저자: earlvdrhede44 · 외국인
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how about for the first time we're going to an apple quarter where it looks like that things are sold through when the stock's not at its 52 we caught what a gift uh yeah got a couple reiterations of apple on friday from morgan stanley and then today on microsoft out of goldman reiterate buy a 400 gym we're gonna be reminded of the reasons we bought these names uh we're sold we sold them i mean you look at microsoft and someone could say i'm not gonna pay 30 times earnings or you could look at someone says the reason why i've been buying this company is it's it keeps beating earnings but that was that david no longer important when the stock's down 60 from its high now we've got a new metric and the metric is i really want to get out ahead of you i mean this is like when you go hey you know bears chasing me i don't know how widely known microsoft was and every every hedge fund was in this name you know somehow underperforming anyway but okay so again are you going to get in at 273.
i don't know jim listen the the performance last year was extraordinary the top line growth for a company that's been around as long as microsoft was was eye popping when you would look at those releases i don't know where we're gonna get this coming uh for the last reported quarter when we get it later this week i agree one would expect it'll be quite strong again but you tell me let's just go back to the fundamentals i don't know where is this thing trading on uh on a 30 times earnings okay um probably deserves that question well that's the problem is you take again i'm playing this devil's advocate line because i don't like selling this for the sake of beating someone else okay so google uh alphabet it probably sells it 20 it's 22 times earnings back out to cash what are you talking about now 19 times earnings now is that expensive the answer is no but you can then carl say who cares about whether it's expensive and the answer is that three months from now from now you'll be carrying a great deal uh because you're looking you know money is not going to come out of the market to 1.2 percent cds it's going to look for situations where the momentums come out and the business is good uh every one of the companies that are up there right now is doing things spending hundreds of hundreds of billions you know 10 well tens of billions of dollars developing new uh programs and we sit there and say well these are just sitting ducks and carl like the sitting duck thing well that those are the specs and those are the companies that came public those are sitting ducks and the fact that no one's come in say and bought a lemonade or bought an upstart uh when i say no one i mean a company that tells me all right be careful there but i'm not gonna sit here and say this is the moment to sell at the because even though they're doing well even though they've got a great yield even though they're gonna have a different quarter i'm not gonna i'm gonna sell it because well everyone else is well there's a good example there's a good example on splunk today uh btig ups to buy target 155 channel checks improving lead us to believe companies turning a corner um we see a few dynamics that could help the name re-rate later in the year specifically the accelerated mix shift to cloud no sense they're not making money and my problem there is that i had doug meredith on multiple times and doug meredith one day disappeared i i don't know the new interim ceo and that i find to be uh because of that i'm more concerned i absolutely like the idea of a turn but here's a good one servicenow okay so servicenow uh servicenow adobe a couple of these but servicenow is now down 200 points from its high okay it sells but it tells it 85 times earnings but it could make the number it that means it's good except for the fact it's got momentum buyers but look at the chart i know david you're not in charge but you're repealing whole moves yeah does that matter i don't know well the answer is is that what is the answer jim the answer is is that you if you liked it at 700 you're going to love it at 500 yes okay yes yes let's take a look at snap if you like snapping 80 or you're going to like it at 30 this morning there's a downgrade from wed bush to neutral by the way they've had an outperform on the stock so take that for what it's worth but i i think what's interesting here is the is the did you mention that is the uh is the thesis which is snap currently has a strong foothold in the 13 to 34 demo and it's all about tick tock the audience is the most similar to snaps which means it puts both snaps engagement and time spent and ad dollars at risk tick tock is a power bite dance obviously the owner of tick tock those numbers continue to soar higher advertising such an important growth component of tick tock putting snap at risk by the way maybe others too i mean there are some who argue short form is really everything that matters for this demographic they're not even going to be watching television no i want any form the apple ads this weekend seemed like that there were people trying to figure out how to put their tick tock together i i look at snap and i said the last quarter was terrific uh i don't know maybe it bottoms in 25.
again i'm stuck with this concept of if you want to buy a stock you should want to buy it when the stock is not 83 where it was but 30 where it is now the last hour that stock could break down to 28 so there's no need to be aggressive but i'm looking at these stocks down from where they were and i'm saying all right those people who bought it that high they're wrong i'm not going to be as wrong as they were i want to do some buying today my chapel trust is buying today i'm forcing myself to buy today we wanted to buy more friday we couldn't why am i doing because that's what i do that's my discipline
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