저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia는 주식 장기투자(최소 5년)와 현금성 투자 원칙을 강조하며, 금·비트코인·트럼프·중국 등에 대해 명확한 가격 예측은 하지 않았다. 투자 철학: 주식시장은 준비 없이 쉽게 뛰어드는 곳이 아니며 지식·용기·인내가 필요하다고 설명. 주식은 부를 창출하고 금은 부를 보존하는 자산이라 구분했다. 매매 원칙: 하락 시 평균단가 낮추기보다 확신을 가지고 보유하며, 최소 5년 장기 보유를 전제. 과거 실적이 부진했던 우량 기업이 회복 변곡점에 이르면 투자하는 전략을 제시. 선물옵션 및 트레이딩: 선물옵션 투자는 투자와 달리 장기적으로 수익이 어렵다는 입장이며, 트레이딩으로 시작해 투자로 넘어가는 방식에 회의적이다. 금·은: 현재 금 가격은 약 100% 상승한 상태로 높다고 보며, 단기간 추가 상승 가능성은 언급했으나 향후 10년간 주식 대비 전망은 밝히지 않았다. 본인 포트폴리오의 10~15%를 금·은에 두었고 추가 매수·매도는 하지 않는다고 함. 비트코인·가상자산: 비트코인은 계속 존재할 것이라 보나 변동성이 커 소액 투자자에게 부적합하다고 언급. 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 중국·인도·정책: 중국은 공산주의 체제를 활용한 산업 육성으로 21세기 경이로운 성장을 이뤘다고 평가. 인도는 인프라·내수(관광·항공·호텔·병원) 섹터가 향후 10년간 성장할 것이라고 전망. 스타트업: 약 20개 스타트업(주로 AI·로봇 등 기술 기업)에 투자 중이라고 밝힘. 트럼프: 관세 정책을 지지하는 입장을 보이며 인도 내 정치적 발언을 비판함. 리스크: 시장 소음·팁·스토리에 휘둘리지 말 것, 레버리지 투자 위험 경고. 개별 종목·자산 가격 방향 예측: 없음(인도 내수 섹터 언급 외 특정 종목명 미언급).
다듬은 글
Expert Investing. He is also an expert lyricist, poet, singer and a driver of financial literacy through music. How are you sir today? Good, good, not bad, could be better? How do you like Hyderabad? How do you like Hyderabad? Hyderabad. How do you like the city, Hyderabad? Hyderabad is of course one of the best city in India and this is the first city I think a first state which introduced it here and there was a time when they used to call it Cyberabad or so of course all because of Chandrababu Naidu at that point of time in 90 of course wonderful city wonderful people let's have a very big round of applause again for Mr Vijay Kedia so sir I will start with the session session.
So you started from zero. You have created a considerable amount of wealth by starting from zero. So out of 140 crore people in India I think few thousands must have done this like 10,000, 20,000 something. So what do you think ah stop people from creating this kind of wealth from the stock market. So, ah first of all I tell you that everybody starts from zero only.
You know and I am still work in progress. So whatever little progress I have made is still under the process as they say and as you ask that out of 140 crore people why there are only few successes in this market. So the simple answer is this that like suppose if you want to become a CA Chartered Accountant.
So you have to give five years and you want to become a doctor and you want to become a lawyer. So you have to give five years for your academic degree and for your practice like for CA you have to go for some articleship then you have to work under someone and then after you can take your profession you can as a full time profession then only right so but you ask people what they do when they want to get into the market there is no degree there is no experience there is no articleship state away from your bedroom and from your from from your dining dining table in 2 minutes, you become a see you become an investor.
And a trader. So that is the root cause of all the problems. Just because people don't take it seriously and they are just passing their time. So you're not so that's why there's a code of mind that market rewards us on your perception. If you treat it as a gamble then it will prove to be a gamble for you.
So this is what I think most of the people are doing. Life If You Go to the Casino You Don't Have to Prepare Yourself. The only thing you have to prepare for is how much money you can lose. That Much Money Only You Will Carry. So this is what the approach people are having when they get into the market.
And that is why 90% of people are not successful in this market. Ok. So sir, you are a multibagger specialist. And you have identified a multibagger at a very early stage. So do you use a lens that allows you to see a multibagger that the rest of us don't? No, it's not like that, everyone sees it, but the thing is that there is no alignment between seeing it, thinking about what you are seeing, or creating a story out of it, and then implementing it.
