저자: MasayoshiSon/Blackstone측진행자ChristineAnderson,RodneyZemmel,WinfieldSickles,SteveSchwarzman · 외국인
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이 영상은 블랙스톤(Blackstone)의 'Inside Blackstone' 에피소드로, AI 확산이 포트폴리오 기업 가치에 미치는 영향, 미국 경제 흐름, 그리고 SoftBank의 마사요시 손 회장과의 인터뷰로 구성된다. [블랙스톤 운영팀 로드니 제멜 - AI 실행과 생산성] 제멜은 AI가 블랙스톤 포트폴리오 기업들의 가치를 실제로 바꾸기 시작했다고 말한다. 1년 전만 해도 파일럿과 계획 단계였지만 지금은 일부 기업에서 성과가 나타나고 있다고 밝혔다. 초기에는 소프트웨어·서비스 분야를 주로 봤으나, 산업재(예: Chamberlain의 디지털 출입 사업), 헬스케어(데이터 처리·고객 상호작용), 소비자 사업 등 거의 모든 산업에서 AI 스토리가 있다고 봤다. 생산성 붐은 이미 시작됐다고 판단하며, AI 도입에는 '활성화 장벽'이 있어 시간이 걸리고 모두가 해내지는 못한다고 말했다. 그 어려움 덕분에 가치가 쉽게 경쟁으로 사라지지 않을 것이라는 시각이다. 조언으로는 (1) 한두 가지에 집중할 것, (2) 기술 주도가 아니라 비즈니스와 기술이 함께 이끄는 구조가 필요하다는 점을 꼽았다. [블랙스톤 경제 전망 - Winfield Sickles] 10년물 미국 국채금리가 5.3%대로 2002년 이후 최고 수준이며, 성장 주도로 올랐다고 평가했다. 회사채 조달비용은 다소 올랐으나 대체로 통제 가능한 수준이고, 기업 투자(CapEx)가 경제 전반으로 확산되고 있다고 봤다. 고용지표는 최근 약했으나 경제 데이터는 대체로 예상보다 좋고, 3분기 GDP 추정치는 약 3%로 추세 이상이다. 하이퍼스케일러 투자가 올해 약 8,000억 달러, 내년 1조 달러 이상으로 예상되며 클라우드 매출이 50~120% 성장 중이라 지출이 실적으로 나타나기 시작했다고 말했다. 이 흐름이 계속될 것으로 봤다. [SoftBank 마사요시 손 인터뷰] 손 회장은 AI가 지금까지의 투자들(알리바바, 야후, Arm, 비전펀드 등)은 '워밍업'에 불과하다고 말했다. 10년 내에 인간 두뇌를 1만 배 뛰어넘는 초지능이 등장할 수 있으며, 그 이후에는 AI가 스스로 기술을 혁신하게 된다고 봤다. 로봇 영역에서도 SoftBank 계열 30여 개 로봇 기업을 조용히 준비 중이며 AI 로봇 공장에서 로봇이 로봇을 생산하기 시작했다고 밝혔다. AI 규제 문제에 대해서는 기술 발전 자체가 해법이며 속도를 늦추지 말고 '좋은 의도'를 시스템에 넣으며 전속력으로 가야 한다고 주장했다. 자금 집중 전략에 대해서는 특정 한 분야가 아니라 LLM, 칩, 데이터센터 등 AI 생태계 전반에 투자하며 지분을 크게 보유(20~80%)하는 방식이라고 설명했다. 또한 큰 꿈이 큰 성과를 만든다고 강조했다. [Steve Schwarzman 마무리 - 블랙스톤 회장] 블랙스톤은 변화가 있어야 기회가 생기며, 단기 매매보다 20~30년 지속될 AI 흐름에 관심을 두고 있다고 말했다. AI 안전 문제는 이미 공론화되어 해결될 것이라 낙관하며, 의료·교육 등에서 큰 혜택이 있을 것이라고 봤다. 로봇이 상상하지 못한 일을 하게 되면 부를 늘리고 인간에게 시간을 줄 것이며, 변화는 생각보다 점진적이지만 궁극적으로 인류에 도움이 된다고 결론지었다.
