저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 시장 급락은 매수 기회이며 연말 랠리는 아직 유효하다는 낙관론. 시장 상황: 금요일 급락은 유동성 부족 속 VIX 급등에 따른 투자자 패닉이며, 역사상 네 번째로 큰 VIX 급등이라는 평가를 인용함. 저점은 이번 주말 무렵일 수 있다고 봄. 코로나 및 리스크: 코로나 변이는 불확실하지만 모든 변이에는 만료 시점이 있으며, 플로리다 사례가 이를 보여준다고 언급. 투자자들이 리스크를 줄여 포지션이 쏠려 있어 계절적 강세와 맞물려 랠리가 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 성장주 vs 대형 기술주: 쳇(Chegg), 스티치픽스, 줌, C3.ai 등 성장주의 급락은 구조적으로 좋은 사업이라도 밸류에이션 디레이팅 때문이라고 진단. 2022년에 멀티플이 실적보다 빠르게 확장될 가능성이 큰 곳은 FANG 계열(아마존, 애플, 페이스북/메타, 구글, 넷플릭스)로 지목하며, 이들은 2021년 실적은 늘었으나 멀티플은 압축됐다고 설명. 비트코인·가상자산: 잭 도시의 비트코인 집중은 가상자산에 강세 요인이며, 가상자산은 금융서비스와 기술의 교차점으로 GDP의 절반 가까이를 차지하는 시장에 비해 자본 배분이 부족하다고 봄. 가상자산 프로젝트와 관련 기업 모두 아직 초기 단계라고 주장. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 단기 급락 후 반등 및 연말 랠리 지속을 낙관하며, 2022년에는 FANG 중심 기술주가 주도할 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
where's your mindset right now well uh i think friday was uh a massacre you know for markets because it was a short window not a lot of liquidity and you could see by the panic in the vix you know was the fourth largest ever according to charles bolello uh that that was investor panic and generally in an environment like this berlin expansion i i think you have to buy the dip so i i think markets are very viable here i don't know if today is the bottom but i think the low is sometime this weekend and i think the year-end everything rally is is actually still in play really so you don't even see this uh postponing what would have ordinarily been or what would be a year-end melt-up oh carl i i mean you know it's it's a tr yeah it's a great question because as you know markets uh have a lot of things to worry about and as you know covid continues to be unpredictable but we also know that every variant has had an expiration date i mean we just have to look at florida where cases have virtually disappeared there but they they were in the in the heart of the delta surge over the summer and with this wall of worry and skepticism and especially over the weekend people think that there would be a lot of follow-through today i think people did take a lot of risk off the table and as you know people are off sides at a time when we had a season seasonal strength i think that's the rally still intact tom what do you make of what's happened to some of the i guess riskier stocks of growth names like chegg stitch fix zoom c3ai i mean we talk about uh kind of moderate dips uh in some tech names that maybe you want to buy but then some of these names have had dramatic dramatic you can't even just call them dips they're plunges do you think about the value of their innovation differently do you think about what's a bargain differently uh in this kind of situation uh john that's a great question i mean you know i think one of the magic of tech stocks is you know one is that historically they're all great compounders right because a company really finds in and really shows a lot of strength and dominance in a market and they capture a lot of value because there isn't a lot of capex behind it but that compounding of earnings sometimes gets overexpressed as a multiple expansion and i think a lot of the state-home stocks that you're citing are derating even though they're structurally good businesses if i looked at where tech has a chance for the multiples to actually expand faster than earnings i think it's gonna be the fang complex you know stocks like amazon and apple and facebook and google and you know netflix they've compounded earnings in 2021 but actually saw a multiple compression so i i think those are the names in 2022 that could really power tech hey tom since your bitcoin ball i have to ask you if dorsey is getting ready to focus on what he calls his true passion bitcoin what does that mean for the crypto complex i mean this is a guy who has created two hugely important companies in two very important spaces fintech and social media will he do the same for bitcoin will that give it a leg over ethereum what do you think is it is it bullish for crypto uh yes it's bullish for crypto uh you know one thing to keep in mind is that crypto is the intersection of financial services and technology i mean that's literally sixty percent of the economy i mean really financial services is the other half of gdp so it's a huge market and there isn't enough capital actually allocated towards crypto innovation uh so it takes people like jack dorsey to to really marshall focus and i don't think this space is over invested yet so i think it's still earliest days not only for things like projects like bitcoin or ethereum but really for the amount of crypto equities you know businesses that are built around crypto i think this is still the earliest days
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