저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 정부가 재정 파탄을 막기 위해 금 보유를 불법화하고 저가 강제 매입 후 금값을 재평가하는 자산 몰수 시나리오를 제시한다. 정부 규모가 경제의 50%에 달해 구조적 개혁은 불가능하며 붕괴(crash)만이 해법이라고 주장한다. 중앙은행의 금리 조작과 CPI 축소 발표로 실질 물가는 연 7~12%라 주장하고, AI 설비투자 붐이 19세기 철도 버블과 맞먹으며 붕괴 시 대공황이 올 것이라 전망한다. 세계 부채/GDP는 200년 내 최고이며 상업용 부동산은 70~80% 하락했고 주거용도 유사한 하락이 올 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
In the case of gold, one problem I foresee is that the governments could come and say that that gold holdings are illegal, that you have to tender your gold. They they will pay you some money. Say today they could say, "Okay, we buy all the gold at 4,400 or 4,500 and they can borrow they can print that money to buy it from you." You understand?
It's not that they suffer it. They can do that and then they can revalue the gold to 45,000 or 100,000 or a million and there lots of things that the government can do. They can also take your bitcoins away or they can take your house away. I mean, if they could lock you in during COVID for no reason.
For no reason. Escalating sovereign debt and unrestrained fiat currency creation are driving Western fiscal policy toward a severe breaking point. When national deficits become mathematically unpayable, governing authorities inevitably target private capital to keep bloated state balance sheets solvent.
Mark Fabber, a Swiss contrarian investor and editor of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom report, warns that desperate administrative regimes will soon use aggressive statutory powers to confiscate wealth. He predicts emergency legislation will outlaw private gold ownership, forcing citizens to tender their bullion at an arbitrary fiat price of $4,400 or $4500 per ounce.
Once acquired with newly printed currency, governments could instantly revalue physical gold reserves to $45,000, $100,000, or even $1 million per ounce to erase balance sheet obligations overnight. He foresees decentralized holdings like Bitcoin and private real estate facing similar expropriation and recommends allocating capital across multiple sovereign jurisdictionf I look at Western governments, and I'm not singling out the US, the others are in a similar situation.
The solution, the long-term solution to the problems that we're facing now in terms of economic growth and stagnating standards of living in the West could be solved by significantly reducing the government. Say the government is 50% of the economy. We could take it down to 25%. But the voters, the electorate, they wouldn't like that because people, they look at the subsidies they get and they don't want to pay more tax, but they want to get more benefits.
And so how do you go to pension pensioners and tell them from now on your pension is 30% less than before? How do you get elected with that view? And so I believe the only way to fix the system is not through voluntary government action but through a crisis that essentially collapses the system and collapses the debt debts that exist in the system.
And that transition is like a major operation that takes place in a in a body that was subject to an accident or something. Yes, I'd say we need an accident to happen to clean the system. Otherwise, it's not going to get cleaned and it's going to get worse because the government's reaction to any problem is not to spend less to spend more and to gain more influence into the system.
And at the end, you have a planning economy like under communism where maybe even the properties that you own are expropriated that is taken away from you can happen in many ways. You can save on homes. You can increase house taxes, home taxes to such an extent that nobody can afford to live in a home.
You understand? Then you have to go into say a a a governmentowned department that is subsidized by the government and that will then reduce your standard of living because these buildings are usually not very well maintained. And then end anyway we we may move away from the market economy from the capitalistic system into more of a either very socialist system communism or into a fascist system.
Trump if you look at really his action and his behavior in business is essentially a prime example of a fascist you know Alam Musolini to influence business and government allocates because the government is 50% of the economy they have a huge power how to allocate tax revenues to this company or that company or to this person who gives you contributions or to that person the governments will will the first reaction will be to print more money that's why I think that the stock market is going up and that gold is relatively strong because uh the printing of money will be favorable for these assets but uh in the case of gold one problem I foresee is that the governments could come and say that that gold holdings are illegal that you have to tender your gold they they will pay you some money.
Say today they could say, "Okay, we buy all the gold at 4,400 or 4,500 and they can borrow, they can print that money to buy it from you." You understand? It's not that they suffer it. They can do that and then they can revalue the gold to 45,000 or 100,000 or a million. And there lots of things that the government can do.
They can also take your bitcoins away or they can take your house away. I mean, if they could lock you in during [clears throat] COVID for no reason. For no reason, you have to have some money in stocks, some in real estate, some in precious metals and what? some in books and some in paintings and then then and you need to have small denominations and two you this is very important the geographical uh diversification of your assets some assets maybe in the US and you want to own some assets in Europe or in Russia or in China or in Australia maybe not all will survive but some may survive
public administration now consumes fully 50% % of western economic output, severely choking private enterprise and overall productivity. Reducing this footprint to a sustainable 25% remains politically impossible because the voting electorate demands continuous subsidies while rejecting higher taxes or reduced pension payouts.
