저자: BillMiller및GarethSoloway · 외국인
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비트코인 장기 강세·단기 조정 전망을 다룬 2022년 3월 인터뷰 영상이다. 러시아 외환보유액 구성(달러 16%, 유로 32%, 금 22%)을 근거로 비트코인이 비통제 자산으로서 매우 강세라고 주장했다. 비트코인 외 다른 코인은 벤처 투자 성격으로 봤다. 연준의 긴축 전환으로 금리 인상과 대차대조표 축소가 진행 중이며, 경기침체 우려가 가격에 반영되는 변동성 구간이라고 봤다. 경제지표(고용, 기업 이익, 세수, 신용카드 사용)는 강하므로 침체는 당장 임박하지 않다고 평가했다. 채권은 실질금리가 여전히 마이너스라 매력이 없다고 봤다. 러시아 침공 직후 지정가 매수로 비트코인·솔라나·카르다노를 담았고, 금 ETF는 갭상승 고점에서 매도했다는 경험을 공유했다. 역행 매매가 유효했다고 설명했다. Gareth Soloway는 비트코인 단기 저항을 42,000달러, 이후 47,000달러, 52,000달러로 제시했다. 중기적으로는 2만 달러 부근까지 하락 가능성이 크다고 봤고, 그 구간에서 장기 매집을 고려한다고 밝혔다. 상승 추세선을 이탈하면 보유 롱을 청산한다는 손절 조건도 언급했다. 리스크로는 연준의 공격적 긴축, 우크라이나 사태 장기화, 제재 확대에 따른 변동성을 꼽았다. 출연자 전망 요약: 비트코인 단기 상방 제한(42~47K), 중기 2만 달러 하락 가능, 장기 강세.
다듬은 글
i i i think that basically if you look at russia right now russia has 16 of their 640 billion dollars of reserves in dollars they have 32 percent in euros so they have almost 50 percent of their reserves in currencies that are controlled by people who want to do them harm now i think we should do them harm but the point is from russia's point of view that's not a great position to be in they have 22 percent in gold and that's the only one only part of their reserves which other countries can't control so i think if you have if you're a country out there that is a non-reserve currency there's about a hundred of them you might think about saying you know what maybe we should have something else out there that other countries cannot harm us with and that is that is impervious to uh to inflation or or to um to being manufactured in greater quantities and so i think it's i think it's very bullish for bitcoin particularly the rest of crypto is different i think i think bitcoin is unique and the rest of crypto should be considered as sort of venture investments because they're all trying to solve uh other other problems yeah there's there's emerging opportunities in the in the market we're at the beginning uh early stages of a regime change so from a from a fed easing accommodative bond buying a set of policies to one that's the opposite so draining the fed balance sheet are down raising interest rates and that that raises the possibility or a possibility that they can make a mistake i mean they're not flawless obviously and so you've got what's happening with volatility is you're getting some probability of a mistake a recession priced in and that's that's uh i think something that you're going to have to live with for a while until it's clear that doesn't happen yeah so are you in the recession camp you know we we are we are all watching the yield curve we all have memories of the past decade when the fed tightened too quickly and have to keep undoing that so do you think investors should be braced for that possibility or do you think that it's not going to happen it's just creating some entry points you know one of the things that we try and do is try and not make forecasts about what's going to happen just try to understand what is happening so what is happening is the fed is signaling a tighter monetary policy what is happening is the economy is very strong unemployment's low earnings for many companies are at records state tax receipts are are rising way above expectations credit card usage is high and so all of those things the stimulus is tremendous so all those things say that the the the economy is strong and the recession is not on the horizon doesn't mean it can't appear but that's what's going on and now and we're trying to invest in this particular environment and not one that we really can't forecast well real rates are still sharply negative when especially if you just use headline inflation so i don't think the bond market is is attractive at all i think the fed wants to tighten they would probably like to see the curve steep and moderately and we just don't see any value in in bonds here one more question on that do you have a point of view on whether it'd be better for them to run down the balance sheet some say maybe that would help long end rates go up it would unflatten the curve but who knows right or would you prefer to see more rate hikes 50 basis point rate hikes anything there that you're watching well you know we've been wondering why they're still buying mortgage-backed securities into this kind of a housing market so i think both of those things in moderation make sense to letting the letting the letting the balance sheet drain off with some of the securities that they own as well as moderate tightening they're taught they're signaling very strongly that that they're not going to try and tighten too much they're going to be sensitive to a recession doesn't mean they'll get it right but i think they're looking at the right thing here was your dick when the invasion started right and what i had done that night is i put out limit orders because it occurred i figured it could occur while i was sleeping i wouldn't be able to react so i put out a limit order to buy bitcoin