저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 글로벌 경기 회복은 부채·돈 찍기에 기댄 자산 거품이며, 미국 포퓰리즘 랠리도 거품 위에 서 있어 장기적으로 취약하다. 글로벌 경제: 신용 확대와 재정적자, 중앙은행 대차대조표 확대로 성장이 떠받쳐지고 있으며 불안정한 회복이다. 2009년 이후 자산가격은 신고가를 경신했고 원자재와 부동산도 상승했다. 미국 포퓰리즘·무역: 트럼프 랠리가 세계 시장을 진정한 회복으로 이끌지, 설탕 과다 같은 일시적 부양에 그칠지 의문을 제기하며 미국 경제는 나쁜 동네의 상대적으로 나은 집이라고 평가했다. 대중국 무역전쟁 조짐이 보인다고 봤다. 중국: 과거 부채 증가는 역사상 유례없는 수준이었으나 인프라 투자로 장기 성장 기반이 되었다고 평가했다. 미국 인프라는 노후화된 반면 중국은 크게 확충되었다. 역사적 시각: 1750년경 중국·인도가 세계 경제의 약 60%였으나 산업혁명 이후 1950년대에 5% 미만으로 줄었고, 최근 수십 년은 서구의 상대적 쇠퇴가 진행 중이라고 봤다. 자산 격차와 사회: 자산 보유자는 부유해진 반면 일반 가구의 실질 생활수준은 하락했고, 젊은 세대는 집을 사기 어렵다고 지적했다. 능력과 부의 불평등을 받아들이지 않는 평등주의가 문제라고 주장했다. 정치·민주주의: 민주주의의 장기 생존을 확신하지 못하며, 정치인의 힘은 제한적이라고 평가했다. 엘리트의 자기 파괴적 흐름을 신봉건주의로 이어진다는 우려를 제기했다. 리스크: 자산 거품 붕괴 가능성과 부채 기반 성장의 취약성이 핵심 리스크다. 출연자 전망: 글로벌 자산 거품 지속은 불안정하며 장기적으로 서구 상대 쇠퇴가 이어질 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
can this Trump populist nationalist rally that's spreading across the world can it pull the world markets up into a true global recovery or is it like a sugar high and a sugar high that I want because at least it's a bubble keeping us from a total collapse or depression that that might actually create some new industry and jobs in the United States and the u.s.
is kind of one of the better houses in a bad neighborhood and we're entering into a trade war it looks like in an economic war with the Communist Chinese I mean if you look at where we were going it was bad and so yes it's another bubble we're riding with Trump but isn't that all we've got is bubbles I mean is that what you're getting it it's a very difficult thing to to clean the swamp because there's so many parties there's many organizations just to get the documentation that you need from the FBI or CIA they resist actually telling you what they have been doing and so yes he's doing a great job relative to what he can do you know sending China Xi Jinping has the power he can say I'm gonna do this and that will be done nothing else Trump and any Western leader doesn't have that power there are people behind the scene that pulled the strings and so forth and so he's much more constrained than say a Chinese leader or let's say bloody me is an amazing individual a lot of great economic predictions and laurels under his belt he's mark Farber editor and publisher of the gloom and doom report that's gloom boom Jim dot-com and I'm not gonna go over all of his long bio or books or reports I'd want to get right into what's happening in the global economy we were trying to come on for weeks on other big issues and and on and on this recovery and the Democrats trying to sabotage it in the EU and migration but now you've got China is reportedly thinking of halting US Treasury purchases that's worrying markets right now the markets are down Schama still about 25,000 on the Dow Jones so what does he make of all of this what is his overall breakdown on Trump lowering our taxes to what the Chinese Communists have and now they gonna lower to zero as companies become state-run just amazing things so I can ask a lot of questions but I want him to cover the waterfront from the gloom boom Doom report thank you so much for joining us doctor well my pleasure what should we tackle first so much is going on yes well we can talk about the global economy which is kind of strengthening somewhat but as you know a lot of the strength is due to government deficits and to money printing in other words the expansion of balance sheets of central banks and of course of credit growth which is very strong so it's kind of a mixed recovery it's been very good for assets asset prices since 2009 have not only recovered but they've gone and make faith new highs on stocks all that was strong until a year ago commodities have also done quite well over the last 12 months so real estate has equally gone up around the world we had a really an exceptional kind of asset recovery asset bubble I would say and that has let's do stronger economic growth that looks reasonably good on the surface but if you dig deeper it's of course unstable economic growth and that's exactly where I was going next can this Trump populist nationalist rally that's spreading across the world can it pull the world markets up into a true global recovery or is it like a sugar high and a sugar high that I want because at least it's a bubble keeping us from a total collapse or depression that that might actually create some new industry and jobs in the United States and the u.s.
