저자: PlusEVbagholder · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏 연 20% 수익 사례를 들며 장기 투자와 종목 선정의 중요성을 강조. 피터 린치의 '아는 것에 투자', 필립 피셔의 scuttlebutt, 로어링 키티의 내부자 매수 스프레드시트 분석 방식을 소개. Deckers(HOKA)와 Nike를 마진·성장률·EV/EBIT·FCF 기준으로 비교해 Nike가 고평가라고 주장. 인사이더 매수 스크리너·OpenInsider·Fintel·SEC 공시 등 무료 자료와 본인 유료 웹사이트를 홍보.
다듬은 글
Rule number one, never lose money. Rule number two, don't forget rule number one. Warren Buffett was able to get an annual return of 20% for 60 years. And if you had invested $100 with him, after 60 years, it'd be worth $6.5 million today. If you were just going to invest in the S&P 500 60 years ago, it would be an average annual return of 10%, which would only be worth $45,000 today.
So, picking the right stocks and holding them for the long term is how you build wealth if you're able to research and pick them effectively. So, today we're going to go over some super investors' philosophies and what I've taken from each one of them and how I research stocks with their framework in mind.
One of my favorite super investors is Peter Lynch. Peter Lynch, he is known for investing what you know. He ran the Magellan Fund for 13 years and his average annual return was 29% over while he ran the fund, which is absolutely insane. He He wrote the book One Up On Wall Street and Beating the Street.
So, I recommend reading those books and one funny thing that he talked about in his book was Hanes, the the clothing brand. His wife had told him that the underwear was very comfortable. What he decided to do was buy panties for the rest of his female co-workers and he wanted to get their opinions on if they're comfortable or not.
So, I don't know. That's pretty weird, but it's very effective in seeing which businesses are going to be successful if people like the product, obviously. He knew that Hanes underwear was comfortable and it turned out to be a major winner for him and the Magellan Fund. The next super investor that is awesome is Philip Fisher.
He wrote the book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and he was like the original growth investor. He always planned to hold stocks for his entire lifetime and he'd only sell if the business deteriorated. He invented the term scuttlebutt, which is you go and interview and investigate the company by asking the employees, the managers, how's business?
Is business busy? How are your competitors? Who Who's your main competitor? And then he would go investigate the competitors, see who their best competitor was, and if everyone's getting the same name, then that's probably the business you'd want to own. And that's what he called Scuttlebutt. And for example, I did I did Scuttlebutt as well whenever I was investigating Kohl's stock.
I see like, "Oh, look, the pickup counter is full of orders, so I can assume that it could possibly be a good quarter for Kohl's if it's really busy." All right, the next super investor that I love is Keith Gill, which is Roaring Kitty. And he's most known for the GameStop short squeeze. However, he is also a CFO, and he he would he researched stocks in a way that the retail investor could, and he built his own spreadsheets, and from those spreadsheets he was able to research businesses really quickly and efficiently, and that's how I modeled my own spreadsheets.
If you look at his YouTube videos, he shows you all these like insider buying spreadsheets where he could grab the KPIs, the value investor metrics. It would also be insider buying. If the insiders are bullish on the stock and they buy, they believe that the stock's going to go higher and that the stock's undervalued.
He starts within that framework. That's the way I modeled my spreadsheets as well, is after him. And then I just kind of moved my spreadsheets to a website, and that's what I'm sharing with y'all. This insider buying screener is mostly modeled after his own spreadsheets. And I've actually taken the KPIs that he paid most closest attention to, and I I've got them in highlighted in green.
So, most green KPIs are at the very top, so I would start investigating these at first, and he cared so much about efficiency. Like he he would not want to type anything on the computer. He'd always want to be just click, click, click, and move really quickly, so you could click the DCF, and you could start doing your research from the insider buying screener, So, you can go through companies quickly and efficiently.
So, we see there's a ton of insider buying on this company. And then you see that all the green KPIs, he would like a low price to tangible book value, uh which would be like under 0.7. Uh so, price is the market cap, and then the tangible book value is the tangible assets, kind of like the the land or the buildings.
Those are tangible assets, and they're trading at a discount. So, let's say the the building is worth a million dollars. Right now, you can buy the the company for $600,000. That's what it's being priced at at a 0.6 tangible book value. He'd like a low P ratio and low price to free cash flow. So, free cash flow is like the fuel of the business.
If you have a billion dollars of debt and you have a billion dollars of free cash flow every year, you're able to make those debt payments. However, sometimes the market doesn't pay attention to those things. So, sometimes you can get really good deals by just looking at the price to free cash flow multiple.
Another thing I should have mentioned when we were talking about Peter Lynch is when you invest in what you know, you won't panic sell. Remember when Deep Seek in China, they released Deep Seek and it was very cheap for them to make, and basically the US stock market dropped like 20% just because of this Deep Seek model coming out.
It's because nobody understands how AI works really besides the experts. That's why if you invest in something like like Hanes clothing, then you won't panic sell if uh some news comes out. "Well, the product is still good, so I'm still going to hold." Next, we're going to talk about how to value companies and compare them to other companies.
So, the main way we do this is by paying attention to their margins and their their multiples. So, I've pulled up two examples here. We have Deckers stock, which has like Hokas, the shoes, and then we have Nike stock. So, just by looking at these graphs, we can see that the margins are much higher on Hoka or Deckers, that's their ticker symbol.
And we see that the margins, like the operating margins, are 23%, the free cash flow margin is 19%, and we see that Nike's is only 8% and 3%. So, we can see that Decker has better margins, and then we see that on the very right right here, the 3-year revenue CAGR, that's the top-line growth, like sales growth.
