저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 실질 소득 하락과 생활비 부담을 지적하며 경기침체 체감을 말한다. 금리 인하는 주식시장 고점과 자산 버블 상황에서 중앙은행이 하지 않았다고 본다. 반도체·매그니피선트7 등 인기 섹터가 향후 수년간 부진할 것이며, 가치주와 신흥국이 상대적으로 강세를 보일 것으로 전망한다. 매그니피선트7은 보유하지 않겠다고 밝힌다. 금은 시장 하락 시 다른 자산보다 덜 떨어지겠지만 함께 하락할 수 있다고 본다. 실질 기준으로 미국 주식시장이 최소 50% 하락할 것으로 확신한다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
I'm embarrassed to say uh the economy is not in recession for me because compared to the last few years now on my deposits I get 5% return and before I got less than 1% so for the rich people like me the economy is not in recession but for the lower income recipients say you can structure your Society in the 20% lowest income recipients 40% lowest 60 for the 60% of Americans they wages and their income inflation adjusted and inflation adjusted by people like John Williams who actually calculate how much the household spends on this and that ends the world or the Copo COK index in in these terms 60% of Americans are less well off than their parents were 30 40 years ago and the last few years have been disastrous the FED will tell you oh now we've beaten inflation nonsense the cost of living today is approximately is 30% higher than in 2018 that hasn't come down I agree that right now prices are going up at the lower rate than before but the prices haven't come down the home prices are still high and you pointed out talked about home prices the result of high home prices is that most Americans can't afford to buy them that is the problem they can't even afford to buy the groceries Irving Fisher who I regard as one of the most important Economist I'm not talking about his character because he was a president of the eugenic society in America but I'm talking about his uh ability as a monetarist and as an economist not as an investor he uh wrote about the monetary illusion the money illusion it's very important to understand when you print money for a while people feel wealthier and so for and there's a there is a boom during the process of money printing but very shortly it changes and that is the the viciousness of inflation you can have for a while home prices and stocks going up and then suddenly consumer prices go up and suddenly is go is not and this was observed by Copernicus already because he was actually he he wrote economic books as well it's not that the price level goes up evenly in a society no goes up here and then there and so for so members of society get hurt at different times but the FED one quality they have they will always protect their friends on Wall Street that you can B upon what a single uh worker does in the factory in Middle America they don't give us about that you can be sure I think this is a very intelligent question and we have to consider that there is no clearcut answer to this question for the real economy for the people who work every day they are Farm they are work in grocery stores they are people that borrowed money to buy a home they have children they pay fees to send the children to schools or to kindergarten and so forth and so on for these people interest rates should be cut but I've never seen a central bank cutting interest rates when the stock market is near alltime High when Bitcoins was moving up strongly when gold was making new highs and when there was still a huge quantity of liquidity in the system there's no liquidity crisis at the present time it's just that the liquidity has begun I wrote now three reports about turning points in asset markets uh whatever happens I think we are at an very important juncture where stocks of the popular sectors semiconductors the bang stocks the Magnificent 7 and so forth they are going to sleep for the next few years and they will sleep very deeply in other words by going down and other stocks value stocks will tend to go up and other markets around the world notably emerging economies will start to move up in their performance because I just so this is what the history books Financial history book Bank credit analyst and I follow their services for the last 50 years it's a very interesting say organization like Alpine macro they do macro work they published a a chart showing the market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven stocks and the market cap of all Chinese stocks including Hong Kong Magnificent Seven have a higher market value then the market of a country with more than a billion people and some very successful companies that's why the American state department is always em embargo these embargoing these companies well my view is simple and I'm not a technology analyst but in the world of Investments there are some principles that have in the long run uh provided higher rates of returns say Warren Buffett and Charlie Monger have not been much more intelligent than other people but they have been more disciplined and more focused and especially more patient than other people and their philosophy was always to buy assets when their market price was selling at the discount of the intrinsic value of these assets say you have property companies the property companies they have a value and net asset value but the property stocks they frequently drop way below the value of the existing properties and at that stage they become attractive similar L grow stocks they occasionally become attractive like technology stocks in the early 1990s were very cheap but technology stocks in America in the Years 2003 2005 were cheap because investors at the time were focusing on other sectors and the NASDAQ had declined by 70% but this is not the case now now technology stocks must deliver miraculous returns to justify the evaluation miraculous and I can tell you in technology and in everything you'd always be surprised how many new technologies come up and compete with the existing Technologies so I wouldn't touch a single magnificent seven stock not one I don't have anyone but I want to remind my readers that or viewers that when the market when the asset markets go up everything goes up but some assets go up more than others when the asset markets go down the tendency is for everything to go down but we some assets going down much more than others so now I can argue well in this environment you should own gold yes but I tell you if the asset markets go down meaningfully gold will probably also go down but less than the other assets if I knew the Catalyst you would know it as well and everybody else would know it we never know precisely in advance what the catalyst could be but I can tell you if I look at all uh the potential Wars that we have I look at say nobody in the world and even experts in real estate expected commercial buildings to collapse in the US by 50% nobody expected that and it happened and I know many many people who are involved in real estate they billionaires they own properties they like no incredible quantities but it happened and you never know why and I'm not saying the US market will go down by 50% in nominal terms but I think it will go down at least by 50% in real terms inflation adjusted that I I'm quite sure about minimum when the Japanese Market was 50% of the world's stock market capitalization in 89 I placed many bets including in put options that the market in Japan would drop by 50% I would I was much too conservative it dropped by 70%
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