is kind of one of the better houses in a bad neighborhood and we're entering into a trade war it looks like in an economic war with the Communist Chinese I mean if you look to where we were going it was bad and so yes it's another bubble we're riding with Trump but isn't that all we've got as bubbles I mean is that what you're getting it yes I think we've got a lot of bubbles and I need to correct you I don't think that you can call the Chinese Communists any longer it's a one-party system the Communist Party but it is anything but communist it's ultra capitalistic with lots of very wealthy people having been created both through state subsidies and privileges but as well as through private initiative so I mean we've had in China I'd say almost the robber parents capitalism in the last few years and that has propelled the economy forward we have less regulation than in the u.s.
we have less so socialism than in Europe and that has been very very real for the economy well I totally agree with you that China is an authoritarian one-party kleptocracy where the upper party members and members of the Politburo in Central Committee are billionaires and then they are killing Buddhists and Christians for practicing their religion secretly it's a ultra corrupt evil elite hard-working good people under them it's a true travesty and I never see our media even criticizing Communist China anymore do you agree with a lot of economists that China is in a much more precarious position than even we are with their state-run system trying to prop up 10% growth rates that that that our bubble is underpinned with with some problems but that their bubble is even much more dangerous well I think we had huge credit growth in China in fact according to the Bank of International Settlements no country ever had the kind of credit Crouse China had over the last five to eight years in terms of percentage Inc however and at least need to point this out whereas in the Western world credit grouse flows into transfer payments in other words because it to people's pockets from one pocket into the other in China a lot of infrastructure has been built with this credit growth and this infrastructure benefits actually economic growth in the long run if you look at say infrastructure in China in Shanghai Beijing and supported other cities and you compare to the infrastructure in the US with few exceptions the US has actually very worried it's rotting and you see that you see the globalist moving from the u.s.
to China building them up saying they're the future and then trumpet looks like trying to imitate China but not with authoritarianism just letting us have jobs trying to build up infrastructure and I've seen Lloyd Blankfein making fun of him in tweets Cheng China's better you'll never stop us I mean it looks like there's a lot of I guess you could say China files in the global elite and then and there they're betting on China and that's one reason they hate Trump so much is he's trying to bet on America yes I mean America but we have to see very clearly they in 1750 in other words approximately 250 years ago China and India accounted for approximately 60% of the global economy and then came Industrial Revolution in Europe and a huge progress we have achieved through inventions and innovations and the application of these innovations to industry and commerce in Europe and in the US and as a result of that the percentage of India and China of the global economy declined to less than 5 percent in the 1950s partly also due to failed political decisions partly communism in China and India and then the West gave them the Promethean and then the West caves on the Promethean fire of the Renaissance and now we're being dumb across and now what has happened in the last say 20 30 years is that the Western countries experienced a relative decline and there's nothing you can do against this relative decline you can try to age well I'm in a relative decline I'm not as strong as I was when I was 20 years old I can't do sports as well as when I was 25 years old so I'm in a relative decline but I can try to age well as you as well as you so we have to try to do that and as Western societies in my opinion we have actually accelerated our time with failed policies by essentially socialists let's talk about that and the Socialists say they want to kill the West they in it is a self-loathing it is it is the culture and it will destroy the prosperity of the very sjw's calling for its collapse dr.