So, for every pair of shoes they sell, $200 shoes, that's $200 added to the revenue. And their top-line revenue is minus 3% every year. So, they're shrinking their revenue, while Decker's is growing their revenue at 15% over the past 3 years. Decker's has higher margins, higher top-line growth, so they should be a higher multiple, right?
Let's uh let's think about the multiples again. An EV to EBIT multiple is the enterprise value. Enterprise value is market cap plus net debt. And what that means is how much you would have to pay to buy the entire business, and you get all the everything the business comes with, like the cash in the registers.
You get all the debt, and then you own the entire company. Then the EBIT is on the bottom, which is the operating income, and EBIT is basically earnings before interest and taxes. So, that's like the core operating operating income. So, EV [clears throat] to EBIT, the higher the multiple, the more expensive the business is.
We see Nike's EV to EBIT is 16 versus Hoka's is 8.8. So, that is kind of illogical. If you remember, we looked the margins are higher on Decker's, and the revenue growth rate is higher on Decker's. Then we can look at the price to free cash flow like remember, that's the free cash flow is the fuel of the business.
If they're able free cash flow, you can do so many things with free cash flow. They can buy back shares, they can pay it out in dividends, so that shareholders get paid, they can pay down debt, and then they'll have less debt interest payments, and that'll help in that income. So, net income, it's it's kind of more there's more accounting tricks with net income, so we usually like to look at free cash flow.
So, free cash flow is our go-to. But net income is good, too. But it's it's depreciation can bring down net income, so it can kind of conceal profits. Free cash flow, let's say you buy a new pizza cooker, it cost $10,000, a pizza oven. It cost $10,000. It would It would immediately show up in the free cash flow because of CapEx.
CapEx is subtracted from the operating cash flow. Okay, I think we're diving way too deep in that. So, we can see that the price to operating cash flow is 10 versus Nike's 20. So, we just see that Nike is way overvalued. And now we can look at the employees. So, Nike has so many more employees, 73,000 versus 2,200.
And then the profit per employee, Deckers has 460,000 versus Nike's 42,000. So, Decker is more lean and efficient. It has way more profit. I'm not invested in either of those companies, but I just know for sure Nike is overvalued. So, that's a really great comparison, in my opinion. I wouldn't mind own it owning Deckers, but or not [snorts] Deck.
Look at my cat. Nice. They work. They look like they fit, babe. Yeah. Don't tell me. Without the method of learning, you're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. And that's what Charlie Munger said. So, I'm going to share with you guys some of the free resources that Roaring Kitty liked to use, which would be OpenInsider.
And I can actually go to all these websites through my quick links. So, he he would like to look at the company's presentation for investors. So, we we can check that out. So, the easiest free way to get updates on companies is going to their investor relations, and then going to their investor presentations.
This is how you can stay updated on the stock. And you could use Excel or Google Sheets. Those are free methods to use. And then also, you could see that from Roaring Kitty's, he he liked to use Open Insider. I saw it somewhere over here. Oh, right here. So, on that thumbnail, he's using Open Insider to check for possible companies that could be a good investments that have like the CEO or CFO buying.
And he liked to look at above $250,000 being spent on buying stock from the CEOs or CFOs. This is a great resource. So, openinsider.com. Next thing I think I recommend is Fintel. This is if you're looking into short squeeze stocks. You can see like the short volume right here, 59% and you can see the days to cover, 6 days.
You can see how many shorts are available to short. So, that's pretty interesting. Then you can look at the SEC filings for the 10-Q and the 10-K. 10-Q is a quarterly document, basically. You can click right here, and this is the stuff that Warren Buffett would look at. He would read all the 10-K, the entire 10-K, which it just takes too much time.
Like, I have a job, so I can't be looking at all that stuff all the time. And then the 10-K is also somewhere around here. All these form 4s are insider purchases or sales. 13D is like a 5% ownership in the company. So, that's something to pay attention to if there's like an activist investor. Stock analysis, it's a great free resource for financials for the last 5 years.
And then the paid tiers, you get extra 10 years or something like that. I I like it for the news. I also like Finviz. Finviz is great for news as well. It also has technical analysis, which I have no idea how to do technical analysis, but I trust Finviz's technical analysis. And it has a bunch of KPIs as well.
Nice graph showing the share count decreasing. Also, last but not least, I would recommend my website, which I personally made for choosing my own stocks and I decided to share with you guys and you guys can get a free trial. You got the quarter over quarter, you got the quarter over quarter stuff, you got the the waterfall chart here.
I I go into deep dives on the rest of my channel, so just check out my other YouTube videos if you want to see more deep dives into the certain stocks and discount cash flow analysis, insider buying at the very bottom here. Just basically doing it the free way, it takes a lot of time, so if you subscribe to my website, it's 25 bucks a month.
A free 7-day trial and you can even add your stock picks to your portfolio and it'll track your your deep discount cash flow models and it'll change according to the price. Let's say a Kohl's stock goes up 500% then the blended IRR is going to drop way down. So, right now I would I should be adding to Kohl's stock position and trimming TMDX.
However, I'm I'm okay with a 20% IRR. That's That's what I'm aiming for, just like Warren Buffett's returns. That's what I want. However, if it goes below 20% then that's okay. I don't want to cause a lot of tax problems for myself, so it's better just to wait and let the money compound. You can upload a screenshot and it'll show you nice visual of your holdings as well.
You can also see my holdings at any time. Also, join the free Discord down below. Insider daily digest, which shows the best value setups with with insider buying and you can see oversold companies as well. It's a free Discord, so you can also pay $3 to get access to the charts like this within the Discord and also live buys and sells from me.
If you enjoyed this video, leave a like and if you know any good stocks to buy, leave a comment down below and I'll try to check them out and maybe make a video on it. So, I'll also mention you in the next video if you decide to comment. So, thanks for watching.
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