Markets should trade well into FOMC meeting, and for a few weeks after, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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9월 초 약세 후 FOMC 전후 몇 주간 시장이 견조할 것으로 봄. 금리인하 기대와 인플레이션 완화가 지지 요인이라 봄. 대선까지 8주간 불확실성은 크나 대선 후 11~12월 랠리 가능성과 내년 정책 호재를 언급. 9월 첫 주 약세 후 월말 반등 사례가 많다고 통계 제시(첫 주 하락 시 월간 마감 양호 사례는 드묾, 다만 반등 후 월말 음전 사례 존재). 메가캡 대비 소형주는 금리 인하가 자금조달 비용과 경기민감주에 순풍이 되어 향후 12개월 강세 가능성 제시.

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01. let's break down today's action with our first guest fun Strat Global advisor co-founder and CNBC contributor Tom Lee Tom the small caps that I know you're watching closely had a good day but I mean is it September or is it not September right we had a rough start and now some of that's in the rearview mirror uh yeah I mean I think if viewers are sort of confused I think that's what the next eight weeks are going to be like into election day I I think it's a very challenging period because no one can have conviction until they really know who's in the white house but uh there are some positive sort of supports coming into play and next week is the Fed meeting um we know the FED is going to make some cuts and with the inflation data being supportive and the labor markets needing some support I I think it's going to give the in the market some confidence so I I think we do kind of trade well into that meeting and maybe even the week or two after does the market need a 50 basis point cut to stay within that 5,300 to 5700 range that you think we're going to bounce around in you know I I think that a 25 or 50 has both hawkish or doish implications right so I think it's ultimately WEA Vare Powell comes across as this is the start of a cycle where they're confident that we're moving back towards neutral and whatever number they make is actually quite doish and positive but if it seems like this is dragging along the fomc members and then there's even concerns about a hard Landing then I think the market can view anything they do as as negative I think it's going to come out positive though but I mean it seems like the the FED chatter would be in that direction they didn't want people to get too excited about too much in terms of rate Cuts but now that they're there it seems like they're signaling that they're kind of on a path yes that's right but to you know from a markets perspective I think that they'd like to see the FED sort of acknowledge that inflation is moving back as a secondary concern and labor market supporting labor markets while not in a recession is incredibly important so I think that you're right it there's a chance that this could all be interpreted negatively If the Fed seems really reluctant to cut most people ought to be investors not Traders so are we up against whe whether we're talking about the fed or even about the election a potential narrative shift in the markets or no I think in the near term we're losing visibility and you know when when you don't have visibility people get scared and they sit on their hands but over the next 12 months I think investors should be pretty confident when the FED has cut rates while in a soft Landing or no Landing the win ratio or markets higher 6 months 9 months 12 months later it's almost 100% and we also know postelection markets almost always rally so the November December looks pretty good and I think the policies of both candidates is good enough for markets to do well next year so I I I think we might have turbulence now but it it looks pretty good after that now back to that turbulence for people who are trading it's been a weird September because usually when the month starts bad it's bad but we have this situation how do you read it well yeah you're right uh if you took the 10 worst first week of September it's like the 10 times of September was down 2 and a half% or more 10 out of 10 times the market never finished positive for the month for the month in fact if you took the 20 worst first weeks of September 20 out of 20 September was a down month so um however three out of 10 times from the fifth day which would have been Monday to the end of the month you actually clawed back gains you just didn't finish the month positive so I think the OD it's a strange seasonal I I might just say to me next week is more important cuz it's the fed and the put coming into play and that might be the dominant factor for the rest of the month and that could be quite a support for markets so let's talk about some broader issues particularly Mega caps versus small caps we saw big comeback for NVIDIA we saw uh really some continued flexing strength from the likes of Apple which is now I would say firmly on top in the market cap race such as it is and then we've seen small caps struggle more than than some might have hoped though today is an exception which is more uh influential in this market um they're both important and they reflect different you know investor views I think you you still always want to own the best companies and the most important themes I mean that's Nvidia and that's Apple um and they're going to really work over any cycle but when the market begins to believe the FED is going to move rates back towards neutal control and that's both cost of money mortgages auto loan rates you know these are really big Tailwinds for cyclical stocks and small caps in particular so I think that's why I'd still want to make a very educated bet with high probability that small caps could do very well the next 12 months and even between now and year end