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Cuban uh said that he's now dumped or sold all of his Bitcoin uh given that he don't no longer believes it's acting as a hedge uh against inflation uh or anything else. Argues gold has proven to be a uh a better a better bet and and that Bitcoin is not acted the way it should if it's supposed to be digital gold.
What say you? Well, um you know, on the one hand, I think Mark is right. Crypto's been disappointing because crypto should move with you know, equity markets and it should be rallying with software. Software's really started to rally big and crypto hasn't moved. Um so, I think there are what what I call quote rage quitting, people selling here as if something is wrong.
I mean, one, I think that's what always happens at the end of crypto winter. You know, if someone asked me, is the thesis for Bitcoin or Ethereum broken? You know, it's absolutely not because one, the more work we do and we're hearing it from founders like Palantir, Bitcoin and Ethereum are really the future of money because mass and computer computing energy, however Elon puts it, really are what's scarce and you're going to need to control agent systems.
And as age AI systems evolve, right? We're now talking about using commerce and operating websites, you need decentralized identity and verification. That's really what crypto does. And we know Wall Street wants to go towards tokenization. It's a vast improvement in efficiency of the of actually how money moves and it's an innovation.
Well, that only happens on Bitcoin and Ethereum and other smart contracts. So, the future isn't changed, but the spotlight today is of course on semis, memory, starting on software, but as as people focus downstream into the future, that's really I think when the bid comes for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Partly agree with Tom Lee there about this kind of crypto trade is a little bit further out than right now.
Um had a good conversation with Arthur Hayes this morning and one thing that we spoke about was some catalysts that may dampen, not destroy the AI trade and spotlight. Uh very interesting take that I'll save for the interview that he has. But you will get a shift back towards the cryptocurrency space.
Now whether that will be Bitcoin and Ethereum which I don't personally believe in as far as mass scale is concerned for the usage of distributed ledger technology is still to be seen. And Tom Lee brought up a number of points there one of which was that software here we have a State Street Spider S&P software and service ETF.
So this is in the Japanese candlesticks. You can see Bitcoin that has moved pretty much perfectly in sync with it up until recently. Now that suggests something internal is perhaps happening with Bitcoin. And then it just isn't the narrative. And if there's any kind of issue with the top half of the K and what's driving markets, I think you still see this correlation ring true to the downside just not the upside.
But I do agree with Tom Lee's statement that crypto is a further down the line trade. And I think for me my personal positioning and the group that I have is positioning is one more low. We've got certain targets for all coins that we're zealous on and then we'll look to really take this thing indefinitely into the future as these digital commodities.
He also spoke about gold. So we'll come back to this because gold has overtaken US government bonds as the world's top reserve asset. The shift reflects an attempt by many countries to seek alternatives to the US dollar the world's de facto reserve currency. This is very interesting. And we'll come back to this.
And Bitcoin you know, we've always prophesied that Bitcoin dominance is going to get down to about 20%. 21% is where we've got a target for if certain things play out. I think that is very much what you're looking at moving forwards. So yeah. Bitcoin the problem with it is when people stop believing in it, the usage and utility just is not there.
I also don't think Ethereum, personally, is the one. Sticking on crypto news, this is from the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who's been very supportive of crypto. In fact, they need to um adopt crypto to help with the US debt problem and the US dollar problem, which is becoming more evident. Um this is what he has to say.
He says, "While Iran's economy is in freefall, the regime has chosen to co-opt digital asset technology for its own corrupt agenda, including evading sanctions and transferring wealth out of the country. Iran's current economic chaos is proof that the President of the United States' maximum pressure campaign has been a success.
As promised, the Treasury will continue to follow the money in support of economic fury, whether it is through the banking system or through digital assets to prevent the regime from developing a nuclear weapon. Uh today, the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control designated Nobitex, Iran's largest um digital assets exchange, along with three other Iranian digital assets exchanges as part of economic fury, the Trump administration's efforts to eliminate the threat uh proposed by the Iranian regime.