polka dots solana even some more cardano and sure enough they got hit which was beautiful and i was anticipating the same thing you anticipated overreaction the panic you've seen panic before how it crushes assets risk assets initially and then what you see is them bouncing back so that's exactly what i did you did the right thing in fact the next morning i had gld which is gold the gold etf and i actually unloaded it on the gap up at the highs because i also expected it to come back down and again these are extreme so you always want to go counter kind of trend or counter thought process and that's exactly what you did there and that was that was 100 correct so go go counter trend and you'll usually be right and in terms of bitcoin what we're seeing here is a beautiful pop today my feeling on it is that you've now got more sanctions with swift being introduced or taken away from some of the some of the russian banks this is becoming a longer drawn out conflict more sanctions on russian oligarchs and that's going to make people more intrigued about okay well does russian oligarchs do they start buying bitcoin do they diversify out of rubles and out of currencies where they can actually move those those bitcoin assets to different locations and access them still and then you also have the plight of the ukrainians where it you know it's hard to get out of the country with suit bags suitcases full of money but it's a lot easier to go somewhere else access your bitcoin as well so i think you're seeing a little bit of that vibe of okay bitcoin makes a lot of sense when there's geopolitical risk out there i think it is i mean you know again my long-term thesis for bitcoin is bullish yes i do believe eventually we will see another leg down to 20 000.
my very short term as i mentioned i bought some bitcoin on that dip so very short term i think there could be a little bit more upside but per the chart i'm looking at at an upside that could be capped around 42 000 that's my first kind of resistance we're getting very very close and then if we get through 42 000 you have this upsloping trend line you can see how it hit it right here if we come back to it it's around 47 000 that would be your next resistance if it somehow can push through 47 then you're talking about 52 000 as being your next likely target now again this is all short-term movement we're inside of a bigger bear cycle in my opinion so eventually we will see the fed tightening more and i think by the way that's part of it right so it you know as horrendous as the invasion is and people getting hurt there's a chance for the equity markets to say okay the federal reserve may not raise 50 basis points in march because of the geopolitical turmoil maybe they're only going to raise four or five times in 2022 versus i think what jp morgan said a couple weeks ago which was eight or nine times in 2022 so you've seen this little bit of a situation where tech stocks have actually been doing a little bit better since the invasion and i think it has a lot to do with the chance that the fed is not as aggressive on titanic yeah so i mean 42 is going to be your first you know small test it's only a minor level of resistance here on the chart so again small test coming up at 42 000 may take a couple days to try to push through it but i do think that there is a decent chance that it's able to and then they trade back up to that 47 this upsloping orange trend line here i think what investors have to understand is that everything we do here in technical analysis land is based on probabilities right so when you see a sharp move down like this there's inevitably a period where you go sideways and chop for long periods of time so you can see how you're starting to kind of do this pattern and ultimately what you're forming is a bigger bearish pattern on the daily chart it's called a bear flag or an in spirit of bear flag and so the odds favor that at some point it breaks down now it gives you a lot of opportunity to trade the range which is what i've been doing but inevitably the midterm i still think sub 20 or 20 000 is likely and then once we get down there once you see this kind of final flushout.comish type reckoning period then i'll be starting to huddle myself and starting to accumulate more bitcoin for the longer term yeah so and that's a great question right so this can be used for people that have longs like me if it breaks this next level i'll show you guys then i would exit the logs that i have right now and say okay game up game over and basically it's this trend line right so you have a very defined line that you can watch and the beauty of it is it's actually rising so your stop is getting tighter and tighter as bitcoin goes up almost like a trailing stop in this situation so if you were to get below this line on a daily closing basis i would be very concerned that this range is now broken and price will start trading down pretty aggressively
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