So, this is just empty ego reason. And what do I do? I'm like I've said this thing many times on various platforms. So whenever a star athlete, a star athlete with a glorious track record, falls sick and suppose if he or she is out of form at that time I put that athlete on my radar. So, if a company has done some big work in the past and now, due to some reason, it is in recession or is sick or is out of form, then I wait for such a company for the inflection point and I keep on watching the stock may be for four years, five years some time and when I find and when I realize that now this is the inflection point at that time, whatever money I am having at that point of time, I will invest in that company.
So it's a very simple process but it 's very difficult to implement. So this is what I am doing in my life. Okay, lots of patience then. Or of course three things are required in this market knowledge, courage and patience. So of course without this you cannot be successful. Yes very true. So Sir, as our shares are going down by around 30-40% as the market was going on and is still going on.
30 40 50 whatever it takes down so much. So then what do you do? What is your strategy then? Like do you average it out or do you exit or do you hold it? So I will give you the answer in this way. Like suppose you are going in a train. Suppose from A you are going to G. Suppose it is a train journey.
If a train reaches an intermediate station an hour earlier, you will not get off the train. Yes. And suppose the train reaches a station one hour late, you will still not get off. So this is what the same formula I am applying in my stocks also. It doesn't matter to me because I know my destination.
That I need to hold the stock for a long period of time. I don't have any time horizon but at least for a long period of time. Not less than five years. This is what whenever I invest in any company, that thought process is always there in my mind. That I need to remain invested for at least five years and all.
So in these five years you will get many hiccups. You will get many ups and downs. You will see you have to go through all those challenges. Sometimes stocks will perform better than your expectations and many times it will perform according to your expectations. So if you keep on writing that you boarded the train at a station and got off at another station, then you will miss the bus and you will miss the train.
So I don't do that, no, I am average also because in the beginning only whatever age I said date whatever money I am having I invest at one go, so I usually I don't average and I just stay put, okay I watch the show, okay, so you stay with your conviction or I stay with my conviction, okay, and in your career of like 30 40 years, ah, do you have any regrets of missing a story that was good, you were also watching it, but somehow you missed it.
No, there are many such stories which I did not take and missed and there are many such stories which I took and did not work and but I do not have any full proof answer as to why this happened, the answer comes to you later, which is called on the hand side, you come to know later, if I did this or that, I did not do this, I did not do that, this comes to know later, I did not know earlier, so by saying this, for so many days in the market, I understood that regret is the lifestyle disease of investing, so I regret for a while, maybe for a day, two days, four days, then it goes out of my mind, then I think about the future, when I think less about the past and that is why I say this many times at many places, it reminds me of a song from a movie that whatever I got, I considered it my destiny, whatever I lost, I kept forgetting it, I kept supporting life, I kept blowing away every worry in smoke, Sir, I will have to sing you a song today.
I sing in the bathroom so [laughs] bathroom singer. A song is made in the end. So sir one more question, as if there is a new investor. And that person has only about like 1 lakh, 2 lakh such small capital. So what he thinks is that he should do some trading, make some money from it, create some capital.
And then you then he starts investing because what will you keep 1 lakh or 2 lakh in investing ? Meaning nothing will come out of it. So what do you think of this idea? Look, there is a quote of mine inside this that investing is like milking a cow and trading in future options is like milking a bull.
So no matter how much you milk the bull, milk is not going to come out of it. So by saying this, this is a kind of misconception among the people which is called a myth. That I can earn money from trading and then invest it and I can also be successful but the success rate is very low. In fact, it happens with many people that the margin money for trading also gets lost.
So after that you are neither at home nor at the ghat, that is what is called. So saying this I also wrote a song saying open your eyes brother. Just think a little brother, nine out of ten people lose money in trading. It seems simple but it is a maze, no one could escape it, how do you write CA, BA or MBBS, the one who has nothing to do writes songs, madam [suddenly sound of heavy breathing] Sir, so what is your biggest learning in the stock market, there are so many ups and downs and you have seen so many cycles, so what is the biggest learning that you think is not the biggest learning, I feel like I have seen one thing in the market that I have said at many places that the stock market is like an ocean.
Like when you go to the sea, some people go there for a stroll and just get their feet wet in the market. After wandering around like this, we reached the beach. Some people come and collect Sheepu. Some bring some toys. He comes to do everything. Some people go fishing. And some people who have a long vision or debt, they go in search of minerals.