So, it's going to be interesting to see how this all unfolds. Talking about Iran and the geopolitical situation, which I can see flaring up, personally, and then the reaction to that, maybe there'll be an event, you know, maybe as Arthur was suggesting, there'll be some sort of a shift onto uh taxes on AI or or whatever it may be.
We'll see. Um not in Trump's character, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Trump says Iran agreed to not have nuclear weapons, but they can change their minds. Iran has already agreed it will not have nuclear weapons according to US President Donald Trump in a wide-ranging interview with the New York Post.
Pod Force One podcast, the president discussed the state of the conflict in the Middle East. Yes, I can see this escalating personally. I think they're getting desperate. World oil inventories are falling at a record pace and are on set or on track, I think by August to get down to that operational floor level.
This is the minimum level required to keep pipelines functioning and refineries operating. You're you're you're going to get something over this summer that I think is going to impact markets in a negative way. I think the dollar and we'll look at that is potentially setting up for this. This is another one.
Based on current trends, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would reach operational minimum levels around August. The drawdown pace is surpassing what we've seen during the SPR release authorized by the Biden administration. Um we'll get onto this in just a second. But yeah, I I I I I still think guys that you are and I'm not popular for saying this, going to have disorder in the oil markets personally.
Uh I think Brent looks more obvious obvious to me. You know, if this sort of holds here you could be looking at $150 and a barrel for oil. And I think this is because this situation continues. Eventually this weighs on markets and the stock market and certainly the top half which is seeing all sorts of interesting things.
This is Google is now selling $80 billion of its own stock to fund AI CapEx. Ending a decade of buybacks, so you're still going to see that growth in in AI continuing. You might see the stock market reality-ize, is that a real word? Come back to reality a little bit over this. But this is interesting.
You're seeing all kinds of this stuff. It just shows the build-out scale and agenda and that it's going to continue, but the financials are going to be interesting. And talking about some broader world news and crypto's relevant here, gold has overtaken the US government bonds as a world's top reserve currency asset.
The shift reflects an attempt by many countries to seek alternatives to the US dollar, the world's de facto reserve currency. XRP potentially plays an interesting news or or or or role could could play an interesting role, but then again, it's a US company that's kind of behind it. So, will they allow that?
Well, maybe if the alternative is no control, they'll take some control by having its um residing company who's really been in charge of pushing and propagating it and the whole is the biggest reserve of it. You know, maybe they'll I mean, this is this is theory for now. Uh sort of take that option over no um uh influence.
Here we have breaking. The US dollar gold has now overtaken US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. Now, I think this has been the state of play for a little while, but yes, and this is all because you're seeing this move away from the kind of dollar hegemony. Um And certainly people are least looking for alternatives just to cover the crypto markets.
Everything that we said was going to play out is, whether that's Bitcoin and the bear flag. You'll get 50k, in my opinion. [clears throat] And I think that's going to happen within this year. Um Ethereum, you'll get $1,200, personally I believe. Total two, you're looking at 1.7 trillion. USDT dom still needs to get up to this target here.
Um so on and so forth. You know, the the the the the crypto space I still think has a a kind of major leg below it. Um it's sad the state of crypto right now. I mean, I'm seeing Cardano get eaten alive by Open Golf, which I kind of saw on Polkadot. I think that's going to continue. Um I think AI build-out's going to continue until it, you know, is forced not to.
That's my opinion. AI crypto's looking very interesting right now. Um, that's really it for me. The yield market is also to be watched. I think Kevin Hassett, uh, not Kevin Hassett, sorry. Kevin Walsh just uh, brought somebody onto his team that is contrary to what's suggested. Price stability is going to be the mandate and I actually think you're going to get higher interest rates, not lower interest rates across the board on the back end of this situation.
Um, yeah. The stock market and AI might be a bit of a sacrificial lamb. Um, with maybe a blow off top caused by SpaceX's IPO um, going into the sort of, uh, midterms. That's it for me. I'm going to love and leave you. Thanks everybody for watching. See you all in the next daily market update tomorrow. Bye.
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