저자: BillGross · 외국인
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결론: 클린테크는 1조 달러 규모의 사업 기회이며, 태양광을 중심으로 한 재생에너지 투자가 화석연료 투자를 앞질렀다. [창업 배경과 경력] 15세 때 1973년 에너지 위기를 겪으며 대체에너지에 관심을 가졌고, 고교 시절 태양열 장치 설계도를 Popular Science에 4달러에 팔아 1만 부를 판매했다. 이후 소프트웨어 회사를 Lotus에, 교육 소프트웨어 회사를 Vivendi에 매각했다. [Idealab 실적] 1996년 설립한 기술 인큐베이터 Idealab은 150여 개 회사를 창업시켰고, 회사당 초기 25만 달러를 투자했다. 60곳은 실패, 90곳은 성공했으며 45곳이 IPO나 M&A로 성공했고 10억 달러 이상 기업이 7곳, 일자리 1만 개 이상을 창출했다고 주장했다. [시장 규모 주장] 현재 전 세계 에너지 사용량은 약 15테라와트이며 2050년에는 약 50테라와트로 늘어날 전망이다. 1인당 약 2,000와트 수준이며 미국은 그보다 훨씬 많이 쓴다. 현재 에너지의 85%가 화석연료이며, 태양광은 필요한 것보다 훨씬 많은 잠재력(약 15,000테라와트 수준)을 가진다고 설명했다. [태양광 가격·성장 지표] 태양광 패널 가격은 1976년 와트당 79.4달러에서 현재 약 0.42달러로 하락했고, 30년 넘게 연 10% 가까이 떨어졌다고 말했다. 2002년 가장 공격적인 전망이던 2010년 설치량 1GW는 실제로 2010년 17GW, 작년 58GW로 크게 초과했다. [투자 흐름] 2010년을 기점으로 재생에너지 투자가 화석연료 투자를 앞질렀다. 유가가 떨어져도 재생에너지 투자는 계속 늘고 있다고 강조했다. [Idealab 기술별 사업] - 폐열 회수: 디젤 배기 등에서 열을 전기로 바꾸는 스털링 엔진(저온 효율 33%, 세계 기록이라 주장) - PV 부스터: 태양광 패널을 2축 추적해 출력을 31% 높이는 장치, 상업용 지붕과 주차장 카포트에 적용 가능 - 열 저장 배터리: 암석을 500°C로 가열해 에너지를 저장하며, 배터리보다 약 50배 저렴하다고 주장. 하와이 출시 계획 - 마이크로그리드: 태양열 기반 24시간 전력 공급 시스템, 파사데나에서 시연 완료, 하와이 코나 시설에서 시연 예정 [전망] 이번 세기에 대부분의 에너지가 재생에너지로 전환될 것이며, 파트너·유통업체·투자자를 찾고 있다고 밝혔다. 특정 상장 종목이나 자산 가격에 대한 직접적인 매수·매도 언급은 없었다.
다듬은 글
it's always so great to have so so many passionate people so many of you have been passionate about clean technology and about sustainability in all of its many forms um to combine that passion with somebody who I just think of as the entrepreneurs entrepreneur uh the founder CEO of Ideal lab is just really uh brings a whole perspective of this that I'm very excited for you to hear please join me and welcome the CEO of ID lab and a startup within that called Edison bill gross Bill thank you very much good morning it's great to be here today I'm excited to tell you why I believe that clean technology is a trillion dollar business opportunity now I know I'm preaching a little bit to the choir with this audience because many of you already believe this but I'd like to share with you my perspective and how I came to this conclusion I came to it quite early I started dreaming about clean technology when I was 15 years old I grew up in the San Fernando Valley in Southern California and it was right at the height of the energy crunch it was 1973 and I don't know how many of you remember this but you had a you only could buy $5 of gasoline per day it was rationed and you only could buy gasoline on odd or even numbered days based on the last digits of your license plate so there were lines down the street I remember Ventura Boulevard in San FR Valley there were lines down the street for people waiting to buy gasoline and even at that early age I began thinking there's got to be another way there's got to be some way that we can get ourselves off of fossil fuels so we're not so reliant on that for the lifestyle that we have so I did what I could in in uh Jun in high school and 10th grade I started a little company called solar devices and I started making little kits and plans to make Sol devices to concentrate sunlight and convert heat energy to mechanical energy and I made plans that I sold in the back of Popular Science magazine for $4 and I sold 10,000 of those plans which helped me pay for my way through college actually and it was my first taste both at business at entrepreneurship but also in renewable energy and when I graduated from college the IBM PC came out I started writing software started a software company that I sold to Lotus started an educational software company that I sold to vendi and I really had the entrepreneurial bug I really realized what happens when you get a group of people together and you give them a high Equity stake and you have a unified goal a shared goal and Mission that you actually unlock human potential I learned that about entrepreneurship and it was so powerful to me I wanted to find a way to scale that so I started a company called idealab it was a technology incubator this was 1996 and it was very risky idea at that time it was kind of poooo at the time but it was to try and get all the resources all the shared resources under one roof to try and help companies succeed I wanted to try and have entrepreneurship Factory and over the years it's now 20 years we just had our 20th anniversary we started more than 150 companies in many different areas and across all those companies we helped we invested the first $250,000 in each company so we would brainstorm ideas for products that are needed services that are needed in clean tech and other areas we would invest the first $250,000 and then we helped the companies raise additional outside Capital so across the years we helped the companies raise more than 3 and a halfon out of those 150 companies 60 of them failed so we learned a lot from those failures but 90 of them had succeeded and 45 of them went on to have successful IPOs and Acquisitions seven of them went on to become more than $1 billion doll companies we're most proud of the fact that we created more than 10,000 jobs because that whole idea of scaling entrepreneurship was the thing I was so passionate about and what we focused on were big disruptive opportunities so what's the biggest disruptive opportunity there is well I think the clean tech opportunity