저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
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잭슨홀 회의 앞두고 S&P500 방향에 대한 불확실성을 강조. 골드만삭스 전망에 따라 연준이 9월 75bp 대신 50bp로 완화적 기조를 보일 가능성을 언급. 주간 차트상 역헤드앤숄더 구조, 410 이탈 시 하락·420 회복 시 450 상승 시나리오 제시. 옵션 포지셔닝상 금요일 4 20 부근 마감을 예상하나 확신은 없다고 함.
다듬은 글
hello youtube today we're going to be focusing on jackson hole which is coming up in only two days but it kicks off tomorrow so as we get closer to that time which is going to be on friday when jerome's powell speaks i am wondering who is wrong going into this event because someone is going to be really caught offside here we have the 10-year treasury note up that we were talking about yesterday so yesterday we largely focused on the bear narrative or the bear case and that's because we closed down but today the market is closing up snapping a three-day losing streak so here the question is do we have a cup and handle which is going to break bullish or do we have a head and shoulders which is actually going to tell us that the rate of rate hikes is actually going to stop going as aggressive as before here we can note that goldman sachs is telling us that you are wrong if you think that the fed is going to be hiking by 75 basis points as it sticks to its slow down at jackson hole goldman sachs says i would much rather be in the camp of goldman sachs than of retail and i say that because right now uh two out of three retail traders of roughly a thousand votes thinks that we're gonna be down this week which means that they think jerome's gonna be hawkish or is gonna take stocks down i don't know um when in doubt i like to look at what the smart money is saying these guys control wall street and their notes here just tell us that uh they're expecting the federal reserve to stay dovish at his jackson hole gathering this week davis is the key word they're going to remain data dependent and the fed is unlikely to lift rates by 0.75 in september it may go for smaller hikes instead it said officials will likely push a slower pace of tightening and avoid a recession its strata just said this is really important because today we saw a repricing of the futures again now pricing in roughly 60.5 chance of a 75 basis point hike in september from about 45 on tuesday so it's not just retail it's also institutions which are now betting that we're going to have a 75 basis point hike in september this is important because the rate or the trajectory here from goldman sachs tells us that they've been dead accurate so far everything that they have called has been a hundred percent accurate they called for 25 in march 50 in may 75 in june and july and now they're calling for 50 in september uh i think they're calling for 25 25 sorry 50 and then 25 25 into the end of the year which is where we're gonna start to flatten out we're gonna get to a terminal rate by the end of 22 to 3.5 percent that's how we get there so by going from a 75 to 50 to 25 that would catch the market a little bit offside and we could definitely get that uh dovish reaction because uh people are betting that we're gonna be getting a 75.
a 50 would be a surprise now and that would likely be interpreted as dovish and um i would note that when everyone's looking one way um it might be easier for us to go the other way and what i'm basically talking about is team risk reward versus team probability team risk reward means that right now there is no even there is no side which has an unfair advantage team probability is that the objects in motion tend to stay in motion and right now as we note here the s p went up by 20 percent went down by five and it snapped its three-day losing streak the last time we had a three-day losing streak goes back to oh my goodness that's right or we carved out the bottom we have three red days here where we close lower than we open with hollow sorry solid candles and uh now we snap that we got three here in a row we got a green one the only other time we put in more than three was over here as we noted yesterday so the big question is are we going to go up or are we gonna go down um i don't know and i know i've been saying that a lot late and that's just because at a certain point it's better to react than it is to predict so i prefer to react to what is going to happen between the green line and the red line then to try to predict where we're going to go i know at what point i am wrong and i know at what point i am correct so let's go through and have a look at a few more things and we're going to go forward here so what's really important to keep in mind is that jerome powell looks at core pce we're going to be getting this reading on friday at 8 30 a.m right now the again the projections are for 4.3 in 2022 2.7 in 2023 and 2.3 in 2024.
