저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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결론: 드러큰밀러는 비트코인을 금의 대체 가치저장 수단으로 긍정 평가하며 매수 의향을 밝혔지만, 이더리움은 경쟁 우위가 불확실하다고 보고 도지코인은 무시하는 입장이다. 배경: 과거 비트코인을 '해결책을 찾는 문제'라고 폄하했으나, 코로나 CARES법과 파월 의장의 연준 행보를 보고 중앙은행 신뢰 문제를 비트코인이 해결한다고 입장을 바꿨다. 매수 경위: 약 6,200달러 부근에서 2,000만 달러어치를 샀으나 2주가 걸렸고, 이후 가격이 36,000달러까지 오르자 '멍청하게' 매수를 멈췄다고 회상. 일부 차익 실현 후 미공개 수량의 비트코인을 보유 중이다. 86% 보유자 발언: 1만7천달러에서 3천달러로 하락 때 보유자 86%가 매도하지 않았다는 사실이 신앙적 보유자의 존재를 보여준다고 평가했다. 비트코인 전망: 공급이 유한하고 브랜드가 확립되어 가치저장 수단으로서 금과 함께 유리하며, 금의 고베타 대체재로 보고 있다. 파월의 행보가 계속되면 상승 요인이 된다는 취지. 이더리움 전망: 스마트 계약 플랫폼으로서의 장점은 인정하지만, 페이스북 이전 마이스페이스나 구글 이전 야후처럼 더 나은 후발주자에게 밀릴 수 있다고 우려했다. 완전히 새로운 결제 시스템이 나올 가능성도 언급. 도지코인: 실질적 가치 사고가 없는 '더 큰 바보 이론(greater fool)'의 일부로, 공급 제한이 없어 유용성이 낮다고 보며 숏도 하지 않고 무시한다고 밝혔다. 조건/리스크: 비트코인 매수 과정의 어려움, 이더리움 경쟁 리스크, 도지코인의 투기성이 주요 리스크로 언급됨. 투자 권유는 '롱도 숏도 하지 말라'는 중립적 결론. 출연자 전망: 드러큰밀러 본인 발언 중심이며, 사회자 발언은 제외함.
다듬은 글
i felt like a for not buying bitcoin i just couldn't stand the fact that it was going up and i didn't own it billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller has recently explained why invested only 20 million in bitcoin skeptical of ethereum and prefers to pretend that dogecoin doesn't exist at all for the first move in bitcoin i think from like 50 to 17 000 i just sat there aghast and i wanted to buy it every day it was going up and even though i didn't think much of it i just couldn't stand the fact that it was going up and i didn't own it druckenmiller said in an interview with the hustle earlier this week a few years ago druckenmiller famously said that bitcoin is a solution in search of a problem since then however he evolved on this thanks to a couple of occurrences first he finally realized what problem bitcoin aims to solve and that problem was called central banks i found the problem when we did the cares act and chairman powell started crossing all sorts of red lines in terms of what the federal reserve would do and wouldn't do the problem was jay powell and the world's central bankers going nuts and making fiat money even more questionable than it already has been when i used to own gold druckenmiller explained ultimately druckenmiller never owned any bitcoin while the crypto's price grew from fifty dollars to seventeen thousand dollars and felt like a then a fellow billionaire paul tudor jones called him and said did you know that when bitcoin went from seventeen thousand dollars to three thousand dollars eighty-six percent of the people that owned it at seventeen thousand never sold it well this was huge in my mind so here's something with a finite supply and eighty six percent of the owners are religious zealots i mean who the hell hold something through seventeen thousand dollars to three thousand dollars and it turns out none of them the 86 percent sold it add that to this central bank craziness phenomenon drunken miller noted finally he decided to buy a hundred million dollars worth of bitcoin at around six thousand two hundred dollars but ran into some issues however drunken miller didn't explain what those were it took me two weeks to buy twenty million dollars i bought it all around 6500 i think and i said this is ridiculous you know it takes me two weeks i can buy that much gold in two seconds he lamented adding so like an idiot i stopped buying it the next thing i knew bitcoin is trading at 36 000 ultimately druckenmiller took some costs and then some out of his bitcoin investment but still held on to an undisclosed amount of bitcoin my heart's never been in it i'm a 68 year old dinosaur but once it started moving and these institutions started upping it i could see the old elephant trying to get through the keyhole and they can't fit through in time he argued speaking about ethereum and other cryptos druckenmiller argued that it will be very very tough to unseat bitcoin as the ultimate store of value among assets i think bitcoin has won the store of value game because it has a brand it's been around for 13 14 years and it has a finite supply is it going to be gold i don't know it sure as hell doing a good imitation of it the last year or two he pointed out meanwhile druckenmiller lauded ethereum's qualities as a commerce facilitator and the leading platform for smart contracts the billionaire however said he's a little more skeptical of whether it can hold its position it reminds me a little of myspace before facebook or maybe a better analogy is yahoo before google came along google wasn't that much faster than yahoo but it didn't need to be all it needed to be was a little faster and the rest is history druckenmiller opined further he argued that a completely new better payment system could emerge in the future and there's a chance that it hasn't even been invented yet meanwhile bitcoin will likely continue to be considered a store of value akin to gold as long as jay powell keeps acting like he's been acting i think gold and bitcoin and bitcoin seems to be a high beta gold are going to have the win behind them druckenmiller noted dogecoin on the other hand doesn't elicit any serious thought from druckenmiller at all despite numerous endorsements from billionaires such as elon musk or michael saylor doge is just part of this wave of money in the greater fool theory he argued now having said that i wouldn't short it because i don't like putting campfires out with my face so i just try to pretend doge doesn't exist i think so little of it it doesn't even bother me when it goes up druckenmiller confessed likewise he compared dogecoin to booming non-fungible tokens in the sense that it's a manifestation of the craziest monetary policy in history and i think since there's no limit on supply i don't really see the utility of dogecoin right now when bitcoin used to go up i'd go crazy because i didn't own it when dogecoin goes up i just start laughing said druckenmiller concluding don't go long and don't go short i mean you know unless you like going to vegas then i guess it's okay so that's it for today guys make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel and we'll see you in the next one
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