저자: Azul · 외국인
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버핏이 현금을 277B달러(버크셔 시총의 약 28%)로 늘리며 주식을 순매도 중인 점을 짚는다. 이를 시장 고평가 신호로 볼 수 있다는 해석을 소개하고, 버핏지표(시총/GDP 약 200%)가 역사적으로 평균 대비 2표준편차 위라고 설명한다. 다만 버핏의 매도 이유는 단정할 수 없다고 강조하며, 극단적 베팅보다 자산배분을 소폭(예: 60%→50%) 조정하고 되돌릴 계획을 세우라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
when the greatest investor in the world is selling stocks should you and I worry and if so what can we learn from the fact that Warren Buffett is actually selling stocks and building up his cash reserves to Historic levels let's jump in and look at this towards the end of the video I'll share my thoughts but I want to begin with an article that the mle fool recently uh wrote which is titled Warren Buffett is selling stocks and loading up on cash is that a red flag for investors and they go on to say that the key points of this article is Buffett's been selling stocks much more rapidly than he's been buying this year and that's resulted in birkshire Hathway's cash balances reaching record levels and this comes amid economic uncertainty and fears that a recession might be around the corner okay so according to the article berkshire's C cash reserves are hitting all all time highs not all-time Highs but well from a dollar standpoint yes you can see almost 277 billion dollars with a be in cash and this is from a a gentleman that doesn't like holding cash if there's better Alternatives right so let's put this in perspective because from a dollar standpoint the 277 billion do is a lot but what is it historically if you look at the market market cap of Burkshire haway as a percentage so thanks to the compound for this um they show uh as of the time that this gentleman did his analysis berkshire's cash holding was a little over 20% of the market cap of Burkshire hathway and if we look at the current market U cap of birkshire which is just under a trillion dollars at $988 billion you see instead of 21% that actually goes up to 28% so pretty high historically but the the article now goes on to say is this a sign that Buffett's worried about the stock market and and the answer to that is it it it depends right Buffett has remained in stocks throughout worse and more concerning periods in the past even in wars and he doesn't sell due to economic conditions or forecast really you know Buffett loves loves to hold on to companies his favorite holding period is forever uh if he can get it but the world changes pretty quickly now so it's hard to hold on to stocks forever but he loves to invest in companies that that have a competitive advantage that have great management teams and that are likely going to endure and those competitive advantages are either going to stay as competitive as they are today or hopefully even grow okay okay so what's what's notable is Warren Buffett uh sold Apple stock which Apple is is a company with a strong economic Moe and to a lesser extent Bank of America stock and and Burkshire hathways simply holding on to the cash what they're making the point they're making here is that Warren is not deploying that cash it isn't taking big positions in in good companies and this could be a sign that Warren Buffett is not seeing tremendous opportunities perhaps because valuations are inflated so here's another mly full article it's called Warren Buffett is selling stocks here's the hidden reason why and in this article they say armchair analysts don't know for sure why Warren Buffett is selling including myself I don't know for sure Warren Warren hasn't told me I'd be more than delighted to take a call from Warren if he wanted to give me a call but he hasn't said anything publicly but he has said some things recently that can give investors Clues most importantly at his most recent Burkshire hathway annual meeting which takes place in May of every year and and Buffett answered the question I don't mind at all under current conditions building the the cash position so what is Warren mean by current positions Uh current conditions he doesn't mind holding cash under current conditions and he goes on to say when I look at Alternatives of what's available in the equity market and I look at the composition of what's going on in the world we Warren Buffett and his team find it quite attractive to hold cash so that's that's a warning so what is Warren seeing in the world does Warren see a recession coming um you know I don't think Warren really looks at the world that way he really looks at it as a company by company basis and the fact he's not redeploying this cash and he's letting it build up tells me that he's likely worried about valuation so Warren Buffett has shared with us what his favorite valuation tool is and he likes to look at the total value of the US Stock Market divided by the United States's gross domestic product and if we look at that as of the end of May 2024 that number stands at about 200% 197 % so how does this compare historically and thank you to current market valuations.com for this this is that Buffet indicator in how it how it holds up historically so the current stock market valuation divided by the GDP we saw it was 200% and you can see that Mark there so you can see historically it's really high but how is that from a standard deviation and it's actually two standard Devi iations above um let's see it would be the mean above the mean so it's two standard deviations above the average and so what that says is Warren's probably looking at the US Stock Market and saying boy it's it's price for Perfection and the companies the big companies that he's looking at potentially investing in those companies were being priced for Perfection does it mean they're overvalued not necessarily right but it means that they're being valued as if there's not going to be hiccups in the in the near future and Warren might see a tougher business environment going forward filled with more risk than the stock market in general is is giving to these companies so and I find it telling that another quote from this year's annual shareholder meeting when asked you know what's Burkshire Hathaway waiting for what are you waiting for in you make your next acquisition and what Warren Buffett said is we only swing at pitches that we like and I think we all should do that we all should be thinking you know there's a time in general I think most of us should have a long-term asset allocation and stick to that long-term asset allocation now there are times depending on where you're at in your life and what's happening in the economy where maybe prices have gone low that's not this time and maybe you're at a point in your life where you can take a little more risk now I don't like big moves I don't like making big bets like now the Market's overvalued now the Market's undervalued and I'm going all in but is it might it be okay to tweak things a little bit based on your ability to accept risk based on your ability to recover if you're wrong and based on where the stock market is so let's say on average maybe somebody let's say a hypothetical person is 60% in equities and they thought the stock market was undervalued could it be if they're at a point in their life where they could be 70% equities could they make a move like that and would I as a financial adviser say that that's a stupid move well it depends on their situation I don't know your situation so I can't this isn't financial advice for you I can't comment on your situation because I don't know you but in general somebody that could accept 70% risk but they choose not to they feel 60% is a better long-term allocation for them could they make a slight modification I think they could right this probably is the opposite the current uh Market is probably the opposite of that if in general you think hey 60% is the right asset allocation for another hypothetical person and they think the stock market might be uh overvalued would it hurt them to move down to 5050 for a 12 Monon period for an 18mon period for a 24mon period and they say you know what if I was wrong if that pullback on valuations doesn't happen I'm going to get back to being fully invested and for them that means 60% asset allocation I think they could right so small tweaks one way or the other based on what your views are of the market I think is okay big moves I think people are more likely to get hurt and then it's also important to make the decision when are you going to reverse that if you turn out to be wrong so small tweaks a game plan to reverse it if it turns out not to be right and making good decisions like this is the reason I made this video here which are seven things to stop doing in your 50s and 60s to enjoy the time until you get to retire I hope you enjoy that video
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