원문 보기
the market goes up and down if you're investing with a one or two year time Horizon you shouldn't be in individual stocks you shouldn't be in equity mutual funds before you start to invest ask yourself one question that's the kind of money you can do well with if you're worried about it don't invest it you can learn years of stock picking experience in one night but you have better stock picking skills than you realize and you have advantages that no one on Wall Street has you may be wondering why stocks are so important for long-term investment program the short answer over time stocks produce better returns than other Investments past 60 years stocks have returned about 10 a year bonds have averaged six percent a year treasury bills or Bank CDs around three that doesn't seem like a big difference does it but the power of compounding makes an enormous difference over time suppose you invest fifty dollars a month and earn six percent after 30 years you have over fifty thousand dollars when your investment is taxed the government reduces your return every year if you know you won't need the money until retirement you should place as much of your Investments as possible into tax deferred accounts like IRAs POS 401k or 403b plants because you don't pay taxes on the money until it is withdrawn from the accounts the power of compounding achieves the maximum effect providing you the best return possible the more time you have to let your earnings compound the better results you'll get a 20 year old who invests 200 a month and earns 10 on his money along let 1.1 million dollars the time he was 60.
the 35 year old would have to invest 800 a month to have the same 1.1 million dollars at age 60. you're going to have a tough time getting that 10 return without at least some stocks in your portfolio before you start to invest ask yourself one question when will I need to use this money term investment if you need to use the money anytime soon you should not invest in stocks this is money you're willing to put in the market and leave it there for 5 10 20 30 years that's the kind of money you can do well with if you're worried about it don't invest it the market goes up and down if you're investing with a one or two year time Horizon you shouldn't be in individual stocks you shouldn't be an equity funds if you want to double your money quickly and safely fold it in half put it in your wallet any other way you're simply gambling a good stock can take two three even five years before it really pays off it's not two or three weeks it's not two or three months my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year give your Investments time to grow when is the right time to sell a stock selling stocks is a matter of comparing stories if story a is better than story B then cell b and buy more a if you own eight companies you're playing eight simultaneous games of Poker so only stay in the games that you have the best chance of success but remember that stories rarely change overnight may take years for a good one to be recognized by the market give your good stories the time to grow investing is a personal thing you have to do it by yourself you don't do it with a committee you have to be able to have the emotional strength the stand the volatility of the market in general and stocks in general the key organ here is not the brain it's the stomach you have the stomach for this you have the patience for it you should be able to look in the mirror and say to myself what am I going to do if the market goes down the amateur investor probably we can follow between five and eight companies they could lecture in these five or eight companies they know them very well this ten to fifteen thousand public companies United States there's lots more overseas so you don't have to be experts on lots of companies you just have to know a few very well it's a lot of fun it only takes a few hours a month it's not a full-time job you don't have to worry about something inventing a new computer chip the story doesn't change that much McDonald's earnings have gone up I think more than 80 fold over the last 30 years the Stock's gone up 100 fold what made McDonald's earnings continue to grow if they just stuck with a cheap cheeseburger and a cheap hamburger at lunch they probably would have run into earnings problems 10 15 years ago but they expanded their menu they kept their costs low they added breakfast they went overseas every day they add two or three more restaurants people thought there was no room for more McDonald's 5 10 15 years ago they were wrong if they had done the research they said well there's a couple hundred countries out there there's lots of places to grow actual bad economic news Rising interest rates Wars elections any of these can push the market down if you're one of those people that pour over graphs economic statistics or astrology charts trying to figure out what the stock market is going to do next you are wasting your time no one can predict the market you have to understand the market goes down there's been 95 Years A Century we've had 50 declines of over 10 percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 percent or more so about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent but once every six years it falls 25 these are big drops you have to understand that that's the nature of the market if the company does terrific over a long period of time the stock will do terrific if the company does lousy the stocks can do lousy that's all you're betting on this is a company that's had 35 years of double-digit earnings growth every single quarter we've had changes in the Supreme Court we've got the stock market go up and down we have changes in presidents we've had recessions we've had Wars all of those things had no effect on automatic data processing so every time the market went down it gave you a chance to buy it you're saying I believe strongly this company's going to do well you start to see symptoms that's not going to happen the Stock's going to very rapidly respond to that if the company runs out of steam the Stock's going to run out of steam if you start by looking at the entire universe's stocks more than 3 000 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange alone and over 13 000 public companies in total you'll blow a gasket so I break stocks into categories partly to make the job of researching more manageable putting stocks into categories is the first step in developing the story at least you'll know what kind of story it's supposed to be the category tells you what questions you should be asking about a company you simply can't expect all stocks to behave the same basing a strategy on General maxims like sell when you double your money or sell when the price Falls 10 percent is absolute Folly no formula will apply to all stocks different stocks behave differently so they require different approaches different expectations and different kinds of stories suppose you've made a 50 gain on two companies one is a gas grower with a long way to go the other is a big lumbering slow growth company that has already saturated 95 of its market and that market itself is growing slowly the 50 return is fantastic for the slow grower the chances are it's time to sell it the same 50 return would be just the tip of the iceberg for the fast grower there are basically five categories one would be fast Growers two would be slow Growers three bicyclicals four would be asset plays and the fifth one would be turnarounds how does the company plan to increase earnings sales growth is the single most important factor in growing earnings long term so you must ask yourself how the company is going to make sales rise the company can expand its customer base selling its existing products to new customers brings in new Revenue when evaluating this strategy consider how far the company is from saturating the market or its products if a company is already selling to 98 of its potential customers there aren't a lot left to reach the company can introduce new products into its existing customer base this is the most difficult but potentially the most rewarding strategy If the product catches on it can breathe new life into the company advantages like brand names and a good reputation come in very useful here a company can also raise prices to increase revenues that way even if unit sales stay constant revenues will still grow of course the danger of raising prices is that the higher prices will drive customers to competitors or encourage new competitors to enter the market the details of a company's plan will vary by industry and by individual company just make sure you understand that plan and include it in your story once you've built the story for your company you have a powerful tool for judging the stock like any powerful instrument you must use it wisely and carefully or you'll get burned use your story to pick the right time to buy a stock I promise you at the right time to buy a stock does not occur often when I'm following a stock buying opportunities present themselves once or twice a year if I'm lucky I look for times when the potential upside is high and the potential downside to reduce understanding that balance is a key to successful Stock Investing you have to understand stock picking is a risk reward trade-off you have to know how much you're going to lose if you're wrong and how much you're going to make if you're right the skill is to minimize your risk and maximize your reward everyone can do well in the stock market you have the skills you have the intelligence it doesn't require any education all you have to have is patience do a little research you've got it don't worry about it don't panic foreign
댓글 0