저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Mark Mobius와 Warren Buffett이 트럼프 관세 불확실성으로 현금 비중을 높였다며 시장 대폭락 가능성을 언급. Mobius는 펀드 95% 현금 보유, 버크셔는 약 3477억 달러 현금. Buffett은 약한 통화(달러)에 베팅하지 않겠다고 경고. 인도는 상대적으로 양호하나 관세 협상 결과가 관건. 7월 9일 관세 관련 발표에 주목하라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, Namaskar, I heartily welcome all of you to SM , if you want, you can also follow this channel for free stock market classes here. Another channel is Let's Learn Stock Market and Finance. If you want, you can also follow this channel. You will find the links of both the channels in the description below on the i button above.
Where you will get to learn and see classes and courses related to finance and share market absolutely free of cost. So friends, let's start this video for now. So okay friends, now we have come right on top of our normal screen and yes friends, here we are going to talk about an important topic which everyone has seen, so yesterday and the day after tomorrow, we cover all the videos here daily.
So, things related to this are definitely asked in the comment section. So let me try to compile all these things and make a video here. So if you want, you can study further. So everyone is asking Sir, is there going to be a big crash in the market? Is the market going to fall sharply here ? Ok? Why is he asking this now?
What is the reason behind that ? What is logic? So I am going to try to tell you that here. See, if you look closely, things are divided into two parts. One is internal reason. Is there another one? External Rease. Now look, if we talk about India and Pakistan, who knows what will happen in future. But the question being asked is whether the market will fall sharply here?
They are being asked especially due to external reasons. Now you will say external region, what is the logic behind it? So friends, we are getting to see two big logic and reasons behind this here. Reason means that some hints can be seen. I mean, if we talk about the share market, we get to see big and big investors.
Fund managers are visible. Ok? And if such big investors are not investing their money in the market or if they are holding cash, then it becomes a topic of discussion. And if we talk about the present situation, we are not talking about any investor fund managers who have held cash. Here we are talking about big fund managers and big investors.
And one of them does n't even need an introduction here. Ok? So who are you talking about friends? So first of all, if we talk about this here, then this is being discussed here. So what are their names, friends? So I had also told you about this by making a video here. You can read their full names here.
But it is known here by the short form Mark Mobis. So if we talk about Mark Mobius here, then we can say that he is an emerging market fund manager and along with that, he is also the founder. If we talk about Mobis Capital Partnership Partners LLP here. And if we talk about the recognition that Mark Mobius got here, what was the thing for which he got recognition?
Yes, he had predicted the financial crisis, the recession of 2008 that we witnessed, he had predicted earlier that a worldwide financial crisis was going to be witnessed here. This is not a recent thing. I am telling you an old story here. And then what did this fund manager do? I had kept my money and the money of all my clients in cash.
Why? Because he had told that a huge fall was going to happen. A huge financial crisis may be seen. He told me this around 7:8. And then 2008 happened. You know Lemon Brothers Bank collapsed. Then in 2009, there was recession in our market and everything started at a very bad level. And we had to witness a very bad recession here at the global level.
So after that we got to see the name of Mark Mobis quite well here. So obviously if we talk about Mark Mobius here, then the purpose of telling is that in the history he had said such things here and that is why he had held the cash here and after that we were seeing the big crash of 2008. Now similarly they have come back here with similar things.
I mean, look, he runs his own fund and there you can see that if we talk about Mark Mowes, he told that his fund is holding 95% cash. He has not invested. He said that we will wait for the opportunity. And that's why 95% is in cash. And what is the reason behind this? Trade war related risks. So at this point, Mark Mobis is still sitting on cash.
If I present the complete and proper details before you, then you can see that big investor Mark Moebius is keeping a bulk of his fund holding in cash, so he told here that at present we are seeing heavy trade related uncertainties in the market. And he has also tried to make a prediction. Maybe in the next 5-6 months, we can see similar things here.
So what have they done? At present, I am holding my money in cash and keeping it here. So obviously while giving interview to Bloomer he said this here that almost 95% is cash. And he also said what does cash mean? Obviously he keeps that money to invest. So he has also said that he has kept the cash.
And be ready to move when the time is right. So he said we will wait for the right time and then invest the money. Ok? So according to him, he feels that this is not the right time at all here because the kind of things we are seeing here at present, due to a lot of uncertainty, the environment here can also get spoilt.