So this is the stock market. So what is this you need to understand? So everything is available here. If you want to come for fun then come to BTST or future option. If gambling and you want to trade, if your target is short term, then you can catch fish by going a little 100 meters inside the surrounding areas and do this, and if you want to create wealth and have a big vision, then you will have to do minerals, but the deeper you go into the sea, the greater the risk reward ratio, there is risk and reward in it and the risk reward ratio is high in it, but for that again you need courage, so the market gives you everything that you will take, whatever you will go with, it gives you everything.
So it depends on what you are thinking. Yes very true. Sir, the price of gold is sky rocketing right now and I think people are forecasting that it will increase further. So if you have to compare gold vs equity in the coming 10 years in India. So what do you think it is going to be? I don't know. The situation with gold is such that right now it has given very good returns.
It's already up by 100% I think and in the last 10 years it has given phenomenal returns. But gold also has a history. Let me tell you that a people compare gold with equity and all. That in 10 years gold has outperformed and done well. So, equity is actually a wealth creator. And gold is a wealth preserve.
You can preserve whatever wealth you have made and whatever money you have made. You can preserve by way of hoarding gold or but it does not have any productivity. Once you buy gold, there is no productivity inside it. And you see, equity is what drives the economy. The equity money is what runs the company.
The company drives the economy. The economy runs the country. That thing is not there in gold. So having said that I think the gold has given a phenomenal return. It may continue to give similar returns may be for another six months and one year I don't know but people should not forget that there are times when gold has performed for 10 years performance of gold is zero yah aisa bhi time hua hai gold ke andar me aisa aaya to mere ko lagta hai ho may not be today it may be next year such time is kept for coming back so it's a life cycle ok so you are like full on equity I am no I am full on equity I have also invested into gold and silver also may be as on date my 10 15% portfolio is into gold and silver may be I had invested two three years back.
So but I am not going to invest it further and I am not going to sell it also. Okay yeah. So it's like this is what my mom, my nani told my mom and my nani's mom told my nani that gold is what I should keep. This is the same pattern we are also following. Or now a days people I have started talking about investing.
Otherwise, I first took the gold and then forgot about it. No one knows how much gold is there and what is missing. But you do it in ETF Gold ETF Silver ETF. I have invested in SGB the Sovereign Gold Bond but now the government has closed down that scheme and Silver ATF ok ok and what do you think of the Trump impact in India, sometimes what he is saying, sometimes what he is saying, you know sometimes he does terror, sometimes he puts restrictions in visa.
So, what do you think is going to be the impact of Trump? No, I am in his favor. Whatever he does , it is a good thing. Why not ? It is his country. Now you will sit here and criticize him. He imposed such a tariff. He did it. He did this. Hey Baba, you think about yourself. He is the President of USA.
To run him to USA. He has his own agenda. He has his own data. So let him think about it. I am asking you a simple question madam, like suppose you are having a shop and you have some fixed customers who come every weekly or monthly and shop from you. Once suddenly a shop comes next door. You can understand that she starts selling it cheaply.
He does n't need it and your customer stops coming to you. So you will criticize the customer as to why he is not coming. Look what a bad customer he is. Look, I did this, I did that. And it's your wish, brother. You should also compete with him. What benefit is Trump going to get by you abusing him ?
He is able to understand that. He is doing it for his country. And here, failing in matriculation or five classes has also become a fashion these days. Waking up in the morning and abusing Trump, he abused him this way and that way. So why don't you have the skills brother? You improve yourself. You should consider yourself a competitive world brother, we the whole world is one, as if we are talking right now, instead of abusing after waking up in the morning.
Abusing is cheap and easy. Even those who do not understand anything are abusing him. So I think that is a very good thing. What Trump is doing is first of all he is the President of a country. Whatever he understands, he is doing reforms for his country. Let him think whether it will be good or bad for him.
You do n't know your home address. I don't know about my own career. What is going to happen to my career? You prepare for a US career. Hey, inflation will increase. You will lose your job. This will happen, that will come. I think he should not concentrate on all these things. Every challenge prepares you for a new character, a new avatar, so that your new self is born in a new form.
So I also wrote a song for Trump and its stanza was that it is good that you raised us. We also awakened the sleeping power. Now we will find new ways. Now the time has come for a developed India. We will take a breath only after making India the number one country by 2047. Creation is then history.