다듬은 글
Usually I don't do this, okay? But... You know, we appreciate that. I know you don't. Yeah. Yeah, so this is my respect to you and Steve. Hello and welcome to this week's episode of Inside Blackstone. I'm Christine Anderson, Global Head of Corporate Affairs, and here's the lineup. First, Rodney Zemmel, Global Head of Blackstone’s Operating Team, joins us for the Monday Morning Meeting.
Then, Winfield Sickles is back with the Economic Weather Report. And next, the main event, my late-night conversation with legendary investor Masayoshi Son, Founder, Chairman, & CEO of SoftBank. Masa is renowned for making bold bets ahead of technological change. We discuss what he sees on the horizon and opportunities he believes the world is still underestimating.
And finally, Blackstone Chairman, CEO, & Co-Founder, Steve Schwarzman, joins me for the Debrief. All right, Rodney, thank you for joining us. Good to see you, Christine. Thank you for having me. All right, well you oversee our operating team. What that means is you go into our companies with your team and try to build value at these companies, try to improve them.
So clearly AI, as we both know, driving the conversation and the question for all of us right now is can you implement AI at these companies at scale in a way that improves the value of these companies? If you'd have asked me here a year ago, I think we would have talked about a lot of pilots and a lot of plans.
One of my favorite probably overused jokes of the beginning of the year is: the biggest beneficiaries of AI in 2025 were dogs owned by software developers. So, every good software developer figured out how to use these tools before anyone else did, got their work done 45 minutes faster, and then could go home and walk the dog.
So, you know, it's great for pet health, right? We're all for it. Not necessarily good for the bottom line. Exactly. Oh my goodness. Yep. That's not what our CFOs or what our investors want to see. Now, we've got a good number of companies we can point to where how that company works is feeling very different.
It's still early days, but we very much see it beginning to have an impact on the performance of the portfolio. So which industries are seeing the greatest value created from AI? Yes, so, all of them? And what surprised me was at the beginning, we started with a strong hypothesis around software and services, right?
And of course we spent a lot of time there. What surprised me though, is in pretty much every other industry there is an AI story to be told, right? And, you know, whether it's in industrials, right? With, for example, our company Chamberlain, where we're helping them build a whole new digital access business that wouldn't have been possible without AI.
Or whether in our healthcare businesses where you're thinking about everything they need to do from how they handle their data to how they interact with their customers that can be transformed. To real, to our consumer businesses, where the whole world of how consumers find information and make choices is changing dramatically and they really need to be on the forefront of it.
And we’re seeing that across industry after industry. What does that lead you to believe from a productivity boom standpoint? Well, I think we're probably already in it. What's different though, from maybe what people thought a couple of years ago is, it's hard, right? So, every company needs to sort of climb over this activation barrier, right?
Put real effort in, right? Before they can really… Start to… …get the effort out. Yeah, it takes time. So what does that mean? That means, one, it will take a little longer. Two, not everybody will be able to pull it off. By the way, as investors, we like that, right? The fact that it's hard means that the value once it's created will be a little stickier, right?
It won't all get competed away. And maybe, hopefully, we have some differential advantage in creating that value, right? That is what we're aiming for. Finally, lessons for any CEOs or leaders that are listening about how they would think about AI implementation? I'll give you two. Number one, focus.
It is not everything everywhere all at once. It's like pick one to two things. And number two, think very carefully about who you're putting in charge. I've never seen this turn into business impact if it is tech-led alone. It needs to be led by business and tech together, working in a super tight, iterative partnership.
That's hard, and that takes the right business leaders and time from the CEO themselves. Well, fascinating insights. I'm hoping you'll agree to be a regular on the show as this all plays out. If you'll have me, I'd welcome that. Of course, we would love it. And now over to my conversation with Winfield Sickles and the Economic Weather Report.