does it really have to go to four percent if next year we're expecting we're going to be at 2.7 i don't think so and that's why i think that he's gonna lay out what goldman sachs said so we can also note that jerome said he wants to slow the economy not crash the economy and today we saw that housing bubble bursts get louder july permits for house sales data show the worst since before the lockdowns look at all these big fat red bars that is not good the trend is clearly down we are seeing the contraction and what jerome said is that the the um we're not going to feel or see the rate hikes until later which means that why would they want to go super super aggressive when right now their internal projections tell us that we're going to be at four basically three then right back to two i think they're more likely going to keep interest rates flat they'll keep them higher for longer and then they'll lower them later right now the market is expecting that we're going to be going down doing rate cuts in 2023.
that's where i think jerome is going to toe the line but it's not going to be at jackson hole i believe he's going to talk about that at the next fomc meeting which is going to be in september why because there's an asterisk here the asterisk means that this is a meeting associated with a summary of economic projections and if you remember what happened at the july meeting jerome kept pointing back and back and back to what the scp the summary of economic projections he's not going to be providing that on friday what will he be what will he be providing he'll be writing a commentary he'll be talking that's it it's the same thing as he did during the press conference in july look at the date here july 27th uh goldman sachs is expecting that we're going to get the same as what we saw here on july 27th what happened oh baby that was the bottom we went from 390 to 430 or a 10 rip that was a beautiful rally um so again we're already seeing that there's a slowdown he doesn't want to crash the world uh he wants to slow it down and uh if you look here now um the bowl case in the bare case like i've mentioned for uh ever since the weekend where we say the stage is set the stage is still set i don't know who's gonna win if we fail to get a dxy and tnx breakout that is one of the top things i am looking for and today we saw a notable tick down in the dollar uh oh sorry earlier in the day we were down so after we saw those housing numbers come out we ticked down here by roughly half a percent we did double top so i'm not sure this is going to actually be a double top here or if it's going to be a cup and handle where we're actually going to keep going higher but the dollar did back off that's notable in terms of the bolt case all we have to do is just punch up from here and we're going to probably be going up uh looking at our key dates we talked about core pce remember this is the fed's favorite inflation gauge so they don't look at cpi they look at pce why because it fits the story they want to tell they don't care about cpi because no one drives no one eats that is the story of the fed all they care about is the pce tomorrow tomorrow we might see some headlines out of jackson hole from non from from other fomc members not jerome and then we also have gdp and initial jobless games of tomorrow so this is the most important data points of the week it's uh it's 8 30 and 10 am so it's time to preserve our mental capital and be prepared to react to the data and the reason why is because if we look over here to let me get back here to my spy chart on the weekly i believe that the next move is going to be 10 so the 10 move is going to be either 10 down or we go from roughly uh 412 back down here to about i don't know the lows of the year or we're gonna go up to 450.
so if we go up to 450 or down to 390 we're roughly the midpoint here and what we want to ask ourselves is do we want to make that hard penny or the easy dollar i'm stealing i'm stealing this from mark intervening which means that if there's going to be a 10 move right 10 and uh s p normally does not move more than 2 in one day we could move 2 on friday but 2 out of 10 is only 20 which means we can capture 80 of the upside or the downside after we see the reaction to what jerome says at 10 a.m on friday so for me i am less concerned about trying to predict where we're gonna go i want to react so i am not really particularly motivated to try to predict where we're going to go although i do have a thesis i would rather react to the incoming data so we're going to wrap up in a minute here we're going to look at the charts and i'm going to tell you exactly where we need to go to know we are right or we are wrong so as of right now we printed 411.39 on the weekly chart here this is still technically an inverse head and shoulders which means that the onus is still on the bears to not only make us go sideways because the momentum has been building up for the bulls they have to make us close below 410 closing below 410 and then confirming by getting below 407 which is our low of the month means that that's pretty much lights out for the bulls jerome is going to be interpreted as being hawkish and we're likely going to go down on the flip side if we're able to get back above 420.76 on a weekly closing basis that is my psychology chart and that is my base case right now that we're going to go back up to 450.