Then if we talk about Mark Mobes, he also talked about emerging markets where he talked about India and he told that in the current scenario, India can do quite well. But you can see ahead friends, he has also installed a butt. What did he say? India can do well in the current scenario. But we will have to see how India deals with the current things going on here.
I mean, you know brother, Trump has started playing the game of tariff. So he has also said that I will remove the tariff but you will have to do negotiations. So to what extent and in what manner does India negotiate? Ok? And what outcome comes out after that? According to that, he said that then we will have to see how India will perform.
But he has said that in the current scenario, India is moving a little ahead. We can also say this and we have also seen recently that we are getting to see a lot of talks and negotiations going on with Trump here. Till now we have not seen any final outcome coming in front of us. So that is why people were asking here that why is the market related decline being talked about here?
Because whenever he has held cash in large amounts, these things are highlighted that there is a huge risk in the market and he also told that due to the tariff, he has put forward this reason here that due to the tariff, I am taking this decision for now. Then friends, if we talk about it, then it is about Mark Mobius.
Then the second person who needs no introduction brother. Warren Buffet. Yes, if we talk about Warren Buffet here, you all know that his company, Birsh & Heath, is sitting on record cash of $347.7 billion. Yes, even recently, the quarter one data that came out shows quarter one, because according to the calendar year, the data that came out in April, according to Jan-Feb-March, so in quarter one, you can see what they have done, they have kept cash holding around $347 billion here, and what is the reason they have given behind this, you can see the tariff uncertainties, that is, talk about Mark Mobius or Warren Buffet.
Well, Varsha, he was the CEO of that company, right now he is seen stepping down, retiring, but what is the common thing between these two, both are holding cash and if there is a common thing between them, then it is the uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs. Everyone is worried because of this thing, at least if I talk about them and Warren Buffy ji had also given a warning recently.
He used such harsh words. He had said that we wouldn't bet on a currency going to hell. Meaning, such currency brother which is going to hell. It will just go down, down, down. These types of decisions are being taken here. We will not invest in such currencies. We won't even bet. And this is a big warning given by Warren Buffett to Trump regarding the US dollar.
Ok ? Because according to Trump, he will make the US dollar very powerful and strong. There will be trouble for the short term. Will do well in the long term. So Warren Buffy has given a clear warning. Brother, due to this thing people's trust will break. Ok? The condition of the currency will also deteriorate and the dollar will break down so much that it may be difficult to get back on its feet.
And that is why we can say here that friends, due to all these things, we can see Warren Buffett holding more and more cash here. And if we talk about him, he also mentioned at one point that what can he do in the emerging market in the future ? You can also put your record cash here. Now many markets come under emerging markets.
Brother, our market also comes. But if we look at the current situation, Japan seems to be their favourite market. We can say this here. Because recently he had added stocks of five Japanese companies to his portfolio. Some even increased their exposure here. And recently, when he gave a warning about the dollar, he also said that the performance of the yuan means let us talk about the Japanese yuan.
Their currency is called Japanese CN. So he can do well here. So we can specifically say that whatever Warren Buffett has said, his confidence in the dollar is decreasing significantly due to Trump's attitude. Their confidence in the Japanese currency and in Japan's investments is continuously increasing here.
We can also say that if the currency appreciates, then your investment will definitely get some extra benefits here. So friends, what is the conclusion due to these things that these two points which we are seeing here, due to this thing, people are seeing cash holding here and the discussion is going on here whether there will be a big crash or not, okay, so I have covered this video related to the question which you people were asking, so where should your focus be?
Yes, your focus should remain on Trump's tariffs as to what he will do in the future because as I have repeated again and again, Trump has not reduced any reciprocal tariff to zero, neither has he removed it, he has just postponed it, which we are going to see in the next mega episode on the 9th of July, which list will he bring, what will be imposed on whom, what will be imposed or not, we are seeing high uncertainty, okay see, investing small money is a different thing, investing big money is a different thing, there is so much uncertainty in that, you will invest a big money and later you will come to know that they have started playing the tariff game.
Companies' revenues plummeted. Profitability blew up. So the problem will arise here. And you are also seeing that many American companies are refusing to disclose their revenue, that is, to disclose their future forecasts, or they are reducing some of the revenues that they had disclosed earlier. Meaning, because of Trump and his tariffs, everyone is seen getting troubled here.
This is one of the biggest problematic reasons we are seeing here right now. So I hope friends, those who wanted a video related to this topic would have got this video. So if you want, you can also do further study here. See you in the next video. Until then, bye.
댓글 0