Hey Winfield. Hey Christine. Welcome back. All right, a lot has happened in the three weeks since you've been here. Understatement. I mean, including the haircut. Maybe also not an understatement. Looks good! Thank you. All right, the single sentence Economic Weather Report this week, I'm gonna make you do it.
Single sentence. One sentence. One sentence Economic Weather Report is: corporate borrowing costs are definitely higher and we're paying super close attention to it, but all the drivers of growth, which are born out of this AI infrastructure boom, and then the broadening of that to the rest of the economy is very much intact.
All right, you can go a little bit deeper now. I can talk more? Yeah, you can talk a little bit more about what's behind it. Okay so, Treasury yields, 10 year, through 5.3%. Highest level since 2002, right? Driven by growth, predominantly in our opinion. It's amazing to think that that's happened over six months.
That's when yields bottomed and stocks are up almost 20%. Corporate borrowing costs have expanded a little bit, but generally speaking, they're contained. And from our point of view, it's this acceleration in business investment. It's CapEx broadening out in the economy. And then economic data for the most part.
Jobs report was a little bit weak, the last one that came out. But, more broadly, the economic data keeps surprising to the top side. And when you look at Q3 GDP estimates, they're running around 3%, which is above trend for the US economy. Plus the AI infrastructure build-out, which is contributing to that story.
A hundred percent. So do you think this can continue? I think so because of what you just said on the AI infrastructure build-out. And I think, also, when you look to the public markets and you look to the earnings trajectory there, Q2, we've had this huge hyperscaler spend, you know, upwards of $800 billion this year, probably over a trillion dollars next year.
We're in the middle of Q3 earnings now. We'll see where they deliver. But last quarter, you saw cloud revenue up between 50 to 120% across those names. So it feels like the spend is starting to show up on the other side of the equation. Okay, I always have to ask, any data you're seeing from our portfolio companies that tells you what's happening?
I think you actually have the data from your great conversation with David Levine last week. We have all this AI infrastructure, but all of a sudden that's now impacting, for example, our logistics business and driving some of the growth that we're seeing there. So I think in terms of our proprietary data and how that broadening is coming to bear, that's a great example.
That's great. Well, thank you for being here. And now we're gonna turn to my conversation with Masa Son from SoftBank. Masa, welcome to Inside Blackstone. We're so thrilled to have you with us. Yes, thank you very much. It’s 11:00 p.m. in New York, and you're joining us from Tokyo. I'm gonna quickly give our listeners just a little bit of your bio before we dive in.
You were born in rural Japan to Korean parents. You moved yourself to California at age 16 and then sold your first technology, an electronic translator, while still a student at UC Berkeley. You used the proceeds to found SoftBank in 1981. Then over the next four decades, you developed a reputation for seeing technology shifts before other people.
You backed some of the defining companies of the Internet era before making bold bets on the future of artificial intelligence, including massive infrastructure investments and the largest stake in OpenAI. But the reason I wanted to have you on doesn't have anything to do with your track record. It's because you have an almost unmatched willingness to keep betting on what's next.
At 69, you've said that everything you've done up until this moment has been a warm-up for what's to come. So, I'd love to, I think that's the most astounding statement, so I wanted to start with that. You know, Alibaba, Yahoo, Arm, the Vision Fund. Is this all really just a warm-up? Yeah, I truly think so.
What's going to happen on AI is so remarkable, so big, okay? So it seems that everything that I did in the past was just, you know, tiny things. Tiny, tiny things. Well, so when you talk about what's next, Steve Schwarzman, he said to me, you should really just ask Masa one thing, which is sort of, how do you see it?
How do you get conviction around a big idea? AI was my theme for many, many years. In fact, when I saw the first photograph of the microprocessor at the age of 17, you know, I was reading the magazine on the street and I start crying, truly. Physically, I start crying on the street, just reading Popular Electronics or something.
