 10 cent an hour or something like this compare that to a movie or a video game and you pay a lot more you sold a stake in Netflix this year after only owning it for three months you sold your stake in dominoes you only bought that last year aren't you a believer in long-term investment particularly with Netflix obviously share price is up quite a bit since you sold it yes so we are we look for businesses we can own so to speak forever our favorite holding period is something that we never need to sell Universal Music I hope is something we'll never need to sell but we always reserve the right that if new information comes to life that causes us to reassess our original thinking uh you know we're prepared to exit and and Netflix is really the traditional example of that I mean a business uh What attracted US Stock was down from the you know middle 700s to you know High 300s on a subscriber miss that the company attributed to you know coveted difficulty predicting kind of the covid uh you know Netflix huge beneficiary didn't covered and the thought was you know they got a little bit off trend um three months later they came back and said well we're not sure it's actually coveted we think that the we have a much larger number of un unpaying I.E people who share passwords than we thought or then we at least disclosed previously this is causing us to reassess our business model we're going to go to you know an advertising model and while we have enormous confidence and a management team that's done a fantastic job over many many years uh it's a completely new approach to their business and I think it for us it made the future difficult to predict in terms of the future of you know what's going to happen and we own we're very concentrated investor we put a large amount of capital in each commitment we want these to be things that we can predict with a high degree of confidence over a long period of time and Netflix became if you will unpredictable for us so we sold it and we sold it around 225 a share now 275 this year um and uh I actually remember a precise exit price uh it's trading above the price we exited but that doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision to exit for us an investor owns 100 stocks is a place for Netflix an investor owns nine or ten in light of the uncertainty created by the changes and how they're going to approach their Market we felt it was not something that could fit into our portfolio in general we like to own things for the long term on Domino's we actually made a profitable investment over the course of the Year our original holding period intention was not a year but the world changed in a pretty one got a lot more difficult to get labor a lot more difficult to find drivers much higher interest rate environment and the combination of those factors and the valuation that when we sold made it in our view just a less attractive opportunity we'd rather deploy the cash elsewhere I mean obviously the market has thrown up some big opportunities this year have you have you sort of been buying anything new recently so actually the biggest so we put our capital in two places one we launched uh one of the more aggressive buyback programs out there we're buying in about a million and a half shares uh you know approaching about three quarters of a percent of our shares outstanding every month that's a pretty aggressive program it's about 28 of the amateurs outstanding we think that's the easiest investment that we can make right now one we're well capitalized you know plenty of cash on hand two we're trading at it as you know a 35 discount to nav uh three our companies are trading at in our view deep discounts and their intrinsic values you get the benefit of that double discount so we think that's been a good place to deploy Capital The Other Place we've been deploying capital is some of these sort of more opportunistic Hedges we're investing a relatively small you know maybe one two two and a half percent of our capital and each of these various commitments together comprising at cost you know five or six percent of our Capital but Investments we can make 6X 8X 10x and sometimes more that seems a better use of capital for our marginal dollar than the next big Equity commitment and we've looked at a couple of things become closer to prices where we would own them um but stocks haven't really gotten cheap enough for us to take our last dollar and buy the next big commitment so I know that you like to take large stakes in companies but not controlling Stakes but of your existing Holdings and is it in terms of which ones you'd buy more on is there any sort of they're approaching levels which actually don't want to increase no I mean I think we'd buy more of anything we owned the current price with the only caveat being it how large a percentage of the portfolio any individual position might be so the only position we're trying to increase as we speak I have to be cautious on how I speak about it because we have an ongoing tender offer but Howard Hughes stock it was one of our smaller positions down at one point forty plus percent for the year and we've made an offer to the other shareholders to buy an incremental 13 of the company and we'll find out in the next couple weeks what percentage we get but that's the only thing that we're buying right now
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