'We didn't learn anything' — Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says - financial crisis

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결론: 드러켄밀러는 다음 금융위기가 지난번보다 더 심각할 수 있으며, 긴축이 누적되며 시장 붕괴 위험이 크다고 경고한다. 금융위기 전망: 10년간의 저금리 장세가 끝나고 긴축이 진행되면 투자자들이 큰 충격을 받을 수 있다. 과도한 위험 감수와 레버리지가 과거 위기 원인이었고, 현재도 유사한 조건이 있다. 어느 금리 인상이 촉발점이 될지는 알 수 없다. 시장 평가: 밸류에이션이 역사적 고점 수준이고 마진도 사상 최고 수준이라 주식 시장에 우려가 크다. 상반기는 괜찮아도 7월 이후 대차대조표 축소가 주식에 도전이 될 것으로 본다. 다만 본인은 수개월째 틀려왔다고 인정한다. 알고리즘 거래: 알고리즘 트레이딩이 시장의 리듬을 없애 예측이 어려워졌고, 표준편차 모델에 따른 역방향 대량 매매가 추세에 맞서는 움직임을 만든다고 지적한다. 금리 정책: 가능한 한 매 회의마다 금리를 인상하고 싶지만, 심각한 시장 붕괴가 생기면 물러서겠다고 말한다. 정상화를 늦추면 나중에 더 큰 문제가 되고, 지금 정상화해도 4~5년 전보다 문제가 크다고 본다. 베팅 방식: 대형 집중 베팅은 24시간 거래되는 유동성 높은 시장, 주로 채권과 통화 시장에서 한다. 사이클 초기(1~2이닝)에 진입하고 3~5이닝에는 추격하지 않는다. 연속 손실 중에는 큰 베팅을 할 자격이 없다고 본다. 무역·지정학: 트럼프의 미국 은행 시스템과 제재 활용은 글로벌 무역 체계에 가장 파괴적이며, 캐나다·유럽에 대한 사용은 이란·러시아 제재와 다를 바 없다고 비판한다. 미국이 '좋은 나라'라는 신뢰가 훼손될 위험을 우려한다. 리스크: 긴축 장기화와 레버리지 누적이 글로벌 메ltdown으로 이어질 수 있다는 점이 핵심 리스크다. 출연자 전망: 드러켄밀러 본인이 약세 편향(bearish bias)을 밝히며, 금융위기 가능성을 높게 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we didn't learn anything billionaire investor Stanley drag crackin Miller says the next financial crisis could be worse than the last and lays out how it how it might happen who formerly managed money for George Soros George Soros read has owned a hedge fund and now oversees a family office as conditions are ripe for a financial crisis that could put the last one to shame in a smart they have infected financial markets and led to exorbitant pocket of death all around the world more than anything he is worried about the reckoning that's bound to transpire as global Central Bank make boring more expensive the former led lead manager of George Sarris Quantum Fund directional Miller Miller last oversaw 12 billion as chairman and president of dr.

02. Ian's capital management he now manages his own wealth at the family office the crooks of drunken Miller argument is that after a dagger of easy decade of easy landing investors worldwide will be shaken to the core by tighter monetary conditions was the endless supply of cheap money that flooded global markets start to dry up all bets will be off and a market collapse will be in order with the monetary tightening we're kind of at that stage of the cycle where bombs are going off my assumption is one of these hikes I don't know which one is going to trigger this thing ultimately this toxic combination of factors could end up generating a global meltdown that puts the one from a decade ago to shame after all the last instance was driven by excessive risk-taking an unsustainable amount of leverage and wouldn't you know it in these similar circumstances exist now and creatively you can make a kid's that we are going to have a financial crisis bigger than the last one because all the did was triple down on war in my opinion costed he said we simply learned something from every crisis and this one we didn't learn anything if you are considering brushing off drug and Miller's warning consider has nearly unparalleled parallel track record over the past thirty years during that period he earned thirty percent about compounded annual returns and never experienced a down year and one twenty quarter's he is only being down in five of them I have a bearish bias it kind of had the scenario that the first half would be fine but then by July I guess you'd start to discount the shrinking of the balance sheet I I just didn't see how the rate of change would not be a challenge for equities other than Peas and that's because margin are all at our all at an all-time record we have at the top of the valuation on my measures to look except against interest rate and I'd lived for two or three months I've been dead wrong these algos have taken all the rhythm out of the market and have become extremely confusing to me and what you take away price action versus notes from someone who's used protection knew that's a major disciplinary tool for 35 years tough it's become very tough I don't know where it's all going a lot of these alcohols apparently are based on standard deviation model suggests when you would think you're supposed to pile on and left off their model must tell them because you're three standard deviations from what you're supposed to be they come in with this massive program that go against the beginning of the trend I would raise rates every meeting as long as I could and the minute you guard substantial disruption I've worked back off we have this massive death problem if we don't normally is going to accelerate and cause a bigger problem down the road if we do normalize we are going to have a problem and unfortunately we are going to have a much bigger problem than we would have if we have normalized four or five years ago there's a philosophy on making large concentrated bets as the disclaimer if you are going to make a bed like that it's it has to be in a very liquid market even better if it's a liquid market that trades 24 hours a day so most of those beds for me invariably would end we end up being in the bone and currency markets because I could change my mind I like to buy not in the zeros innings and maybe not in the first inning but no later than the second inning I don't really want to pile on in the third or fourth or fifth inning one of my most important job as a money manager was to understand whether I was harder cord life goes in the streaks and life and like a hitter in basketball sometimes a money manager seeing the ball and sometimes they're not in my opinion when you record you could be trying for Barnes you should shouldn't be swinging for the fences you have got to get back into a rhythm that's pretty much how I operated if I was down I had not earned the right to play big probably the most destructive thing destructive thing Trump has done in the global trading system is figured out how powerful of weapon the US banking system is and how powerful sanctions are yes you should use this happen once in a while but when you are when you start just shooting it all over the place and you are now shooting it at Canada Europe here or there that's not a lot of a lot different than shooting at Iran or Russia he's like a little kid that found his this water gun and he is just running around going all over the place with it and the biggest danger I see is we lose that that truth that America is good