I said, this is going to change the future of mankind. You know, the microprocessor eventually becomes so powerful, so smart, that it will be smarter than people's brain, eventually. It may take some number of years. And I predicted maybe 50 years, it’s damn right, it's now 50 years. I was 17 years old, I'm 69, so you know, 50 years.
Now the microprocessors, the power of brain in data centers. These are all happening and now it's gonna go into the brain of the robotics, okay? So it's not just, you know, on the virtual world, but also in the physical world, it's gonna start to happen. You said you think that could be 10,000 times more intelligent than humans, and that could come within a decade.
Has that timetable sped up? No matter what, how you define, if the AI become 10,000 times smarter, there's no more debate. It becomes so smart that it will start to innovate new technology by itself, right? So, it's really happening. So, paint a picture for me then. What does that world look like? You're obviously an optimist, right?
About this AI-enabled future. What does it look like for humankind? They will be happier if the human are happier. If the human is happier by curing our unsolvable disease, like cancer and so on. Right. And make sure we have no more accident on the street, make sure that all kinds of disaster, natural disaster coming, they forecast and they give us solutions.
So, they become like our surrounding of the brain to help us become more productive, help us become happier, you know, and enjoy human, like, life. What becomes of human progress? So much of life today, and what you and I probably get out of life is achievement and learning new things each day. What does the human experience become?
Well, I think it will be even more fun, okay? We don't have to do what we did not want to do. We can have more joy, more entertainment, more sports, more family engagement, more friends. So, more human, high-touch things, right? That we can do. Very interesting, and yet there's been so much news lately about the risks associated with AI.
Even OpenAI recently disclosed new incidents where AI systems had falsified data and hid mistakes and essentially acted without permission, much like the Hugging Face situation. You know, OpenAI itself says it doesn't believe the industry has solved the alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree to continue reasonably scaling at maximum speed.
Do you agree with that? I'm on the side of not really slowing down. Technology development actually is the solution to those kinds of issues. If we are primitive, of course we need guidance, the rules, like when automotive society comes, okay? We create a rule that we cannot drink, right? When you are driving, you cannot have alcohol in your brain.
You have to stop at the red light, okay? You have to run on one side of the road so that you don't have a crash, okay? You have to create the rules and the manners, the etiquette, for the better, you know, society of automotive. We have to do the same thing for the AI, okay? And cyberattack, we supposed not to do.
We have to protect the cyberattack by the technology and we have to protect bad AI agent don't misbehave. Like a human supposed not to be misbehaved. We have to teach AI agent, these are the bad thing, okay? So, it's not just a capable AI agent. We have to create a good AI agent, good in heart. You know, make human happier.
That's the goal AI agents supposed to have, okay? So then, you know, it will become smarter, smarter not to do silly stuff, not to do immoral stuff. Human society, to be, you know, respect the other society, other people, other family. Right. Right? We have to do the same thing on AI, not slowing down.
The progress make the solution. So, we have to go full speed with the good intent. So, build the good intent into the system… Yes. …while moving at full speed? Yes. So, like Blackstone, SoftBank has made major AI infrastructure investments. You've essentially bet the farm in the sense that you're investing across you know, the LLMs, the chips, the, you know, the data centers, et cetera.
Why not pick just one of those areas? No, I wouldn't pick just one, okay? This is the AI era starting, AI generation starting. The history is going to be created, okay? So, I don't have to run one company and be a CEO of one operating company. I can be investor. I create an ecosystem, ecosystem of group of companies that we invest.
We invest, you know, not as a passive investor. We, you know, more involved with the growth of the company, bringing synergy among our portfolio company. Usually, we are largest shareholder of our portfolio company, like 20%, 30%, 80%, okay? So, we have more involvement with each of the CEO, but only focused AI-related.
You recently said that SoftBank has begun mass-producing robots at a physical AI plant, with robots producing robots. I'm curious what these robots are being produced to do? Yes, so we are very quietly developing those, our portfolio company, family company. We have more than 30 robotics companies in our portfolio and very quietly they're preparing the time to come, okay?
