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He's talking about robots. In 10 years, there will be more robots. Elon talked about this. There will be significantly more robots. I think we will sell between 10 and 30 million robots. And he's like, "Wait, what? "Yes, I think Tesla will sell between 10 and 30 million." And he replied as if: "It's not a big deal, right?" He talked about it last year.
We've all seen that excerpt. What do you think about what's happening with companies like Autopilot that can get a 13F form on what Jim Simons of Renaissance Technology did, which has a 49% return, and I can replicate their 13F reports and just invest in it. You know, all these traders for Nancy Pelosi, or the "opposite Cramer" strategy.
What do you think this will do to the market? Do you believe in this concept ? What do you think this is ... Is this more marketing than the real essence? Because even in 13F reports there is a huge delay. Yes. But during this time you don't know when they sell, right? You don't know. They've already sold it, so the asset is completely gone.
You know, all this stuff with Nancy Pelosi or Jim Cramer—it's great marketing. It might work, or it might not. It doesn't really affect things as much as the reality of indexing itself, because of the volume of indexing that has occurred in our country and around the world. That's what created such concentration.
That's what created all this correlation, where everything is moving in the same direction. A very simple portfolio that was well diversified in 2005 had an average correlation, as it's called, of 0.16. Remember, one is perfect correlation, zero is none . 0.16. Today, the same portfolio in the same proportions has a 0.65.
Nothing has changed with those assets except for concentration and indexation, which is why when people sell, everyone sells. When people buy, everyone buys, because when you buy an ETF or an index fund, they are literally forced to be sellers or buyers. There is no middle ground here. So in stressful situations, when the market is under pressure, the correlation increases.
In the same portfolio under stressed conditions, the average correlation is over 85%. Everything is hit at the same time, except for a few assets. This is why the holy grail of investing is so important. That's why you need to have things in your portfolio that are truly less correlated or not correlated at all to get off the "roller coaster" and onto the " escalator." You are a big fan of Ray Dalio.
Ray Dalio, I spent some time with him at his Bridgewater. It's right across the street, I think, right next to IBM, where its headquarters are. He talks about many signs. We just crossed the $40 trillion debt mark, right? He talks a lot about seeing all the signs of the Great Depression. And I think he has a video on YouTube that's about 45 minutes long.
If you can get to YouTube, type in "Ray Dalio," filter by views on his channel. Or just go to his channel. This video has received 50 million views. And this is not just a short video. Go to his channel right there. " Principles" by Ray Dalio. Please go to videos and then to the popular section. Where is it?
Oho. What is written there? 409 million views . Second—202 million views. Yes. These are not small numbers. These are incredible figures . He believes that a depression-like moment is near . Do you agree with him? Well, I agree with him that he doesn't think that's the case at all. He believes that there is a certain pattern that has been repeated throughout human history, and he has studied over 500 years of history to see what it was.
This model is that countries grow just like children. We have different stages. Look, if you're a toddler, you're going to get into trouble more often than when you're a baby, right? Because you can do different things. The teenager is acting like a madman. You're growing up, getting a little older.
You get a little older, you do different things. You get older, you behave differently at each stage. So are countries. There's a pattern: when a country has too much debt, when people expect too much without working hard, and you can look back to the times of Rome, to what happened to the British Empire .
There comes a time when someone else becomes a competitor. And now China is undoubtedly such a competitor for us . When this happens, a certain conflict arises. And the conflict often escalates even more if there are conflicts within the country itself. So we do n't just have debt, we have several of these elements.
We have internal conflicts in our country, where we have used social media to a large extent, and external players have only exacerbated this to create even more tension. It makes you weaker, doesn't it? We spend money all over the world on various wars. China keeps everything under control and plays Go.
We are playing chess. If you don't understand the difference, Go is a million times more difficult, but much slower. You gradually, before anyone notices , take over their territory. You don't go straight to war. It's like "The Art of War." So, we are now in a situation where we have to cut costs, but no one is doing it.
No party does this. And so he raises the flag, saying that we can't go on like this anymore. We have a trillion dollars in debt, the interest on which we are paying this year. Well, I mean, the answer to that question is that nobody wants to solve this problem because it's definitely not popular, and politicians have always avoided it because it doesn't help them get reelected.
But now in August we are where we predicted we would be at the end of the year. 40 trillion dollars. So he said "on the edge", those are his words. Yes. I believe we are on the edge now. Yes. I'm worried about something worse than a recession. If this is not handled well, it will be worse than a recession.
Depression is what he's talking about now . He's also worried, you know, about civil unrest. He worries about all of these elements together. So they are all quite right. I invite him to speak. He is my dear friend. The other day he sent me a note. He said, you know, there's a Chinese proverb: a rabbit has many holes.
He asked: How many more holes do you have around the world to make sure you're in good shape? So yes, I think it's a very serious problem, but I think the only way to solve it is for people to put pressure on their politicians. But now we have politicians on both sides using what is happening around us to gain more power.
This has nothing to do with serving the American people, does it? So it doesn't look very optimistic about our solution to this issue. But here's what I know about human history. Usually we need a crisis to wake us up. Look at the business. Even in my own business career, I can say, look at Blockbuster.
Blockbuster, well, they weren't stupid people. How did they go bankrupt? They could buy Netflix for $50 million. They, you know, we need them. Everything had been going so well for so long that suddenly things went wrong. They did not recover. Other companies have found a way to recover. They saw what was happening.
