저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
멍거는 미국 우량주가 이미 25~35배 PER로 잘 평가돼 좋은 기업을 싸게 사기 어렵다고 설명한다. 전문 자산운용사 대부분이 지수를 못 이기는 이유는 과도한 분산과 지나친 정보 수집 때문이며, 버크셔는 소수 기회에 집중해 평균을 넘었다고 주장한다. 또 역발상(인버전) 사고와 정직하게 행동하는 것의 이점을 강조하고, 금융업계의 과장된 영업과 PE의 부실 자산 매각 관행을 비판한다.
다듬은 글
but of course everybody's looking for the same thing and the trouble with it is you will find when you get into those good businesses you know plac is picked over and analyzed as American stocks are and you can imagine the amount of time spent thinking about American stocks and you will find by and large in America if it's really a great business it's at least 25 times earnings and maybe 30 or 35 or something so that makes it much harder of course because if something goes wrong you can lose a lot of your investment and and of course that's what makes investment so difficult is the fact that the good the good businesses don't stay cheap you got to somehow recognize a good business before it's recognizable as a good business that's very hard to do some people get good at it but not many I don't think I would want 95% of the people who are America's professional asset managers I wouldn't want working for me really I think it's that hard I think you need to be in the top five% to have a reasonable chance it's it's very difficult now it's not difficult just buy an index SP and sit on your ass that that that's the great default position now a place like Berkshire haway or even the Daily Journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened why has that happened and the answer is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about can soup and Aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dream we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like Jen krer pretends tends to have and and we always realized that if we worked very hard we could find a few things where we were right and the few things were enough and that that was a reasonable expectation that is a very different way to approach the process and if you had asked Warren Buffett the same thing that this investment counseling did give me your best idea this year and you just followed Warren's best idea you would find it work beautifully but he would trying to know the whole he would give you one or two stocks he had more limited Ambitions I had a grandfather who was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a Pioneer and he came out to Iowa with no money but you truth and health and took it away from the Indians he fought in the blackhaw he was a captain in the Blackhawk Wars and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town on the bank and and uh and highly regarded and a huge family and a very happy life and and he had the attitude having come out to Iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and having stayed there until that black top soil created a modern Rich civilization in some of the best land in the world his attitude was that in a favored life like his when you were located in the right place you just got a few opportunities if you live to be about 90 and the trick in coming out well was seizing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren hung around him all somewhere and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but I'm not my mother's natural imitator and I knew Grandpa was right and so I always knew from the very first when I was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have at a big investment counseling thing they think if they study a million things they can know a million things and that and of course the result is almost nobody can outperform an index whereas I sit here with my Daily Journal stock my Burkshire haway stock my Holdings in leelu's Asian fund my Costco stock and of course I'm outperforming everybody and I'm 95 years old and I pratically never have a transaction and the answer is I'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and another the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them the the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing you want the standard result and not be embarrassed well of course you can wiely diversify now nobody's entitled to a lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that 2 and2 equals 4 and but the investment professionals think they're helping you by ranging a d diversification an idiot could diversify a portfolio and or a computer for that matter and and but the whole trick of the game is to have have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough what the hell does you care you own three Securities and JB Morgan Chase owns 100 you know it's what's wrong with owning a few Securities waren always says you lived in a growing town and you owned stock and three of the best Enterprises in the town isn't that Diversified enough the answer is of course it is they're all wonderful places and that Fortune's formula which got so famous which was a formula to tell people how much to bet on each transaction if you had an edge and of course the bigger your Edge the more close the transaction was to a certain winner the more you should bet and of course there's mathematics behind it but of course it's true it's perfectly possible to buy buy only one thing because the opportunity is so great and it's such a sanch or only two or three so the whole idea of diversification when you're looking for excellence is totally ridiculous it doesn't work it gives you an impossible task what fun is it to do an impossible task over and over again I find it Agony and just who would want to do it and and I don't see why my father had a client he was a lawyer in Omaha he had a client whose husband had a little Soap Company and the guy died and my father sold the soap company this woman was one of the richest people in town in the middle of depression and what she had was a little Soap Company in a biggest mansion and Omaha best neighborhood when they sold the Soap Company she had a mansion in the best neighborhood and $300,000 but $300,000 in 1930 something was an incredible amount of money a little hamburger was a nickel a big hamburger was a dime and the all you can eat Cafe inaho would feed you all you needed to stay alive for two bits a day I mean 300,000 well she didn't hire an investment counselor she didn't do anything she's a wonderful old woman and she just took that and she divided it into five chunks and she bought five stocks I remember three of them cuz I probated her estate and it was one of them was General Electric one was Dow one was Dupont I forget the other two then she never changed those stocks she never paid any advisor she never did anything and she bought some municipal bonds she never spent her income and she bought some municipal bonds