Creation is then history. It's simple. You think about yourself. Sir, one more question, China is growing so much and it has grown a lot in the last 20-30 years. So what like as a country India and what as Indians we can learn and unlearn from China. Look, one thing is that I have been investing in China for the last two-three years, in Chinese ATF.
So my perception may be biased but it does n't matter. I think China is the first wonder of the 21st century. Just think, where was China 50 years ago? Where was China 30 years ago and today China has transformed itself so rapidly. This is a lesson for the whole world. You should understand this, the country which only copied the products of others.
Used to copy other's products till 1990-2000. But they did, and this is the advantage of communism. People abuse communism because communism is misused. Rather, you should now see that democracy also has a role to play in India's slow growth. I am not saying that communism is good and democracy is bad.
But everything has side effects. If you eat too much sweets, it also has more side effects. So this is the side effect of democracy. So I think that China has used its communism very well. First of all, he built the world's biggest manufacturing factory. It created such a huge manufacturing capacity that the entire world became dependent on China.
If we do any capacity development in India, then we think about what is the demand today, so there is a demand of 5 lakh meters. For example, if someone wants to install a plant, it will take 25,000 meters. We do not have the same thinking as China. China talks about how much demand there is in the world.
So I have to set up a factory accordingly. Something has to be produced accordingly. Manufacturing has to be done. The whole world is my customer. So China started from here and with this they conquered the world. The money that came from that was not spent solely on that thing. He invested in infrastructure and technology.
Today, China is the world's second largest competitor after the US but is the biggest competitor of the US and will soon leave it behind. That is within the technology. China is a powerhouse of science and technology. So this is what we should learn from him and he used his communism to uplift the lives of people.
So I think we have huge challenges here because of politics, because of opposition and because of different governments at every state. So if this person does it, the same state will oppose it, if that person does it, this one will oppose it. And the biggest point is corruption. So having said this, if we actually look at our competition with China, I have always said on various platforms that there is no competition of India with China, China is way ahead than us and it is very difficult to catch up with China, they are at a 20 trillion dollar, they are a 20 trillion dollar economy and a 4 trillion dollar economy, even if they grow by 34%, then also they are adding a decent amount of ah GDP in their economy, so even if it grows by 4 taka, then it will grow by 800 billion dollars.
It will add every year and even if we grow 8 taka out of 6.5, we will still add only 300 billion year on year. Even if we grow 8 taka, we will grow 300 billion. So China is well ahead of us, we should learn from it how to become a world power? Or and sir which sector are you looking at like 5 years, 10 years down the line in India which sector do you think is going to boom?
There will be some sectors? So while we are talking it is because the world has become very dynamic and so many policies are changing every now and then. So it is very difficult to say whatever we speak now will remain relevant after one month or not but I think we are still lagging behind in infrastructure, I think infrastructure companies, infrastructure sector should do well and I think the government is also awakening up domestic theme should do well.
I think tourism should do well. Like airlines should do well. Hotel Hospital Should Do Well The way our population is rising and so I think hospital sector should do well. So any domestic theme I think should do well in for the next 10 years? Ok. Ok. Domestic theme means tourism and yes. Tourism hospitality, tourism, hospitals and plus what you call airlines as I said and whatever domestic theme plus infrastructure.
Ok. Please tell me some shares also. No, that SEBI, my wife just told me not to talk too much. [suddenly loud breathing] And sir because AI is so trendy right now. So do you use AI tools for investing or anything you are considering or will use? No, I do n't use AI for much AI investment. Of course I crunch data etc.
If you understand that I have any data, any report, then I summarize it with the help of AI and take it out and I am not dependent on AI for investment, then nothing of my mind will be left, then AI will give you the same data which is already stored, how will it give you new thinking, you will have to think about that yourself, okay sir, one personal question, I just saw when you are coming here, I just saw that you pierced your ear, so why is that ear pierced that you got it pierced just now.
So why is that? Well, some fashion statement and no, my wife keeps twisting my ear again and again. No, I will answer this for you. It is like what parents say, if anyone says anything bad, if anyone says anything negative, then listen to it with one ear and let it go out from the other ear. So this happens in our market also.
There is so much noise here, so many tips, every person has four stories. And nowadays so many startups and other stories have come into the market. So every day you keep getting some new things. So if I apply the formula of listening with one ear and letting it out with the other, then by the time it goes from one ear to the other, it reaches the brain.
