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everyone meet kevin here i just want to give a sincere thank you before we get into the cpi stuff to all of my supporters because yesterday i ran a poll on twitter and i basically asked if i'm a certified flip-flopper and i should just own it or if i have the right to change my mind and i'd be dumb not to change my mind if certain conditions change and the pull was kind of split between you know a certified flip-flopper and you have the right to change your mind when things change and thank you for giving us a heads up when things change uh which that's what i always want to do the problem with that is if you're too transparent and you're like one of the first people to change your mind well then you get all the hate that goes with it it's a problem but well i'll deal with it uh but the third option i gave was i just hate you you could go check this out on twitter at realme kevin i got like 17 votes on that i'm like at first i was really disappointed because i'm like wow 17 percent of people literally interact with me solely to hate me i'm like okay then i compared myself to trump or biden and i'm like wait that's actually not that bad so it felt a lot better but anyway so i guess that makes sense and it kind of explains why uh sometimes there there are some people let's just have a miserable life if you're leaving hate comments all the time but uh oh well uh so uh thank you to the 83 percent of you who are supporters and to the 17 of you i i just wish you the best a better life because hating is quite exhausting uh so thank you uh and as a thank you to everyone including my haters you can now get up to 12 totally free stocks by going to medcap and dot com slash weeble go to bedkevin.com weeble deposit any amount of money and get up to 12 totally free stocks okay now let's talk about cpi data so tomorrow we get cpi data it's at like 5 30 a.m it's like a really tiring kind of time of the day uh and like the good old days i'll actually be covering that live and i want to be very clear inflation is bad it hurts lower end consumers substantially and you know we re going through the american express earnings call and it's really not a shocker that at american express they're seeing an increase of real transactional growth this is above and beyond inflation they're saying the spending growth they're seeing is not just inflation driven because usually when i talk about oh spending going up people like well of course spending is going up it's because of inflation it's like well it's not only that but one of the things that i think is really interesting is you do see at american express this quote no significant signs of stress in their consumer base and it's really important to know that the american express consumer is is a lot wealthier and typically has a higher credit score than uh any any other consumer maybe like a more of a capital one or like a city kind of uh mastercard kind of uh customer or even honestly apple card kind of customer where the credit standards are a little lower actually in the case of apple a lot lower by the way if you have a bad credit score and you want to build your credit like shout out to the apple car you could get into that thing with like a pulse and like a 580 credit score okay it's crazy but they just want you to buy the freaking iphone okay uh but anyway uh one of the things that i've been talking about since the beginning of the year when i was talking about sort of the stress of 2020 and the hell that we're about to go through is that you probably want to position yourself to where there's a higher income demographic and for me that was remarkably tesla of course another high income demographic stock would be something like uh you know an end phase right although you do have the potential headwinds that in q1 q2 of 2023 you have this housing market disaster that that leads even higher net worth individuals to stop spending on upgrades on their homes even though there's a really good tax advantage to spending money on solar but but regardless here the point is higher income consumers are obviously going to be a lot less stressed by inflation and so that's something to keep in mind when you're looking at stocks and that's one of the reasons i've chosen tesla to sort of ride the disaster of 2020 through uh but of course there are other higher income stocks you could look at as well again whether that's uh enface or american express or others that cater to higher income demographics it's good to know because it's the lower income ones who get hurt more through inflation and that's terrible you know procter and gamble at the beginning of the year was bragging about how their consumers were not downgrading to cheaper products yet and i'm like you just wait now they're complaining about consumers downgrading because the people who were buying the gillette razors with their stemi checks now are like yeah okay maybe we got to go back to the store brand ones and and that's okay it just means less margin for for companies like procter and gamble right in fact i think that's a smart thing to do i think most of the time you should just buy store brand stuff like personally i buy store brand stuff too like it's like the brand name is just freaking name okay planters is probably making the same freaking peanuts and the archer farm stuff as they are in the planter's box or can or whatever anyway now one place we're actually not seeing this sort of disinflation is actually rend and that's because of something known as inertial inflation now that's a really fancy phrase but basically inertial inflation just causes more pain to people and it's it's a terrible thing see inertial inflation is basically when you say to home buyers boom you're not allowed to buy a home because interest rates just skyrocketed and so that makes it more expensive to purchase a home and so what individuals then say is well golly okay i won't purchase a home then because if home prices are still relatively high and my purchasing power just got eradicated by 35 basically homes are much more expensive on a monthly basis i'll just stay a renter if you stay a renter then you put more demand on on properties for rent and rents actually go up even as prices potentially go down now that's really bad for renters but it's also very great for investors and it's why i'm launching a company called house hack which in the future will give equity to tenants which will be really really cool i can't wait for that that's our expectation at least but anyway you could learn more about house hack and my startup by going to househack.com we are accepting investments from accredited investors and soon to non-accredited investors but i'm still working on that the sec takes like nine months for that but don't worry i haven't forgotten about non-accredited investors so stay tuned anyway talking about rent inflation it's really important to remember that rent makes up 32.9 of the cpi report and unfortunately because of inertial inflation we're still going to have high cpi reports for a while because it's going to be a bit before rents actually start coming down the problem with this is it