from time to time with the incomes by the time she died in the 50s she had a million and half dollars no costs no expenses and I said how did you decide to do that and she said well she said I thought electricity and chemistry were the coming things he just chunked it all in and sat on her ass I always like that old woman my kind of a girl if you take the modern world where people are trying to teach you how to come in and trade actively in stocks well I regard that as roughly equivalent to trying to induce a bunch of young people to start off on heroin it is really stupid and when you're already rich to make your money by encouraging people to get rich by trading and then there are people on the TV another wonderful place and they say I have this book that will teach you how to make 300% a year and all you have to do is pay for shipping and I will mail it to you How likely is it that a person who had suddenly found a way to make 300% a year we be trying to sell books on the internet to you and it's ridiculous and yet I've described modern Commerce and the people that do this all day think they're useful citizens the advertising agents and vent the lingo and so in insurance they say well they see the two people who shifted from GEICO to the glotz insurance company say $400 each what they don't tell you is there are only two such people in the whole United States and they were both nuts but they mislead you on purpose and and I get tired of it and I I don't think it's right that we deliberately mislead people as much as we do let me tell you another story that I think is an interesting one about the Modern Life but this goes back to a different time and this man has this wonderful horse and it's just a marvelous horse got an easy gate and goodlooking and everything it just works wonderfully but also occasionally just gets so he dangerous and vicious and causes enormous damage and trouble and breaks arms and legs for there's Rider and so on and he goes to the vet and say what can I do about this horse the vet says that's a very easy problem and I'm glad to help you says what should I do and the man says the next time your horse is behaving well sell it well think of how immoral that is and haven't I just described what private Equity has to do when private Equity has to sell something that's really Troublesome they hire an investment banker and what does the investment banker do he makes a projection you can't I I have never seen such expertise in my whole life as is created in making projections in Investment Banking there is no business so lousy it can't get a wonderful projection and but is that a great way to make a living to have phony projections and use it to make money out of people you look right into the eyes of I would say no and by and large Warren and I we never tried to make money out of dumb say out of stupid of our dumb buyers we tried to make money by buying and if we were selling Hors we didn't want to pretend it was a cure for arthritis and and and and I think it's better to go through life our way instead of theirs and I I I think it's always been this way I there's always been chanary think of the carnivals of the Carney operator think how much trickier there is in a car operation and people just seek out the weaknesses of their fellow man and take advantage and you have to get wise enough so you you avoid them all and you can't avoid them if they're in your family I have no solution to that one but but where you have a fair Choice there are just so many people that should be avoided my father had this best friend client and he also had this other client who is a big blow hard and and he was always working for the big blow hard and he wasn't ever working for his wonderful clown whom I admired and I said why do you do this and he said Charlie you idiot he says the big blow heart is an endless source of legal troubles he's always in trouble overreaching and misbehaving and so forth where say Grant fayen treats everybody right the employees the customers everything and he gets involved with some psychotic he walks over there and makes an Grace immediately he so a man like that doesn't need a lawyer and my father was trying to teach me something and it really worked I spent my whole life trying to be like Grant mcfaden and I want to tell you it works it really works Peter coffin is always telling me if the crooks only knew how much money you could make by being honest they all behave differently it's Warren has a wonderful saying I like he says you take the high road it's never crowded answer is of course I hardly do anything else and one of my favorite tricks is the inversion process and give you an example when I was a meteorologist in World War Two they told me how to draw weather maps and predict the weather but actually doing is clearing Pilots to take flights and he just reversed the problem I inverted I said suppose I wanted to kill a lot of Pilots what would be the easy way to do it and I soon concluded that the only easy way to do it would to get the planes into icing the planes couldn't handle or to get the pilot into a place where he'd run out of fuel before he could safely land so I made up my mind I was going to stay miles away from killing Pilots by from by either icing or getting them into sock in conditions when they couldn't land I think that helped me be a better meteorologist in World War to I just reversed the problem and if somebody added me to fix India I would immediately say what could I do if I really wanted to hurt India and I'd figure out all the things that would most easily hurt India and then I'd figure out how to avoid them you'd say it's the same thing it's just in Reverse it works better to frequently to invert the problem if you're a meteorologist it really helps if you really know how to avoid something which is is the only thing that's going to kill your pilots and if you can help India best if you understand what will really hurt India the easiest and worse algebra works the same way every great algebraist inverts all the time because the problems are solved easier human beings should do the same thing in the ordinary walks of life it's constantly avert you don't think of what you want you think what you want avoid or when you're thinking what you want to avoid you also think about what you want and you just go back and forth all the time Peter Kaufman who's here today he likes the idea that you want to know how the world looks from the top looking down and you want to know what it looks like from the bottom looking up if you don't have both points of view your reality recognition is lousy Peter's right and inversion is the same thing just such a simple trick
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