저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 애크먼은 경기는 강하지만 인플레이션이 문제이며, 연준이 금리를 4% 이상으로 더 공격적으로 올려야 한다고 본다. 경기 및 소비자 상황 경기 자체는 매우 강하다고 평가. 완전고용 상태이며 임금도 상승 중. 제이미 다이먼 발언을 인용해 JP모건 소비자 부문 연체율이 역사상 가장 낮은 수준이라고 언급. 인플레이션과 연준 인플레이션이 가장 큰 문제이며 쉽게 잡히지 않고 있다고 진단. 6월 75bp 인상 이후 금융여건이 크게 완화됨. 2년물 국채금리가 2.9% 미만이라 시장은 향후 2년간 연준 기준금리가 현재보다 40bp 정도만 높을 것으로 보고 있으며 실질적 긴축이 없다고 해석. 연준 파월이 중립금리 도달을 언급한 것을 비판적으로 평가. 금리 전망 및 리스크 연준은 공격적으로 금리를 올려야 하며, 4% 이상 금리가 향후 12~18개월 이상 유지되어야 인플레를 잡을 수 있다고 주장. 금리가 더 올라갈 가능성이 크며, 시장이 이를 충분히 반영하지 않은 것이 가장 큰 리스크. 재정 정책 코로나 이후 약 2조 달러 규модель 재정부양이 인플레의 연료가 되었다고 비판. 추가 재정부양에는 매우 신중해야 한다고 주장. 반도체법(CHIPS Act) 세부 내용은 읽지 않았다고 언급. 잘 자본화된 반도체 기업들이 500억 달러 이상 지원이 정말 필요한지 의문 제기. 특정 종목·자산 방향 예측 대상 자산별 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언 없음. 주식시장 밸류에이션에 대해서는 '리스크는 금리 상승 미반영'이라는 언급만 있음. 출연자 전망 금리 상승 지속과 인플레 장기화를 전제로 한 긴축 지속 전망 제시.
다듬은 글
what's your current take about the economy itself but also where the stock markets are in terms of Fairly valued or not I think the economy is actually quite strong right now you know the question is where it's going to be in six months and 12 months um but you know we're at full employment there are plenty of jobs available you know wages are going up Howard Hughes uh company we own is opening a uh a kind of food Hall the John George Food Hall uh at the South Street Seaport we've had to hire 600 people and they've been working really hard to do it we've only hired 350 people in the last you know a couple of months if you're looking for a job it's a good one there so I I think the economy itself is very strong I had the opportunity to see Jamie Diamond this weekend I apologize I do I still am a little congested from uh from coven and Jamie talked about number one this is the the lowest default rate period in history uh for the consumer uh part of the bank and that uh their their full spectrum of people that they you know uh support a rich that bank with JP Morgan and Chase and so on uh are in the best position they've ever been so I think we've got you know well capitalized consumers for the most part although I do think lower income people are getting a lot of pressure from higher gas prices higher food prices higher rental rates and I think the biggest problem for the economy is inflation and inflation is roaring its continued to rage and uh unfortunately the the steps taken by the Federal Reserve have not uh been effective you know since uh you know June the first 75 basis point increase Financial conditions have eased enormously stock markets up depending on Market uh you know 10 11 and more um the look at the two-year treasury which is a good indicator of uh where fed funds should be over the next eight quarters is under 2.9 percent and uh with the FED today at you know call it two and a half percent basically the Market's saying that the the FED fed funds will average only 40 basis points above the current uh rate over the next uh two years and that implies really no Financial tightening at all just at the last meeting uh Jerome Powell said that the Fed was now comfortable that it reached 8 sort of neutral level of rates which again a fairly extraordinary statement behind a world with nine percent inflation I think the problem is and so what what would you be advocating the FED do then I think the FED has to be aggressive in raising rates getting to a you know something probably with uh you know High threes four handle checking in and seeing how things are going I think rates are going to have to stay four percent Plus for the foreseeable future 12 18 months or so in order to to kill this inflation they may need to take rates higher and uh I think that's the biggest risk to the markets is that people are not pressing that in uh and I think the uh we need to the FED has to take its foot off the accelerator and when you can borrow money uh based off a uh you know two and a quarter to two and a half percent sofa rate that's the base rate for for borrowers and inflation is nine percent it's going to be persistent certainly in the mid single digits for a long time you borrow as much money as you can and so the current prevailing level of rates is amping up the economy which is why we are having uh the inflation that we are having now with the global factors of course Bill do you like the chips act do you like the uh the other reconciliation bill that Manson is backing does a lot of we think of the FED but a lot of times the FED is just enabling whatever Administration whatever Congress is doing they got to keep rates low they get they're sort of like partners in crime if you will for at least in my view for some of the the profligate spending that goes on do you like either one of those pieces of legislation no I think there's Merit to what you say I think what got us into this mess was an extra couple trillion dollars of stimulus that was intended you know unfortunately when a new regime comes into power they want to do something for the people that you know elected them right and here you know it's very very easy when you control the Congress and it's a new Administration to spend money and uh unfortunately 2 trillion that was spent was the uh you know the extra fuel that caused the extreme inflation and the extreme inflation is actually affecting people who are the by Administration was trying to help I think through that stimulus package but it's got to be very cautious about adding more fiscal stimulus at a time like this the chips act again I haven't read these in detail um but I feel like the chips Industries they've got some very well capitalized very well-run companies do they really need 50 billion I'm sorry whatever the number is 58 billion dollars more than that foreign
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