저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
실적 시즌 직전 큰 주가 급등은 실적에 대한 근거 없는 과열이라 위험하다는 주장. 알파벳·AMD·맥도날드·캐터필러·메타·마이크로소프트·애플·아마존 등 빅테크/대형주의 실적 전 리스크를 짚으며 실적 전 매수를 피하라고 권고. 메타는 상대적으로 가장 덜 문제 있다고 평가. 과거 상승 설명은 예측 아님.
다듬은 글
at money welcome to K America I'll b they educate to teach you so call me at 1800 743 cmbc or tweet me at Jim Craver you can't make up these moves I'm talking about the big runs in all sorts of stocks going into earnings runs that raise the stakes to dangerous levels for those who want to buy stocks before the company's report and you can't see in the averages where the Dow gain 273 points today Dallas up 27% nasda Advantage 26% but it's pulsing underneath virtually every major company I talked about in my game plan on Friday traded ER radically high today let me explain first you need to understand that no one knows these earnings numbers ahead of time except the CEO the CFO and a very small group of very important people in each company and they are tight liit the analysts often try to sound like they know but we've seen how wrong they can be over and over and over again so when a stock Roars into earnings it's not like it reflects inside information simply reflects excessive enthusiasm of pleasure in other words these stocks are going up on nothing and that I think makes them very dangerous that's what we got to talk about let me give you some salian examples tomorrow night we hear from alphabet which is up nearly 20 bucks from its September lows including a bucking change again today alphabet's notorious for not delivering its most desirable set of numbers there's always a revenue number there's a little off for an outsize loss in the other bets casual division or some figure that shows that they paid too much for little traffic this time the issue might be management is defense about gemini or their AI platform even when the quarter is genuinely good alphit can make it sound bad oh and maybe they reveal that wh Mo's losing money hand over fist we got a brand new CFO here maybe they want to tell things differently very hard for the stock to go up on earnings unless nearly everything goes right and for this company it rarely does then there's AMD now I think this stock is dir cheap buy it for the trust but the company just bought ZT systems for $4.9 billion in cash and stock in order to compete more aggressively with Nvidia AMD said it intends to break off CT's data center infrastructure manufacturing business the hardware component and sell it what happens if they don't sell it what happens if they can't sell it will the stock get dinged clobbered how about these new AI fueled personal computers are they selling well we hear no like all these stocks there are a ton of variables and no one knows the answers except CEO Lisa Su and a couple other people at AMD but I do know that amds run up nearly $30 from September lows advancing another 369 today and that makes it more precarious all right how about McDonald's when this stock fell from 316 to 292 last week on E coli outbreak I thought it would be immunized from anything negative but now it's creeping right back up rallying $4 today on what on what that it's reintroducing the quarter pounder son onions in some states we don't want that pre- earnings rally we want the stock to have no fluff so it can go up five on a good quarter now it's borrowed that upside gain it'll go up but I don't know how much anymore Wednesday morning classic it starts with caterpillar which rather notoriously reports a headline number that's immediately traded upon before we get any of the small print from the company you get the headline earnings and sales and numbers but they don't tell you everything you need to know in fact they're not even in many cases the most important thing to know people will want to know about inventories and if cats are big on sales and earnings it can go down big on inventories or in other words where the big trucks are so sure you're going to get some terrific verbiage about the data center they you need cats to build that stuff including their backup engine Remember by the way I saw the cat solar engine on on the rig last week I'm I'm sorry the platform this week now I think cat's doing amazingly well they've been able to stop the chatter about lower sales in China it means nothing now but man this thing is already up more than 60 bucks 60 from September lows and attacked on nearly five points today on what I say it's run too much and I like the company very much Wednesday afternoon it's meta and Microsoft now I think meta is the cleanest one of all the stocks okay that's going to report this week that I've been talking about uh last quarter Mark Zuckerberg laid out a strategy where his company becomes the most important place for a company to advertise like these big consumer products you like the col gates in the future you just wire money in meta and they design your campaign and place the ads where they should be and have to go with people who want them everything's targeted customers will save billions of dollars but gez mat have jumped nearly five bucks today on nothing fortunately at 578 it's still well below its alltime high of 602 I think it's the least problematic of the big names we're hearing about this week as for Microsoft well maybe you caught a break in this one with the stock down