But, as I said in the beginning of conversation, the humans still doing a lot of tiring job. Doing dishes like I do, exactly. Right? Who enjoy, who enjoy that, right? So, if those things were done by robots, the human can focus doing something more fun, more exciting. I think the story of you at 16 years old going over to the, you know, really with your own, you know, cleverness getting in to see the Head of McDonald's Japan and asking him one question, which is: what should you study?
And I'm just curious, what would, if someone asked you today what to study, what would the answer be? AI. AI. Yes, superintelligence. If you're interested in medicines, okay? The superintelligence for medicine make it much more productive medicine, okay? Superintelligence for the automotive. If you're interested in automotive, you know, subject.
Superintelligence with automotive as a combination be the real supercar, right? So, every subject, airplane or, you know, the whatever the business you want to get in, the specialist you want to be. It's accelerated. Yeah, you bring the superintelligence combined. Then you have the future of that subject into success.
How do you use AI in your daily life? How would you encourage CEOs to be using AI? Oh my God. I... It’s too many ways to imagine. I, myself, I'm using now three hours a day, maybe, on the week. On the weekend, I spend maybe seven hours a day on the weekend. On the weekend… And you're talking to the AI and asking questions and iterating?
Yeah. What are you doing? Yeah, I cannot now live without it, you know? Even one day I cannot live without it now. Wow. It's so productive, so exciting. And people say, hey, you know, when AI, if you use, you don't use the brain, it's the opposite. It's totally opposite, okay? It's like having a thought partner.
When you start, you know, debating, right? Discussing. If the AI says this, I say, oh, but what about this angle? Can you make it 20% more efficient? Can you do this and get that? You can debate, right? Brainstorm. It's my thought mate now. If you're an investor, what should you really be thinking about?
There's so much to learn, but what would you advise people to be focusing on? As an investor, well, I say, forget about short-term, small money. Think big, okay? The result is proportionate to your dream, okay? If your dream is so small, if your wish is so small, you still get 70% achievement. If the wish is so big, dream is so big, you still get 70% achievement.
Right. Okay? So, no matter how big is your wish or dream, you're not gonna get 100% that easily. On the average, you'll get 70%, okay? So why not think big? It seems like you think in these longer time horizons than most people. At my meeting every day, every day, we talk about, what about next 10 years, you know, plan of us, the strategy for us.
And the next day, we revise. Hey, what is 10 years from that? The next day, we again. Right. So, people say, what, is it gonna change that much? Yes, I say yes! Because in 24 hours, we have lots more, new input, more thinking. We have to adjust a lot, okay? So, but nobody knows exactly what's gonna happen in 10 years.
That's why we have to think. You know, people say, oh, 10 years later, nobody knows so let's not think about it. Let's think about next year, okay? I think it's the opposite. It's the opposite. If you don't know what's gonna happen in 10 years, don't give up thinking about it. Think, think, think! Okay?
I have one personal question to ask you, which is that you have a, you have been married for five decades, and I'm just curious, through all of the ups and downs of your career, these high highs and some, you know, very public challenges that you've had, you've had this relationship. And what has that relationship, how has that helped you succeed?
Well, look, you know, the relationship is so important, right? That you have to respect people, you have to love people, and you have to, you know, you have to feel that this is important. Well, congratulations on five decades. I think that's super impressive. I wanted to ask you one other thing, which is the SoftBank Hawks, which is one of the top baseball teams in Japan.
Curious if you would let ChatGPT pick the opening lineup? No, that... No, you wouldn't, that's too far? ...that is the job of our general manager, okay? You sure? You know, he has a lot of capability and trust by the members of the team. And that's a part of the fun, right? It's not just the calculated stuff.
Right. Well, as Steve promised, fascinating conversation with you and so many insights, and we're so grateful to you for being here. Thank you so much. Good luck to all of you, okay? Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Well, Steve, thank you for stopping by. It’s my pleasure. I hope you'll be a frequent guest on Inside Blackstone.