A crisis occurred, and it forced them to invent a new way of doing things. So I think crisis breeds breakthroughs. Some of these breakouts are painful. Some of these breakthroughs will be very, very... they will make life better for all of us. We have some opportunities to deal with this debt by becoming more productive.
And he says that AI is one of those opportunities, but we're not yet getting the level of results from AI that would give us that massive leap in productivity, because you have to look at your assets and liabilities. If you talk to people who look at this country and say, "What are all our resources?" This includes all our resources underground, everything we have.
The ratio of debt to our total real resources is something that is completely controlled in the minds of these people. But are we approaching a point where people will have to face retribution? I believe the answer is absolutely yes. I wonder who will take the initiative in this, because you're right, you can't win an election with the slogan, "Hey, we'll reduce the debt during my term." "I'll make sure we cut some social programs, spend less on the military, spend less on this." I don't want this guy to get elected.
It will be so easy to incite fear against this person. So it's almost like the Supreme Court, I do n't even know how to get it through the Supreme. Someone has to say, "Hey, we're the board of directors of America." "You can't do that." "The crisis will do that." So, I mean, it takes a crisis to get people to take action.
Like when people abuse drugs, and, you know, that's what we've done to some extent with capital, right? And they abuse drugs. We spent money—it was our drug. We are bloated. What happens at a certain moment? There is a point where you keep trying to get more but get less satisfaction, and then there comes a point where you finally get into a crisis, and you either perish in that crisis or you transform.
I think we are facing a crisis. There is no doubt about it. I really like what you said, and it's incredibly important to have 8 to 12 uncorrelated investments to make sure that even if that happens, you know, certain things will still perform well during that period. But if you are 100% in one area, like you put "hold" the S &P 500 or "sell," whatever you chose, you chose " sell." So if you're just in the S&P 500, you know, they used to say, just put your money in an American investment company with American funds or go to T.
Rowe Price or somewhere else. Yes. Those times are gone. Devil. So good. So maybe let me tell you, you're not trying to guess the market timing. No, I'm not trying to guess, I can't do that. This... no one does this . Nobody does that, really. So good. So give me a hedge. What is your hedge against a large-scale crisis that could lead to a 40% correction?
Ray's hedge is described in the book Money: Master of the Game, and this is essentially what we do; He calls it an " all-weather portfolio." And he found out, for example -- this is a bit complicated, so I'll simplify it: when people think about stocks and bonds and say, " I'm 50/50, I'm splitting it in half, " you're not 50/50, because stocks are three times more volatile than bonds.
So the idea of 60/40, 50/50 is based on an illusion about the level of risk. This is not true. This is why people get a result that they are very unhappy with. So he laid out, and I laid out in my book, the exact balance of how to keep yourself safe. So if one goes up , the other goes down, and vice versa, you get a balanced portfolio that is not the most aggressive, which will give you the highest returns, but it will protect you in any weather, in any season, in any conditions.
He is a master of this. And here's what we did: we took the same concept that everyone in the financial industry knows, that Markowitz won the Nobel Prize for modern portfolio theory. Ray did a great job of making this clear to a huge number of people. And we took the concept of the " all-weather portfolio" and applied it to truly less correlated assets , which are private markets.
So when you have private market assets that are uniquely less correlated and you combine them with the general philosophy of an all-weather portfolio, that's how you get what we call the holy grail of investing . That's what ultimately allows people to get through this. I want to go back to one thing you said.
There is actually a solution that doesn't require a crisis. It's not very popular, but it's a reality that the American people have the power to fix the debt problem themselves, without the politicians bothering them. And this is a constitutional convention where they say: we are going to pass a balanced budget amendment.
Of course, this comes with great pain and many obstacles, but it is actually provided for by the constitution. The rights of the American people—if they rise up and unite— allow them to absolutely change the situation. But I don't know if it will happen in my lifetime. And we should prepare investments in case it does n't.
And we want to have this all-weather portfolio , using the best of public and private markets, and every investor can do that. By the way, if you're watching this right now and you're one of those people who's like, "Oh my God, this is why I'm so scared, and this is why I'm just not going to go to the market, because what if this actually happens?" Well, if you don't do it, and it happens, and the market is like this for the next 5-10 years, you're going to lose too much.
You know, that story about if you go back 20 years and miss the six best days... That's for sure. The difference in the amount of money you lose depends on how much you invested, you lose that much profit because of fear. By the way, the best days usually come two weeks after the worst, if you look at history.
People panic and stay away . That's why owning assets that are not as liquid , where you have people... why does private equity perform better than the stock market? They don't fall as much and recover faster. How is this possible? Because they don't need to sell. When everyone goes crazy, they act like you own your own property.
They own a business. They You don't even have a choice. You are forced to stay in position. We have cash flow. We don't need to do anything. We continue to do business. We may buy at this time, but sell when the market goes up again. And that is why they are able to create such huge fortunes. Listen, if you look at the Fortune 400 list and ask, who are the richest people in the country?
What industry do they work in? Most people say technology, but that's not true at all. Real estate is not like that at all . Medicine is not like that . By the way, these are not hedge funds, because they come and go. This is private equity because these guys aren't trying to guess the time. They buy an asset.
The same thing you and I do in business , right? You and I have done this many times. We get business. And what do we do ? We create huge value, transform the team, attract a new CEO, implement AI, change marketing, develop the business and sell it more expensively to another business or take it public.
That's what they do. This is a completely different formula. It's not like the old days, when you took something, divided it into parts, sold it off, and drove everyone into debt. Those days are mostly gone today. Handcrafted in five Italian factories with foot support technology, these may be the most comfortable shoes you've ever owned.
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