a buck and a half today after being up four at one point now you need to Discount you need that discount why because we keep hearing that Microsoft's co-pilot much vanted co-pilot I should say has stalled it's gotten some mixed reviews including from Gartner very source of a very important source of information it's being knocked on Twitter by Mark benof CEO of Salesforce the Long Knives may be out for Microsoft so if there's a dent in the sales look out we also have to worry about Azure the web service Vision which can upset people even if it only misses by an infinitesimal amount that you and I can't see without a microscope Microsoft is no longer the lock it used to be Thursday Thursday could be Dreadful people you know I say own Apple don't trade it right but having the stock up two bucks today sing it within $4 spitting distance of its all-time high that's a Prelude to a nightmare we've heard so many firms ahead of this quarter and almost every single one is negative they're going to miss they're going to miss they're going to miss they're going to miss oh and did I mention that they're going to miss there aren't enough iPhone orders China's terrible who cares about AI when you can't see it neither at or Verizon called it is doing well they didn't say that and uh T-mobile said it was good and the Stock's so high for some reason the drum beat of negative news about weak orders and lousy lead times hasn't impacted the share price this time I say strap yourself to the Apple MK because it could get real choppy SL ugly now this Stock's got to be it's got to be a perfect report okay to go up from these levels and I I think the word perfect does not come to mind when we're talking about Apple's quarter all right how about Amazon now there's so much that could go wrong here at the last time Amazon reported it missed its retail sales number causing people to head to the exits all at once the stock got plummeted all the way down to 161 didn't help forecast was bad forecast is the forecast it's now back to 188 yet there's no sign that retail is improving and if you think back they gave you a downbeat forecast because of the attempted assassination of trump as well as the Olympics now you can never count Amazon out but I do not love the risk word here even as we own the stock from a Trel trust then there's the problem of project ker Kyper it's like male Kyper or it's like that really weird green liquor Amazon's money losing satellite internet system is service is Kyper Elon mus allowed to lose whatever the hell he wants right I he can do whatever he want because SpaceX is private but the say two trillion could lose two trillion you know they make it up with the deficit but the same rules do not apply with Amazon I think ker comes in negative not a positive way and people are going to say huh I didn't know read the p and cmc.com you'll know exactly what I'm talking about go there but wait for the show then every one of these Tech Titans will be held up to scrutiny about their data center spending and they'll be asked about the monetization of what they spend each one better have a good answer certainly better than what alphabet did say last time saying it's necessary because the other guys are spending and you have to keep up with them then their stock will be sunk even if it's a legitimate explanation don't do that every one of the tech Titans will also be accused of writing too big a check to Jensen Wong at Nvidia they'll try to say that they're developing their own chips and they don't need Jens some Wong but it won't be what it won't be uh let's say it could be uh disingenuous how about that uh look I am indeed trying to discourage you from Trading these stocks ahead of the quarters it's just a roulette game based on nothing often the game feels rigged you just don't know which way it's rigged because companies really and truly do not let this stuff drip out cuz it's like like really bad to go to jail jail bad the spigot is closed bottom line no one on Wall Street knows what any of the quarters will look like except for the principles so don't bother to follow the money that you see trading right now in anticipation you know why it's a Fool's errand Chase in South Carolina Chase Booyah Jim how you doing I'm good Chase how about you uh it's a great day in the state of South Carolina I have a quick question about Honeywell and been a longtime player in it and a holder in it it's done very well and would like to get your thoughts on its recent activity and in the marketplace well uh it's been very the quarter was very poorly received and you know why cuz it was a very poor Court um I was not happy uh I had this great grandmother n a Mary and she always said to me if you have nothing good to say then don't say it that Mary was always right even about honey I'm trying to discourage you from trading this week's big cap stocks ahead of their quarters it's a guessing eight and I don't recommend it by the way people did it on Honeywell how you doing partner on man money tonight I'm checking up on HCA Healthcare to see if a pullback could be assigned to buy plus you called in you stu me with the sport radar group so I did a little research give me a rundown and later where does HP yeah you Packer Enterprise stand in the AI race I'm getting the latest from its CEO to Mad money. cnbc.com
Comments 0