i am not smart enough to know what jerome's gonna say i'm smart enough to know this is not a time for me to be in the market i'm gonna wait i'm gonna be reactive and i'm gonna watch and see what happens here another way of thinking of it is again looking back here to spy looking on the daily chart like we have been for a while what did we do we went up by 20 steps or 20 and then down by five and we bounced perfectly off the green line we got the curl here and if we do start going back up i think the bears are going to be reluctant to believe it because they've been reluctant the whole time so another thing i want to look at is uh where s p closed and where our algorithm predicted we were going to go i've been teasing this out very briefly and i'm doing that because we're getting a lot closer to our relaunch what i want to show you here is um the s p closing price was four one three point six our predicted close here was four one three point one and we predicted that qqq will close at three one four point eight seven giga q closed at 315.01 why is that important because there was not really much doubt where are we going to close today for me we're off by about 50 cents for spy or 0.1 percent and we're within cents on qqq so this is also notable because when we look to the options chain as i have been for the last couple of days here what do we have well four one three was also max payne we note here uh four one four down to four one one even four ten man it's busy hundreds of thousands of poets and they also burnt this open interest so what does that mean means they did their job they burnt everything over here on the call side so they burnt everything from uh they burnt half of the 414 puts and they burn every single one of these they all got torched over here on the call side by closing at 413.6 they were able to pay up the 413s but they did not pay the 414s which means we pretty much closed a max payne 2.
option sellers are in control who's one of the biggest option sellers goldman sachs so what does that mean uh they're they're they're they're playing their playbook and they're getting paid oh goodness another reason why we want to pay attention to this is because um there is a divergence between what is happening with the flow right now the flow on the week is bearish we note that we have 1.7 puts bought for every call bot and these are only for orders over a hundred thousand dollars because in my opinion these are the only orders that really matter so there's definitely a tilt which is quite uh bearish here when we look to the friday chain for spy and we note that the bulls actually made a little bit more today than the bears and option sellers were in control what what's here for friday oh goodness we get 419 and we get 415 call spread with what with open interest we got it here at uh 4 15 and 420 and it is larger than what we see on the put side there is only one strike here which has about a hundred thousand but there is open interest so although it is fairly deadlocked i would still say that roughly four one two four one three is max payne as of right now for friday so what does that mean it means the bulls appear to be more motivated but um i don't know who's gonna actually take control i think we're actually gonna close around 4 20 on friday why that's what my psychology chart says it doesn't mean i'm uh i'm going all in or that it's a guarantee it's just a prediction but like i said i would rather react than to predict but i'm seeing more evidence here that the bulls might be a little bit better positioned than the bears last thing i just want to go through is looking at uh looking at qqq because we looked at we looked at that yesterday too and what's really important is that we're watching this relative low here or 410.64 on sp y if another look at qqq where are we ah so qqq dragged us down and it lost that area we're looking at roughly 315.
sorry uh 318.52 so we're looking at roughly the slow right here that's where we started the week off so if we're able to reclaim this 318 area and get back inside the gap i think we're going to shoot up to the red line and then continue higher this is important because as we look at qqq we look here at our weekly chart we note that ah so we broke our falling wedge we did a perfect back test we're still trending up we exited bear market territory or above three two six we entered a new bull market by being about three two three then we fell back below what are we forming a cup and handle right we have a cup and handle forming inside of here i don't know if it's going to be correct but that's what's forming it's not formed up so with that said if you if you want to watch more i encourage you to watch the weekend deep dive which i prepared over the weekend which tells you that the stage is set and we have to be very mindful that this week is likely the most important week for the rest of the year with that said i want to thank you for watching and i very much look forward to seeing you tomorrow and if you want to tune in on friday we're going to go through all the psychology charts and more thank you for watching look forward to seeing you tomorrow
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