So I got one pierced here so that it doesn't go from one ear to the other. Drain out from here. I am joking. And sir, because you just talked about startups. So do you invest in startups also? Yes, yes, I have invested in about 20 startups. I have invested in 20 startups. So these days my focus is more on startups.
I feel that in the public market, the valuation is not very cheap and if it is cheap then it does not work. So I invested in startups and mainly in technology companies, robotic AI or such companies, tech companies, yes tech companies, most of the 90% are tech. Okay okay so sir you will have to sing a song, first get that door closed from there I am sure everybody is waiting for your song, otherwise I will request you to sing a song, I will not request you sir to sing a song, no no my voice is a little bad right now, so I had written a song that oh my market, do business like a business, so let me tell you one stanza of it that future option leveraging is not everyone's cup of tea, stay away from penny stocks, they have no capability, forget the tip and add SIP, invest even when the market falls oh my market man this is not a casino please understand let's have a very big round of applause for Mr Vijay Kedia.
Thank you sir. Thank you for coming. Thank you so much for an enlightening conversation. I request you to please stay back, sir. Request to please stay back with us. Well, let's have a big round of applause once again. For a very wonderful conversation. I am sure. Okay, we have a question? We will just take two questions?
Can you have the mic please? Yes, the mike is coming to you sir. In the scarcity of time we will just be taking two questions. Well sir, I think you are very futuristic. As we see in my when I completed my studies I have seen I never thought that after 25 years I will transfer money through UPI now after 25 years how you see this world so that I mean particularly this question is about what is your opinion on bitcoin and crypto market will it replace the financial transaction about of the world it is right time to invest in bitcoin and crypto crypto market and not please little gl from this so that many people are their youngsters so that students will invest in crypto market hello so I am not an expert in bitcoins and all but just looking at the pattern the way bitcoin market is moving the bit price of bit bitcoin is moving.
Earlier People Used To Say That Bitcoin Is Empty, a Bubble. So I do not agree to that. I think Bitcoin has its own place and now the President of America is also advocating for cryptocurrencies. So I Think Crypto Is Here to Stay. I Think Bitcoin Is Here to Stay. And it's very fluctuating. It's so it's not for the you know for small mane people with small capital and all.
Because 50 60 70% keeps going up and down in it. So one has to be careful. I personally feel that crypto is here to stay. At least Bitcoin I don't know about the other bit other cryptos and all. I Think Bitcoin Is Here to Stay. Thank you so much. Okay, just one last question. Sir one more question. Vijay ji it was really wonderful to have heard you and you are so very sorted as the current scenario is a concern.
I you just said that China use communism for their development the way they are developing how could you relate them I could not really understand that how could communism be a tool they used for their development and how democracy was the tool for not a great development as far as communism is concerned.
So again sir I am not a politician. So let me tell you what I am saying, what ever it is, it is my own thought, I may be wrong in that perception as I said that I am not in politics, but very simple thing sir, in you just take the example what happened to Jackma, right he created a world class empire in the name of Alibaba and just one day before his other company was going for IPO, Sethi ji sitting here you would know more about the data, a day before his IPO was going to happen, the 35 billion dollar IPO of that company was going to happen, he said something about it, the government in the USA, Xi Jinping cancelled his IPO, 35 billion dollars was lost, he did not care and he went underground Jackma for three-four years, then he came in between, somewhere he became a professor, somewhere he came in between, he is doing farming or what is he doing, now he has come back, so what I mean to say is that sir, the Politburo there Four people decide, as I told you, the state has a different agenda, it is a good thing, if there is competition then there is a different agenda, now here any opposition goes and abuses your Prime Minister in the US.
Any opposition, even if your Prime Minister is not good according to you, still you go abroad and tarnish his dignity in the way you do, then it tells you that this is why the situation in other countries might be such that something or the other has started against India inside Australia. Some agenda is being set in motion.
Starting in the US. Turning on in Canada. In many countries, the movement to drive away Indians is underway. Because if you yourself do not understand your motherland or respect your people, then who else is going to respect you? China has taught you that brother, if you live here, eat here, drink here, sleep here and you abuse this, then this will not work for you.
So, it seems to me simple that this is in itself, now you can understand the further matter as to how, so in my opinion, thank you, thank you very much, thank you so much.
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