Jeremy Siegel: The biggest risk on AI investing is that it can be done much more cheaply

요약 보기

Siegel은 AI가 실제 혁명이며 장기적으로 경제를 크게 바꿀 것이라고 봄. 다만 S&P500 내 AI 비중이 약 1/3이고 AI 제외 시 PER 약 20배, 현재 시장 PER 23배 수준은 금리·유동성 고려 시 적정선이 아닐 수도 있다고 언급. 가장 큰 리스크는 AI가 작동하느냐가 아니라 훨씬 저렴하게 구현 가능한지(데이터센터 수천억~조 달러 투자 필요성)라고 지적. 닷컴 버블 붕괴 때 광섬유 효율화가 원인이었던 사례를 비유로 듦. 단기적으로는 변동성(choppiness)이 예상되고 연말까지 흔들릴 수 있으며 Fed 금리 인하 여부에 대한 우려 언급. 영구적 강세론자(permabull)로서 과거 약세 예측자들(Bill Gross Dow 5000 등)이 틀렸다고 언급.

다듬은 글

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01. We got to get I don't know some optimism, pessimism. Let's see what Jeremy Seagull's got to say this morning. Professor Aarden School of Business, also chief economist at Wisdom Tree. Where do you stand, Professor? Well, uh Andrew, you said earlier about uh you know, how has the past looked when you invested 23 times earnings of you know, it's certainly a very a very good and apt apt question.

02. Um I would I would answer I would answer the following. Um if you take out the AI the mag 7 you're really closer to 20 times earnings and I've written that 20 times earnings in in the market today given you know interest rates liquidity etc is the right ratio. So the question is is AI priced too high or not?

03. Now it you know obviously it's you know it's almost a third of the S&P. I'm not saying if it if it goes down, you're going to go down on a on an indexed, but you have to admit AI is is is a revolution uh unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime. Um and uh you know, could bring benefits that we don't even know about at this point.

04. You know, I think the the biggest risk uh on AI investing may not be whether it works or not. I think it's it's going to be worked, but can it be done much more cheaply? Uh, do we need a trillion dollars of data centers? I remember when we got when we went back to the dot boom and bust, what really caused the bust was they figured out how to put a thousand times more data through the fiber optic uh uh cables uh that uh they were laying.

05. all of a sudden, you know, the multipplexing, uh, and all those companies that said, you know, we're just going to, you know, wire the universe said, you know what, we we don't need that much. Um, is is there a possible, and I'm just putting this out here, a way to to get AI without spending the hundreds of billions of dollars on these centers?

06. But AI, no matter what happens, it is really going to totally transform our economy. You know, professor, we uh how many times have we called Professor Seagull a permabull? Uh Andrew, you have you have lived your entire life with with that moniker. And I think you could speak to to this professor, if the Dow was at 780, you know, that that's when I remember.

07. I think I was in Maryland's trading class and and so maybe I'm I don't know. My muscle memory is if it was at 780 and it's now at 47,000. Being a perma bull has has been the right thing to do. And I know perma bears. There's guys that were interviewed at by Baronss every week. They were perma bear. Can you speak to that?

08. Perma bears are always in fashion. They're always in fashion. Permabulls. If you're wrong once you're going to get written up all over. Why? Why does it work that way? where it's so fashionable to be a a perma bear. And I'm I'm not going to mention any names, but they know who they are. Yeah. But they can always uh you know, being a

09. there's one per you you know Joe, my publisher when I when I publish stocks for the long run said, "Jeremy, do you know that bearish books, you know, cataclysmic books, doom and gloom books out sell optimistic books by five to one?" um about the writing about the past. You're not That wasn't a predictive true.

10. Go ahead. Sorry. I mean, it's just people think if you're an optimist, you're you're wearing Panglosian glasses, rose color. You just you don't get it. People who are optimistic don't get how bad things really are. Um I heard you, you know, I mean, we're talking about Gunlock, uh you know, Jeffrey Gunlock being perma bear.

11. Uh I think one person you were thinking of early on, Bill Gross, remember Dow 5000. Uh I mentioned that you know that he he worst call in history. Yeah. Yeah. I mean yeah that by by the way that was absolutely at the low of the post uh financial crisis market that that came out it was he called for another uh you know 50% decline and it was straight up from that point there.

12. So, you know, in the long run, uh, listen, we may we may wobble the year end, uh, you know, I I do think there's some, you know, worry about if the Fed is going to go or not. I I think they should do 25, but, you know, uh, choppiness is likely to be the order of the day. But um you know as I say AI is a is a revolution that could that's changing the world that could bring about economies of scale that far exceed what we saw from the development of the internet.

13. So yeah, there's, you know, does that deserve a 30 or a 35p while the rest of the market is, you know, 19 or 20, you know, you you you know, but I would say yes. Um, so yeah, I think it's different this time. Of course, everyone who says it's different this time often often regrets it later on. But uh I I think we all agree that we are seeing things with AI that uh that that we have not seen in our lifetime.