is that and and here's why across the Earth everybody would like to live like us the whole earth uses 15 terawatts so 15 terawatts is being used by all s billion people on the planet so about 2,000 watts per person for every man woman and child alive everywhere on Earth 2,000 Watts all day long every day now of course you know that's not evenly distributed some people on the Earth only have 10 watts and we in this room have much much more than 2,000 watts in this room well in the United States we use about four times the average so closer to 8,000 watts per person in this room probably another three times that cuz we fly and we travel and and uh even the very fact that we're here with air conditioning and so on we probably use quite a bit more than 8,000 watts per person every day but 8,000 watts per person every day is like having 10 horses running full out for you all day long to give you the comfort and conveniences that we have in our life so that's just shows you how big a part energy is to our lifestyle and like I said everybody else would be like to be like us we use a lot more than the rest of the world and they're going to catch up so coming up with a way to create that energy cost effectively is an enormous opportunity so in the United States just as an example of how we love our fossil fuels we now have 1.8 billion 1.8 people per household but 1.9 cars per household we have more cars per household than people in the United States and the wor the rest of the world's catching up China's catching up with a lot lot more Vehicles vehicle sales that are just through the roof by 2050 so today we use 15 terawatts but with population growth and with more normalization of energy usage the the total World estimate is 50 terawatts so we have 15 terawatts today 50 terawatts in 2050 how are we going to make up that Gap right now that Gap is made up by 85% of our energy use is fossil fuels and you can see from this graph of use of fossil fuels how fast it took off after World War III there was a big burst in our lifestyle and in our comfort and in all of our uh productivity by our increasing use of fossil fuels after World War II but what are we going to do about all the fossil fuel burning where we going to put it well right now we put it all in our atmosphere this thin sliver of our atmosphere is the trash bin for all the fossil fuels we burn and to help visualize that because we hear all these numbers about parts per million of carbon in the atmosphere and how many pounds we're putting up and it just sounds like a huge number I tried to compare it to the trash that we produce on Earth so on Earth we produce 7 billion pounds of trash per day so about one pound of trash per person so every every day we're making about one pound of trash that we put in landfills somewhere on Earth but in that same day every person on Earth puts 31 pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere so we're throwing 30 T 31 times as much stuff into the atmosphere as we're putting away into our landfills for every person on Earth every day that's got to stop we're going to fill up that space that's thin sliver can't continue to hold all of that so how do we make up that 35 terawatt Gap at not throw all that stuff in the atmosphere there's only six ways it's nuclear geothermal wind tidal power biomass and solar and all of those can contribute several terawatts to the 35 terawatt Gap but one of them contributes 15,000 terawatts to that 35 tatt Gap and that's solar solar is the one thing that provides dramatically more than the earth will ever need no matter how much population so finding a way to effectively harness that is this huge opportunity fortunately Ely the sun is the most distributed natural resource there is pretty much everywhere where there's people there's Sunshine so it's the it's very fairly distributed for us if we can harness it effectively the now about the growth of the opportunity the exponential growth of solar has completely been dramatic exceeded all expectations you can see this graph here of global PV installations also the price drop is equally dramatic the cost have been going down for 10% per year for more than 30 years there was a magical Point well back when solar panels first came out they were $79.4 per watt in 1976 there was a a hope that someday they would cross $1 per watt and that would be magical and that happened a few years ago I just came back from the solar power international Show in Las Vegas last week and they're at 42 cents a watt 42 cents a watt for solar panels that's just unbelievable how much opportunity that that brings the the the um uh insulations are going up dramatically globally by country it's going up dramatically and it's not only just solar that's going up wind energy look at the exponential on wind energy Global lithium ion battery Market that's going exponentially so all of the things solar wind storage all these opportunities are really going at exponential rates just one more example of how fast it's going relative to forecast back in 2002 some of the most aggressive forecasts of how big the solar Market would be in 2010 was 1 gwatt a year in actuality in 2010 that goal was exceeded by 7 17 times it was 17 gaw in 2010 and last year it was 58 times 58 gaw last year so it's going Beyond