Tren Griffin, author of "The Complete Investor," shares what he's learned from Charlie Munger

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Trent Griffin이 2016년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 현장에서 Max Flower와 나눈 인터뷰로, 찰리 멍거에게서 얻은 투자 원칙과 본인의 커리어 여정을 소개한다. 핵심은 '큰 실수를 피하는 것'이 성공의 기초라는 멍거식 사고이며, 투자는 쉽지 않고 소수의 중요한 결정을 매우 잘 내리는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 그는 하락 위험은 작고 상승 여력은 큰 긍정적 옵셔널리티(positive optionality) 기회를 기다렸다가, 기회가 오면 빠르고 충분한 자금으로 행동해야 한다고 말한다. 1999~2000년 닷컴 버블 당시 주식이 과열되어 현실감이 없었고, 이를 피하기 위해 버핏 책을 읽으며 멍거의 원칙을 접하게 되었다고 회고한다. 25IQ 웹사이트는 성공한 투자자들을 체계적으로 분석해 공통된 특성과 패턴을 찾는 학술적 작업이며, 성공 투자자들의 방식은 똑같지 않지만 반복되는 테마가 있다고 설명한다. 그의 커리어는 기업가 → 투자자(12년) → 닷컴 버블 붕괴 후 실제 사업 복귀 → 소프트웨어 사업 15년으로 이어졌으며, 소프트웨어가 모든 산업에 스며들고 확장성이 크다는 점이 매력이라고 밝힌다. 종목·지수·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없고, 투자 철학과 커리어에 대한 일반론만 다뤄졌다.

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01. hi my name is Max flower I'm here with Trend Griffin at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting and he's written a book called The Complete investor about Charlie Munger Trent tell us about your inspiration to follow Charlie Munger and what inspired you to write the book well in 1999 stocks were obviously bubbly in 2000 they were even more bubbly and I wanted to find some way to ground myself in reality because it didn't seem real to me seemed crazy and so what I did was I took a vacation I read Warren Buffett for a week and I kept running into this Monger character and the more I read the more I found him to be interesting in the more I used as principles the more I found them to be useful and so he's been an inspiration for me in many ways and what's one thing that you've learned about Monger that you didn't know before that that you really appreciate now well I think the key thing with Charlie is really the best way to be smart is to not to be stupid and one way to do deal with that is is uh just to focus on on making sound decisions but a lot of sound decisions are around things to avoid so by avoiding big mistakes in life you're really a long ways along and in doing well and what uh what's something about Berkshire Hathaway in general and also investing that you like well it's hard and anybody who says it's easy Charlie says is stupid you know if investing was easy everybody would be rich and so what I've learned is is you really want to focus on making a small number of really important decisions um extremely well and so you need to be this this unusual combination of very very patient but also very very aggressive when the time is right there you go and so how have you done that in your personal life well what I look for is is a small number of decisions again they're going to have a big upside and those sorts of decisions tend to have what's called positive optionality which is you want a decision where there's a small downside and a big upside and you need to just sit and sit and sit and wait and then when one comes along you need to act quickly and and with significant amounts of money and if you can do that with discipline you're gonna you're gonna be a good investor and tell us about your inspiration to start up your website 25 IQ which I like a lot and also has the feature 12 things I learned and you cover various investors well what I wanted to do was you know basically it's an academic exercise but I wanted to do an analysis of all these investors uh and do it systematically and go through one by one and look for common characteristics and attributes and by doing that on a in a discipline way week after week I've sort of established a pattern of what makes for a successful investor and so it's it's like many business cases or you're doing doing analysis after analysis and after a while you sort of start start to see the success is never precisely the same but it Rhymes there are certain themes that that reflect success that repeat themselves among these investors and that's probably the most interesting takeaway so in your case you were an investor and then you started advising with uh Microsoft and then you became an employee of Microsoft and now you're a writer what's in the future for you in your career so what happened with me was was I started out as an entrepreneur and working for entrepreneurs and I was in business and then we made enough money that we were investing our own money and so I became an investor for 12 years and then we had the the end of the internet bubble and at that point I realized what really made me happy was being involved in a real business and I think the most interesting business in the world right now is software so my career sort of traveled an arc entrepreneur investor and then went back to basically a new the last stage of my life or the last professional stage of my life which is I just love the software business and so I've been doing that for 15 years now so uh as with a lot of people um one thing leads to another and sort of it was an arc let's put it that way and what is it about the software business that you love um you know I think every business in the country right now is a software business even if you're a railroad you're running software even if you're an oil company you're running software and so I think software is pervasive but also it scales so well and it's so interesting and the people involved are are very smart and it's also very competitive um returns have been great for me personally so um all those things combined make for sort of what Charlie calls the Lollapalooza which is a lot of good things very good well uh Trent I really appreciate your time I encourage you to keep up the great work I look forward to reading more of your posts on your 25 IQ blog and thank you so much okay I appreciate it thank you