Marc Faber the editor and publisher of the gloom boom doom report with us with one more segment of where this collapse is going and then we'll be in the hands of murderuss one-party system Alex Jones here back live the daily may all one of those popular newspapers in the UK has a lot of hard-hitting news they also have like a swimsuit section of you know girls in bikinis or whatever I like it's one of my favorite online papers they've been banned on Virgin Atlantic train stations and trains because the head of it says that it's xenophobic to even cover immigration issues well Mark barber who's been on every TV show out there you know as a top expert editor publisher of the gloom boom doom report he got called racist and evil for even talking about the demographics and the Islamists being brought into Europe and how the less is committing suicide but then Peter Sutherland that engineered all this we just died by the way yesterday the head of the EU program and the founder of the of the modern EU he headed up the migration operation now and they and he said we're going to get rid of Western civilization so there's a vitriol against it when the technology and the system of it will work in other cultures and if everybody just wants to die not have kids then let people come into the you know high tech you know space-based system and and then the humanity can just move forward as we've certainly seen the West before it really was modern you know living in squalor as well but there is a war against authoritarians who want to break away civilization and know what the general public have access to free market and success and that's the technocracy google talks about and that's why they hate mark Fabra so super respected CNN MSNBC CNBC everything you imagine suddenly prasada non grata because he dares talk about the reality of it's not just the death of the West as you said it's the accelerated death why our Western elites fetishizing dr.
Farber the death of the West I also wonder why but we have to see one thing very clearly say if you look at the last 20 30 years well see people in other words the asset holders have become immensely rich as a result of money printing and ready browse and the average household typical household with the u.s.
the typical household in Western countries in Europe has had essentially a declining standard of living I would actually say that most boomers the people like myself born just after the war their children will die poor then we will die and they will earn less money and this is statistically proven that in real terms inflation adjusted they are less most young people cannot afford to buy a house cannot afford to buy an apartment unless they have parents who will put them but otherwise on their own they can't do that and as you said is this not social engineering where they have set it up Russia is trying to change this to not have families they've engineered it to not just D industrialize but depopulate the last and then once you'd be populated then you've got third world that is not a good prognosis show show why has everything been set up to to have crony capitalism to transfer wealth to the Jeff Bezos of the world while he runs around as anti family jihad well there are many explanations for that but I'd say our entitlement society and the socialist thought that everybody should be precisely equal when in fact some people are born a little bit more intelligent some people are born with some more money than others where I mean it may be sad to say so but we're just not all exactly equal some people can go to Harvard and most people cannot and so we have in the Western world this tendency to move and equalize everything that I will never understand that we have fought against communism and socialism for years for maybe the last hundred years and now we introduce it to the back through the back door what's right there and I think this is a huge failure of democracy and I'm not sure that democracy will survive in the long run this democracy is an experiment for the last 5000 years of history we had SN Chi all kinds of systems but for the last 200 years we have had this movement to its democracy and it's an elitist recent that everybody can vote this is not another using democracy to vote out democracy with new permanent elite classes based on their race or what color they are attempting to replace something that they see they're threatened by but but really it's the system that brought them in yes it precisely it's like an animal farm where some pigs are more equal than others some animals are more equal than others and for me it's very difficult to understand this frame of mind that we just actually accelerate our relative decline which would happen anyway so we had different civilizations we had the person civilization we had the Egyptian civilization we had the Greeks the Romans we had the Spanish Empire the British Empire we're the supremacy of America none of those committed suicide consciously we have an elite committing suicide because they know what they're doing as you said they take the pie and they take 30% of the money and they collectivize it to domesticate the mass of the people then less than 1% transfers to crony capitalism most of the wealth up here and they're in control but these people are destroying the engine of their own success even though it's been transferred to the breakaway civilization which is which is waging war against the nouveau riche and the very engines of wealth pulling up the ladder of success to create a permanent elite class and a giant underclass this is the conscious movement of civilization into neo feudalism is it not dr.
Bober yes that's it expression neo feudalism I'd say actually it's a very bad Bewdley because most of the few tools they had actually some education whereas today's elite infrequently has no education whatsoever how long do you think I mean what do you think of promptness in closing I mean he's you think he's a good guy I think he's doing what advice would you give him well as you know it's a very difficult thing to to clean the swamp of Washington because there's so many parties there's many organizations just to get the documentation that you need from the FBI or CIA they resist actually telling you what they have been doing and so yes he's doing a great job relative to what he can do you know says in China Xi Jinping has the power he can say I'm gonna do this and that will be done nothing else Trump and any Western leader doesn't have that power there are people behind the scene that pulled the strings and the horse and so he's much more constrained and say a Chinese leader or let's say Vladimir Putin you're absolutely right and then there's so much treachery as we've been so wealthy and so spoiled there's all these spoiled brats that won't get behind something good we're on a dictatorship but get behind it to make it happen for everybody no they all want to say they're better they're better and just run around again you
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