저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 팔란티어는 미 육군 계약 갱신 우려로 하락했으나, 캐시 우드 ARK가 매수하며 17달러 지지선 방어 여부가 핵심이다. 계약 리스크: 육군 계약 갱신이 낮은 금액·짧은 기간으로 나올 것이라는 부정적 기사가 여러 매체에 나오고 있으나 아직 확정되지 않은 예측이다. 주가 흐름: 최근 고점 21.85달러에서 약 15% 하락해 17달러 부근에서 거래 중이며, 이는 50일 이동평균선 아래의 중요 지지선이다. 17달러 이탈 시 14~16달러 구간 조정 가능성을 언급했다. 수급: 거래량은 최근 평균 수준(약 5,600만 주)이며, 옵션은 풋 거래량이 많던 전날과 달리 콜 거래량이 풋을 상회했다. 캐시 우드 매수: ARK 계열이 약 150만 주를 매수해 보유량이 770만 주(약 1억 3,300만 달러, 펀드의 약 1.6%)로 늘었다. 하락장 매수를 긍정 신호로 해석했다. 업계 흐름: AI 주식 전반이 조정 국면이며, C3.ai도 실적 후 약 10% 하락했다. 펀더멘털: 올해 매출 추정 22억 달러에서 향후 수년간 32억 달러로 전망. 선행 12개월 PSR은 약 16.6배로 고평가 부담이 있다. AIP 부트캠프로 상업 고객이 늘어 정부 계약 의존도를 낮추는 중이며, 4분기 연속 GAAP 흑자 달성 시 S&P500 편입 요건이 충족된다고 설명했다. 전망: 진행자는 시장 기준 신중한 입장이며 개인 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시했다. 내일 17달러 지지 여부를 주목하라고 권고했다.
다듬은 글
ladies and gentlemen we continue to have bearish articles being released for palente here across the interwebs regarding the upcoming renewal of that Army contract which is predicted to come in at a a lower value and B at a shorter term these have been deployed over the last 3 days across media outlooks and are still continuing to be deployed today however Kathy Wood swoops in and accumulates over 1.5 million shares of pltr adding it to her various ETFs with consolidation and actually finishing slightly in the green today paler is setting out one of its most important critical support levels because it's right underneath its 50-day moving average we're going to be talking about this hit that like button subscribe if other videos and of course I'm not a financial advisor so take everything I say the grain of salt I'm just collecting the data and dispatching it to you now pop it up on the screen what paler is sitting at right now is at a juicy 1722 remember recently pltr is able to establish that high at 21.85 up here what you see is this critical level of support right here because if pal here Falls beneath this level of support at around the 17s this large gap was created right after Q3 earnings were reported and looking at trading volumes right now sitting at paler kind of typical average that we've seen in the previous few months at about 56 million and if we quickly take a look at the options contracts right now we actually have a flip yesterday we saw a lot of put volume but today we're seeing actually a decent amount of call volume that's actually out beating the puts for exper ations of tomorrow and for next week the same story as people are taking a bet on stripe prices above 17 and having more implied volatility over the actual puts that we are seeing now getting into the news right here let's talk about Kathy Wood coming in here and snapping up over 1.5 million shares of pounds here following the stop stock tumble and basically what we've had is pound here falling nearly 15% as we've seen it close from 2027 um uh on wnes Wednesday here going to 17113 so talking about that what we do have is Kathy Woods Arc invest which is basically an ETF that is looking into disruptive Technologies palen here being one of them as one of the leading competitors and people saying as a general um basically bet in the AI industry this Flagship Arc Flagship right here was responsible for the bulk of the purchase buying more than 1.2 million shares valued at more than 20 million and now talking about that the actual pent here holding behind Arc Innovations is now at 7.7 million shares and is valued at 133 million making up about 1.6% of the total fund and interesting to see here penter coming in on the dip and Kathy Wood coming in here and purchasing paler on that dip and like I said we still continue to go across the board talking about this Army contract renewal could ruffle some feathers and remember we have a course that analyst that had came out and basically saying hey we think there's a bearish outlook on paler talking about concerns over the data ownership and also with the industry event that the Army might be looking into possibly competitors looking at different vendors and also going to be bringing in this paler contract at a lower revenue and also at a lower length of time however these are all just predictions they are not confirmed yet there is still a lot to wait for that so in terms of paler sitting on here we see one analyst that really did a strong job at slipping the stock down coming here from 21 coming back down here into the 17s what we have seen is a general cool off in the AI bubble and specifically right here at C3 c3.ai another big uh volatile AI stock coming at mixed earnings you see this stock fall about 10% of the day going from about 30 down to about 26 so even though in the global markets what we have seen is actually a little bit of an increase right here and in terms of the actual AI stocks we're seeing still some uncertainty and also a lot of speculation about its possible future now talking about that with this palor stock that has seemed to be drastic regarding its selloff and especially for those that may have just entered into this recent position right here there could still Trend lower before rebounding due to some different patterns so specifically looking at those patterns for pltr is looking at and spe specifically looking at where does Palance here comfortably trade and looking here in the previous few months basically here from September to November paler does a good job that likes to sit in between the 14s and the 16s so paler if it loses the $17 level of support could fall back into this area of consolidation depending on how the actual emotion and also the momentum could change behind some of these AI stocks now talking about that and is it too late to buy pal Ander that really all depends on your outlook for the stock specifically the AI industry and what your long-term growth goal is and basically how long you want to hold a speculative stock and even getting into the AI sphere like paler talking about this for their actual Revenue estimates for this next year for this year actually the current fiscal year is at 2.22 billion over the next few years here it's predicted to be at 3.2 billion so talking about that paland deer tier does trade at a high multiple and specifically at a high valuations right here at its forward oneyear price to sales ratio is at 16.61% General talking about that paler is doing one thing that is holding it up against a lot of the Bayers out there and that is with it's AIP boot camp remember paler has of course the AIP boot camp that these possible commercial clients can test for free and basically they claim that they can give you a use case within 5 days so the fact that we've seen in the recent quarter Revenue outlooks that they're commercial year over year your growth is continuing to increase and that commercial customer count in terms of Revenue and actually just Shear numbers is continuing to increase so with AIP boot camp is bringing a lot of diversification in terms of a clientele perspective to the table and it's allowing paler to basically not be solely reliant on a single Revenue source which is the majority of its Revenue Source government contracts and which is why I think you see here if analysts say one thing about p here about the uncertain future of one specific contract we see s this large price in its actual valuation and we see its market cap that is highly volatile just because of a possible uncertainty which this does give me a point to believe here that paler still has a decent amount of maturity to achieve in terms of a milestone the first Milestone that we really have seen of course is that profitability and nonetheless the four quarters of that gap profitability which brings the criteria for the S&P 500 inclusion with that you have its market share that as it increases it will become more mature as it gets Diversified with many different types of clients that allow a diversification in its Revenue income so other than that paler will still be sitting on the sidelines here waiting we'll see what happens tomorrow and we're sitting at a really critical support level right now so make sure everybody keeps a very close eye on Palante here I'll catch you guys later have a great night and of course we'll make a video tomorrow coming into the weekend peace out
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