Consequently, genuine fiscal reform cannot occur through voluntary political channels. The current trajectory can only be resolved through a severe systemic crash, a traumatic economic accident capable of wiping out unpayable liabilities and clearing toxic leverage. Without this forced reset, Western governance is drifting steadily toward a planned command structure resembling communism or authoritarian fascism.
Municipalities will predictably raise property taxes to confiscatory thresholds, making private home ownership economically impossible and forcing families into poorly maintained state subsidized tenement apartments. Living standards will permanently degrade as bureaucratic management overrides free market competition.
Now, let's get back to the interview. The bond vigilantes are to some extent back. But you you understand in an environment of money printing you you can have an influence on the pricing of bonds in the sense that if you throw money at the system the money goes through the banks into the various financial institutions including pension funds and insurance companies and so forth.
And in their laws that say they have to buy or own a certain composition or allocation of assets, say 30% in bonds and 30% in stocks or whatever. But the fact that they actually have to buy bonds keeps the market supported. And when you when you have a bonds, the bond say we look at the 10year bond or 30-year a 10-year bond is say at 5% for argument sake.
It's now today around 4.7%. But if the government through the central bank puts down the fed fund rate to 3% or 2%. Then I as a bond buyer of the alternative cash I then get 2% interest or I take the risk and I buy a 10 years treasury at 4.7%. You understand the through the central bank the government can influence the bond market not entirely.
If you're the central bank at the moment in the US and you cut the fat fund rate to 1% then I as an investor I say okay I can put my money the $10 million on 1% or the $10 million at say 4.7% then I have an incentive to buy bonds. Yeah, the long-term bonds are but but and I can I can talk I can massage the CPI figures.
I can tell the people of CPI inflation is 3%. And other economists they calculated that say 7 to 12% peranom. You understand say the bubble in um in the dotcom sector was important but it didn't affect the global economy dramatically. It was it caused some damage when it burst. But what we need to look at is the capital spending, the investments into the object of speculation as a percentage of the global economy.
And at the present time, the investments in AI and AI related stuff is comparable to the investments in railroads in the 19th century in terms of size. is a different matter and uh I don't want to get involved in the discussion what is so different but in size it is very important the most important capital spending boom in the world since the railroads and canal construction in the 19th century and when this bubble burst the capital spending will contract obviously and the financial market will contract in other words the valu valuations will come down and both the contraction in capital spending and in the financial market will cause I believe essentially a depression.
Fair enough. That's a very good point uh because you especially I'm talking about the depression especially because never before has the world been as indebted as it is now. In others, if we look at the last 200 years of economic development in the world, never has the world had so many debts as a percent of GDP than it has now.
I would also argue, you know, the docom bubble occurred when commodity prices were depressed and when housing was depressed. The housing market is depressed in terms of volume, in terms of sales, but not in terms of prices. Prices in most uh cities in America are much higher than they were at the previous peak in 2007 and from that level we declined.
Number two, we have an example that money printing doesn't always help. uh you look at commercial properties in the US a lot of commercial properties are down 70 80% in value and that can happen to residential homes so if uh the the household sector the bulk of people's money the middle class and lower classes is in their homes they don't own large stock portfolios the rich people like you and me and so forth we own stock portfolios but ordinary people around the world they don't own stock portfolios so their wealth is tied to the real estate market and when the real estate market goes down stock market goes down and there's a contraction in capital spending in AI related investments then you have a global contraction plus we have the pressure of having leaders plus we have the pleasure of having leaders who think that they can solve problems with wars
that I have to say is a clone show. Hard. It would have been hard to imagine for anyone that someone goes to war in Iran for essentially no reason. For no reason. Central banks exert immense distortionary control over sovereign bond markets, suppressing cash deposit returns and forcing institutional capital into long-term treasury debt.
At the same time, official statistical agencies massage consumer price data to present a benign 3% inflation rate while actual living costs surge between 7 and 12% annually. This ongoing liquidity distortion has catalyzed an unprecedented capital expenditure boom in artificial intelligence rivaling the 19th century mania surrounding railroads and canals.
Once this massive speculative wave breaks, corporate infrastructure spending will contract violently, dragging broader equity valuations downward. With global debt to GDP sitting at its highest level in 200 years, this contraction will trigger a severe protracted global depression. While commercial real estate values have already plunged 70 to 80%, residential property faces comparable destruction in value.
Because middle-class households hold the bulk of their net worth in residential equity rather than equities, collapsing home prices will decimate workingclass wealth. Meanwhile, political leaders attempt to distract from structural insolveny by entangling nations in irrational foreign military conflic.
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