everybody's most hopeful expectations made back at the turn of the century the renewable Investments are happening at a faster Pace than fossil fuels it crossed over in 2010 and going forward renewable Investments are going to dominate The Green bars here are renewable Investments and the gray bars are fossil fuel Investments fossil fuel Investments going down renewable going dramatically up and most importantly in all Past Times when oil prices dropped renewable Investments dropped precipitously this is the first time we're seeing right now where oil prices dropped and renewable Investments keep on going up finally people have figured out that this opportunity is so big that they're continuing to invest even as oil prices drop that's what's so dramatic and exciting about this it's great news it's really great news so what is IDE lab working on I'm working on a whole bunch of different things we're starting companies in as many areas as we can and I'd love to talk to you here more about new things we could do together I'm working on waste heat recovery boosting PV panel output new types of installation methods to reduce cost new solar concentration methods new types of energy storage and micro grids one of the companies we're working on makes a Sterling engine that is 33% efficient at low temperature it's world record setting efficiency and what that allows us to do is take waste heat from diesel exhaust or other exhaust manufacturing processes and make extra electricity another company we're working on PV booster we just announced this company last week at solar power international is a individual two AIS tracker for PV panels that boost the output by 31% this is great for commercial rooftop solar I learned this fact that I couldn't believe there's 50 billion square feet of commercial Rooftop in the United States 50 billion square feet and only 2% has solar on it right now so there's 49 billion square feet of opportunity to do something like this to make solar more cost effective right on top of our buildings in addition this can be used on carports to make solar more efficient on carports and for carports there's 100 billion Square F feet of parking lots in the United States alone so by putting a two AIS tracker on a PV panel you can effectively pay for the carport right now carports are too expensive but with this technology you can make carports affordable another technology we're working on is something that I learned about from the Hawaii Verge conference in Hawaii where Renewables have huge energy pen penetration there's a problem at noon every day where there's sometimes too much energy there's sometimes too much energy from PV so there's a problem called curtailment where you have to get rid of the excess energy and some days in Hawaii about 200 days a year there's 140 megawatts of curtailed energy renewable energy that has to be thrown away we need energy storage so we can take that renewable energy and use it whenever we need it so I'm working on a new solution because chemical batteries are way too expensive for bulk energy storage chemical batteries are fine for an electric vehicle dense single use energy storage but for both bulk energy storage for the grid batteries are still way too expensive so we're working on a thermal battery that can store heat and then convert it back to electricity we heat rocks to 500 degrees C we can then store energy 50 times cheaper than batteries here's a comparison of what batteries cost for energy storage and what this rock technology costs for energy storage it's so dramatically cheaper so we're working to roll this out in Hawaii to try and solve part of that curtailment problem and then use that elsewhere in the world as Renewables take bigger impact bigger effect and and finally working on micro grids one of the biggest problems with renewable energy is everybody wants their power 24/7 and you can't count on solar or wind to be available when you need it so by concentrating solar heating the rocks and producing energy on a 247 basis we can finally have completely dispatchable solar energy another technology we're working on at idb so these and many other things are just examples of some of the huge opportunities for that last technology we completed a full scale demonstration in Pasadena and we'll be rolling out a demonstration in Hawaii at the nelha facility in Kona next finally in summary we will get to Maj majority renewable energy this Century there'll be many different solutions to get there just those are just some of the things that we're working on but there's so many different things including all the ones that are being shown here at the show it's not just about saving the planet it's also an enormous Economic Opportunity and I personally believe that entrepreneurship is one of the best ways to mobilize great minds to tackle this problem the opportunities in renewable energy are just staggering I'd love to talk to all of you here about more ways we could work together to make this happen we're looking for partners and Distributors and investors and ideas to try and make more things happen to disrupt this space please feel free to contact me my email address is Bill ideal.com thank you very much you've been a great audience
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