Easy to do. All right. Well, we just had a great conversation with Masa, such an interesting guy. When we decided to do this podcast, you said we had to get him on just because of the vision that he has and the ability to see around corners. Why is that such an unusual trait? Well, it's unusual because most people don't do it.
What's usual for him, he's technologically based. And he has the ability to see what a technology in the right hands can do commercially. And he sort of just waits to see the moment and see the person who's going to be developing it. And then he bets the house. All the chips. All the chips go on the table.
Sometimes if he's getting more and more chips because he's being successful, he'll diversify into different ways to play the same theme. As he's doing right now across the AI ecosystem. Of course. He's playing everything. Of course. And over time, he's had way more triumphs than setbacks. But he has both.
And he is incredibly resilient. Setbacks don't bother him the way they do normal people because he's on theme. Right. If he believes something, he knows it's going to happen. His timing can be a little off, doesn't trouble him. So, he's got nerves of steel. Clearly, it's a period of tremendous disruption right now.
How do you think about investing during periods like this? Well, I like change. If there wasn't change, there wouldn't be Blackstone, because everything would be in liquid securities on some kind of a 60-40 divided portfolio between debt and equity. I'm always looking for new things that are quite enduring.
I'm not interested in short-term trades, you know, like what's gonna happen? And I knew through some series of accidents that AI was gonna be a thing that was happening for a 20, 30-year run. Well, let's talk about that. I mean, you were so early to this. In 2019, you are making a gift to Oxford, even before that 2018 gift to MIT, to really focus on AI safety.
What's your take on how we need to be addressing that? Well, now, in effect, what I knew, and other people knew back in, you know, the Middle Ages there, that the cat's out of the bag. Everybody now knows, because in the front page of almost every newspaper, lead story in the media, that there are issues on AI safety that will need to be solved and addressed.
And you're optimistic that we can figure that out? I'm optimistic that the population of the world is gonna make sure that that's figured out. And the journey of exactly how to get there, you know, doesn't look as neat as it might, but I'm confident that we'll be able to address this because the technology is so useful and so powerful and we'll be able, over time, to deliver enormous benefits to society.
Masa is obviously incredibly optimistic about what all this means for humanity. Do you share that optimism? I mean you're gonna have real changes in the whole healthcare medical area, and you'll see that. It'll be profound. It'll extend life for many, many people. You'll be able to have individualized education and that'll enable anybody with a smartphone, and those are people all over the world.
People will be able to get remarkable education just tailored to them. What's that gonna mean? What's it gonna mean when, some period of time, I don't know whether it's 10 years or whatever, you're gonna start seeing robots doing things that you never would imagine. And that could increase wealth around the world, free up time for people to do other types of things.
So radical change, major change, won't come as fast as some people think. There is an evolution to it. But when it's all said and done, it will be part of a big step up. So complicated, but ultimately good for humanity. Absolutely. So, listening to Masa, one thing you heard is that he made a comment about how he thinks about investing and how he thinks about doing big things, and he said, “the result is proportionate to the dream.” And it made me think a little bit about something you've been saying for a long time where it's just as easy to do small things as it is big things, so you might as well go big.
Curious to hear how you think about that today at a moment like right now. Well, it's always the same. I've always believed that our time is the most precious resource. And so, if we're gonna do something, it should be grand and wonderful and worthy of a full-scale effort. Because I've also found that almost nothing succeeds without almost a superhuman effort.
Big successes don't happen because you dream about them only. You have to do them, and you can't do many of these things with a limited amount of effort. So, I buy into what Masa was saying with that, and I've always tried to do that here at Blackstone, and that's what makes it fun because you're part of something that's really transformative on a level not just within Blackstone, but...
But beyond. ...as part of the world. Well, Steve, always so fun to talk to you. Thank you for being here. I hope you'll come back. And thank you for joining us on this episode of Inside Blackstone. Please subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
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