actually risks the federal reserve being a little overly aggressive because even though we might see inflation go from nine percent to seven percent or six percent if cpi is still being propped up by high rents the fed is going to continue being aggressive for longer and this is where a lot of individuals say the fed risks potentially making a policy mistake because even though their actions are crushing demand and crushing in the market inertial inflation is in a weird way keeping rents higher even though they should be coming down part of that is because of cpi having this really stupid way of calculating rents so initially rents are going to go up due to inertial inflation then they'll come down but when they come down we're gonna it's gonna take like six months for us to actually see them come down because they use a stupid way to calculate rent called owner's equivalent rents and it tends to lag by six months so in other words you've have this terrible thing where like even as overall inflation might go down rent inflation is going to keep us propped up for longer and then even though rent actually might start eventually coming down we won't see that in cpi for another six months so it's like ah it's like a terrible thing right so what are the projections uh for tomorrow so let's hit those uh and then wrap it up here so i'm gonna i've got a gone ahead and written these down right here so you have these uh although this is a little bit messy uh we could have okay i mean we could just throw them up i do want to mention that there are three big things that we want to watch for it's cpi for the united states uh its ppi producer price index of for the united states tomorrow and then we'll also talk about the united kingdom's uh cpi release tomorrow i do also want to briefly talk about what i think might happen in the stock market so we'll talk about that in just a moment but let's take a look at this so here the month over month expectation for cpi is expected to be negative 1.1 the last read was zero percent so totally flat we do have a range of negative 4 to 0.2 so that actually has a little bit more of a bias to the downside so we could get a really nice negative read tomorrow like negative 0.2 negative 0.3 that would be phenomenal year over year we're expecting to go down to eight percent from eight point five this is a little bit of a skewed bell curve uh where it's it's really heavily skewed towards about eight percent although we do have a range from 7.9 to 8.3 it'd be nice if we could see something come in like even below that like 7.8 or 7.7 right core when you take out food or energy is expected to be stable at 0.3 this is actually not that bad because if you annualize that you'll end up being at a 3.6 percent which that would be acceptable now uh ppi that comes out on wednesday we're expecting year over year to come down to 7.1 versus 7.6 month over month not declining as much as previously last month it declined point five percent now expecting point one uh and then the fifth largest economy in the world right here followed by california right but that's not a country i wrote here because well california is not a country but if it were a country california would be bigger than the united kingdom but they do have a cpi release tomorrow which is kind of cool however what's not cool is that you're not actually expecting much movement in the united kingdom uh you're actually expecting inflation to go from 10.1 percent to 10 so you're you're gonna see more pain in europe for i think a lot longer and i think that's why the dollar is so much relatively stronger to the euro right now uh because there is a lot more pain in europe than what we're experiencing here and it's not just energy either because if you look at core you can see core is is 6.2 versus 6.2 so so even if you take out food and energy you're still not seeing a decline in the united kingdom so you've got these macro implications as well where it's not just a united states phenomenon that we have all this crazy inflation right it's it's entirely global so uh okay let's now go ahead and jump into my expectations for the stock market now we briefly touched on this ich if you want to be part of those we usually do them around with the opening bell you join any of the courses and you get to be part of them the biggest and most popular right now is you could use the coupon code link down below called seed for the best pricing we have at the moment and uh let's just talk about my expectations for the qqq so i think the biggest fear that people have is that the nasdaq is going to retrace to lower levels from june but it's really important to remember that in june we were expecting inflation of like 8.8 and we got like 9.1 percent like it was terrible it was july 4 june right it was absolutely terrible and so this really helped our stock market fall to to low levels uh because we had two bad reports in a row both the report that came out in june and the report that came out in july and we didn't end up peaking in march as expected so things really ended up getting worse and not better now though we're seeing more broadly things are really getting better rather than worse especially with commodity prices falling the bubble is out of oil and wheat and other commodities uh you know we've got russia retreating from kharkiv which is phenomenal uh the ukrainians are absolutely kicking butt so good for them but in the meantime what uh what what it would really take in my opinion to get back down to a zero percent fibonacci here on the weevil which remember kevin.com weeble for 12 free stocks uh what what's really remarkable here is we would in my opinion need to have more fear than what we had this summer when it felt like inflation was out of control and even with these expectations today uh for tomorrow i don't see that i just really don't see how we could really get more fear than what we had this summer it's possible it's entirely possible that we could hit lower lows but we would have to have some really terrible news inflation would just have to be completely out of control and unhinged to where we would have to get paul volcker to go even lower so uh you know i i hate putting my neck out there because people make fun of you for it but me personally at least i i don't see catalysts for us being able to go below the that that 268 number can we bob around the 23 to 38 fibonacci which is like the 300 to 318 yeah absolutely however if i think if we beat expectations tomorrow and uh that is to the to the better side and we have lower inflation i think we'll very quickly uh solidify 3 18 319 again on the nasdaq as a floor if we miss uh then then we'll probably go right back to about 299 on the qqq we could have a minus three percent day uh tomorrow and and sit right back to that 299 3 300 level so we'll see what happens uh fingers crossed i'll be there with you really appreciate you thank you so much for watching check out the courses linked down below use the coupon code go to mattkevin.com weeble for weeble and of course go to house hack to learn more about my new startup house hack thanks so much goodbye
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