저자: LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이 영상은 특정 종목·자산에 대한 단기 가격 예측이 아니라 가치투자 원칙과 투자 태도를 설명하는 강의다. 주제: 안전마진(margin of safety) - 미래 현금흐름과 수익은 본질적으로 예측이 어려우므로 충분한 안전마진을 두고 낮은 가격에 매수해야 한다고 강조. - 확률적으로 90% 맞더라도 나머지 10%로 파산에 이를 수 있어, 틀려도 게임에서 퇴출되지 않을 정도의 여유가 필요하다고 봄. 주제: 미스터 마켓(Mr. Market) - 시장은 감정적이고 비합리적으로 행동하는 존재로 비유. - 시장이 자신과 반대로 움직여도 흔들리지 않는 정신적 독립성이 필요하다고 설명. - 다만 군중과 반대로 서는 것은 진화적으로 본능에 거스르는 일이라 매우 어렵다고 언급. 주제: 장기 보유와 인내 - 훌륭한 장기 투자자의 핵심은 아무것도 하지 않고 기다리는 인내라고 강조. - 잘못된 매매(안전마진 없는 매매)가 가장 큰 손실을 부른다는 취지. 주제: 집중과 분산 - 확신이 매우 높은 극소수의 기회는 드물게 나타나며, 그때는 분산보다 집중이 필요하다고 봄. - 다만 예측이 틀릴 가능성 때문에 일부 분산도 병행하는 것이 바람직하다는 입장. - 투자의 본질은 기회비용이며, 대안과 비교해 판단한다고 설명. 언급 종목·자산: 없음(특정 종목 방향 예측 발언 없음). 조건/리스크: 안전마진 부족, 감정적 대응, 과도한 매매가 주요 리스크로 제시됨. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 시장 전망 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
this is Sandeep Anand welcome to San compounding let me take you to the world of investing in China and introduce you to a great fund manager and investor his name is Lee Liu he runs Himalaya capital he is a founder since 1997 he has been running Himalaya capital for 21 years and been quite successful in doing that and he is a Columbia Columbia School alumni and a stance value investing follower of Benjamin Graham principles he has managed Charlie Munger's funds for 15 years or so now and has been quite successful in doing that leader has also authored couple of books and he has seen through the transformational rise of China to the super power now take a look at few investing principles from Li Lu in this video you have to read a particular future discounted cash flow earnings and the future is inherently difficult to predict and therefore you want to leave yourself a margin of safety or you could be right but because of future distribution opportunity statistic possibilities say you'll bet on something that it's 90% of the chances it could be right then the 10% can occur so all of a sudden become a hundred percent so you want to leave enough of a margin of safety want to buy at a low enough of a price even if all the editors events occurred against you in the future you will still be in the game it doesn't mean you won't lose - it just means that you cannot lose so much you'll be out of the game because it's really a long game it complains over the life anybody's career and so you want to be really in the game so I hope with a long haul and the third concept is mr.
market to figure out a frame of mind you think of it when the market is begins - you look at it as a neurotic mr. market it's a pro for emotional and irrational behaviors so those are the three basic concept at a heart of it is obviously this this bargain idea in the manual investing you have to have this trim of a minder that if you did your work correctly or the market against you it should be comfortable standing alone and this is the concept behind mr.
market but that's really very difficult to do it is a very unnatural thing to do what the whole market is the kids deal when everybody else really think you were stupid and neurotic and wrong and you know how tend to think everybody else is in mr. market irrational neurotic that is very very unnatural place to do it was the borderlines of a self delusion that's probably most people feel about you at the time you look quite ridiculous and there it uncomfortable in fact our very evolution requires a certain deal of conformity think about over over the millions of the years of evolutionary past our ancestors our animal predecessors you know basically counting groups and he won it was a left out and disagree with everybody else in the room they are easily that one is now the one to survive so all the genes that have to survive in the past are the ones intend to extreme degree of conformity and conformity also works with marrow well as for human society because we are at the end at the heart is social animals we need to that fastens of Louisville conformity and sympathy compassion to bring the society and peace and live together so you need a certain mutated genes in a sense to be utterly comfortable to stand alone screaming I have to my hope point is you don't have to swing a lot one of the key of a success for being a long term successful investor is you have to endure a long term time in which to do nothing you don't have to do a lot in order to be fabulously rich in the prosperous there's the good thing about to this game you study all the time but you don't have to do anything and every time you do when you don't have an hour mark no safety you can came out really losing and that's really much worse than doing nothing but every time you do do something if you have large enough of margin of safety you're upside is also become huge there are many many examples I wouldn't have time to go into it and in which you will you turn when you turn out to be right are the upside is just enormous it could really surprise your wildest dreams and you want to wait for those to come from all sources I don't have a particular rule where'd it come from if you atma cure is mind if you study all the time interesting idea how would it be surprised you can really find a lot of great ideas just autumn reading publicly available information it is judging what is a good opportunity that is a really difficult well well you always have to have some kind of it there's a diversification because a you could be wrong even right you're banging on statistic in other words the future is essentially a distribution of all probabilities say okay see you have a 90 percent of conviction and you're right and that event is 92 percent change of happened and so you don't want to that 10 percent to get you out of the game so you do need to diversification on the other head that recognizing is extremely rare to find no-brainer create opportunities a truly rare in fact you have to wait for a long time but from that fat fish to come to you so when that happens you certainly do not on a diversify away the opportunity and you have been waiting patient for a long time to discover first up we really inferior other opportunities the investment is essentially is the opportunity cost so one other alternative have to Rena just by itself but comparative is the way already have and so when you make that comparison you tend not to really diversify too much you would a fine and feel very very good ones that have a very high conviction and might arise and so yes you do a little bit both
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