저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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달러 약세와 금 강세가 지속되고 인플레이션은 재가속될 것이며, 연준은 경기 둔화 때문에 긴축을 끝낼 수 있으나 이는 인플레 하락이 아닌 경기 악화에 따른 것이라는 주장. 핵심 주장: 시장은 연착륙(골디락스)을 기대하지만 실제로는 인플레가 강하게 나타나고 경기는 시장 예상보다 훨씬 더 약화될 것. 달러·금 흐름: 달러지수가 전일 대비 1%p 하락해 101 선 근처 101.08로 마감, 연중 저점이자 작년 4월 이후 최저. 금은 1950달러대 마감으로 연중 신고가. 금리: 10년물 금리는 3.4% 아래, 30년물은 3.5% 아래로 하락. 채권 강세 흐름. 금 전망: 금 랠리는 지속 가능하며 가속될 것으로 봄(상승 예측). 기술주·암호화폐: 최근 상승은 지속 불가능한 헤드페이크/데드캣 바운스로 보며 곧 반전될 것으로 봄(하락 예측). 인플레이션 전망: 원자재가격이 달러 약세를 계기로 다시 신고가를 향하면 인플레 공포가 재부각되고, 연준은 경기·고용 악화를 우려해 인플레 억제에 소극적일 것. 원자재: 원유 등 원자재 가격 하락은 일시적이며 이미 반등 중이라고 봄. 정책 비판: 연준의 2% 물가목표와 '물가 안정' 정의를 비판하며, 물가 하락 구간이 필요하다고 주장. 정부 지출과 통화 증발이 인플레의 원인이며 책임은 정부와 연준에 있다고 지적. 소비·신용: 가계 저축률은 사상 최저, 신용카드 부채는 사상 최고로 실질적 인플레 억제 진전은 없다고 평가. 결론: 2023년이 역대 최악의 해 중 하나, 어쩌면 최악의 해가 될 수 있다고 전망.
다듬은 글
I think Traders are looking at the softening economic data and the pullback in some of the inflation measures that we've had in recent months and they think that the FED is either gun hiking now even though pal indicated that a couple of more hikes are coming but again these are 25 basis point hikes so maybe at the most the FED is talking about bringing rates up to five and a quarter maybe five and a half Max but I think the markets believe that the FED may not in fact get that high because they believe a the economy is weakening probably more than the FED acknowledges but also they believe that inflation is going to be coming down even faster than the FED pretends but the reality is inflation is not going to weaken it's going to strengthen but the economy is not only going to weaken but weaken much more than than the markets expect so the markets May in fact be right that the FED stops hiking but not because inflation comes down but because the economy comes down or because employment comes down and unemployment goes up but as of now everybody thinks everything is great it's a Goldilocks scenario people are looking for a soft Landing where the economy weakens just enough to bring down inflation but not enough to bring down corporate earnings and you're getting this rally in everything but I think the most significant action is in the foreign exchange markets and in the gold market the dollar tank the dollar Index fell a full percentage point we almost cracked the 101 handle we closed at 101 spot 08.
this is a new low for the year in fact this is the lowest the dollar Index has traded since April of last year as the dollar went down gold went up we closed just above 1950 an ounce this is also a new high on the year for gold and it's the highest price goal has traded again since April of last year we also had a rise in bonds a fall in bond yields in fact the yield on the 10-year is now back below 3.4 and the yield on the 30-year is below 3.5 and a half for example I believe the rally in gold is not only sustainable but it will accelerate but what we're seeing in tech stocks for example or cryptocurrencies is not sustainable these are head fakes dead cat bounces and at some point soon I think we're going to see a reversal as markets become very disappointed in that reality doesn't match their fantasy especially when it comes to inflation in fact one of the keys to why inflation is going to be so much stronger than people think is because the dollar is going to be so much weaker than everybody thinks because the weakness in the dollar is what's going to be the Catalyst for another explosive move up in commodity prices and it's the decline in commodity prices that is helping to keep down goods prices which is why everybody is so convinced that we've seen the worst of inflation and it's headed lower but as Commodities start to make new highs when the dollar makes new lows that's going to throw cold water on that theory and people are once again going to be afraid of higher inflation but I think the FED is going to be afraid to fight it because it's afraid of what that fight might do to a much weaker economy and much weaker labor market than what the FED now expects where the U.S government spends money it doesn't have and then the FED prints the money for the government to spend that is why we have inflation so if inflation is causing an economic hardship and if the government and the FED cause inflation then it's the government and the Federal Reserve that are responsible for that hardship of course Powell will never accept responsibility for the pain that he is helping to inflict but it's the fed and the government that are the reason that so many Americans are suffering this hardship inflation is a tax it is how we are paying for government and so if funding government is creating a hardship for the people who are on the hook for the 10 yeah well it's the government that's to blame why does the FED insist on two percent inflation because price stability means no inflation stable prices don't go up every year by two percent stable prices remain the same that's what stability means there's no change things are stable how does it want stable prices he wants prices to go up two percent a year and he wants to pretend that a steady two percent annual increase constitutes stability it does not but also if Powell thinks that price stability as defined by two percent inflation is so important why is his goal simply to bring inflation back to two percent after all we've had so many years now where inflation is way above two percent why wouldn't pal be targeting a lower rate of inflation than two percent or maybe even falling prices because if we want to get the average rate of inflation down to two percent given how much inflation we had in 2021 2022 how much we're on track to get in 2023 in order to bring the average back down to two percent we need to have some years where it's way below two percent in fact it would really help if we had some years where prices fell that would be a big relief but for some reason Powell is against that he doesn't want to reverse any of the price increases he just wants to make sure that price increases continue just at a slower rate than the rate that they've been rising in the past so in other words if you think prices are too high expect no relief from the FED all the FED is going to do is increase them at a slower rate but of course it's not even going to accomplish that in reality the rate's going to increase because in order to really make progress on inflation fighting pal would have to change consumer Behavior we would have to have an increase in personal savings and a decrease in consumption spending we're not seeing that at all credit card debt is at an all-time high savings are at an all-time low households are spending everything they earn and then some and then of course you have all this government spending so we haven't made any real progress in fighting inflation it only appears that way if you're focusing on the effects of inflation which are prices rather than inflation itself which is the expansion of the supply of money and credit and that continues even if money supply growth has slowed credit growth has not but you have to remember that all this better than expected news on inflation is transitory so it wasn't the increase in inflation that was transitory that's permanent what is transitory is this slight decrease that we're enjoying now and again prices are still going up they're just not going up as fast as they were but all of that is temporary because the reason that we saw a decline in the rate of increase in prices was because we got a correction in Commodities in particular oil prices we've also got a decline in longer term interest rates that is affected mortgage rates and probably other debt payments that are being made that is helping to reduce somewhat the rate of increase in costs that businesses are experiencing but all these factors are temporary commodity prices have already really reversed their decline they're on the upswing and in fact one of the reasons that we got the big drop in commodity prices was the strength of the dollar but the strength of the dollar completely reversed in the fourth quarter of 2022 and that weakness is continued in the first quarter of 2023 and looks like it's going to continue not just for the remainder of the quarter but for the ballast of the year I still think that 2023 could end up being one of the worst years ever and maybe the worst year ever
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