저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 현 시장이 2000년대 초 닷컴형 거품 붕괴를 겪을 것이며, 이후 1970년대식 디플레이션 장기 침체로 이어져 자산 가격이 지금보다 크게 낮아질 수 있다고 본다. 거시 부채 문제: 미국 1인당 부채 약 9.4만 달러, 연방 총부채 31.4조 달러이며 GDP 대비 부채비율은 1985년 이후 약 1배에서 3배 이상으로 3배 증가했다. 그는 저금리가 부채를 부추기고 부채 증가가 성장을 높인다는 근거는 없고 오히려 위험을 키운다고 주장한다. 중국 인구·노동: 중국 20대 인구가 20년간 감소해 향후 노동력 부족이 세계적 인플레이션 압력으로 이어진다고 본다. 기술과 희소성의 경쟁에서 이제 희소성 쪽이 우세하다고 평가한다. 원자재·식량: 원자재 공급 부족과 병목이 상시화될 것이며, UN 식량지수는 지난 50년 중 현재 가장 높다. 노동·농산물·금속 등 실물 가격 압력이 장기적으로 지속된다고 본다. 연준 비판: 부채 버블과 주식 버블 붕괴 위험을 연준이 이해하지 못하고 있으며, 미국 주택시장은 하락한 적이 없다는 주장은 순진하다고 비판한다. 자산배분 권고: 원자재 포트폴리오의 필요성을 강조하며, 원자재는 주식·채권과 음의 상관관계를 가져 분산 효과가 크다고 본다. 인플레이션기에는 통화 가치가 떨어져 투자전략 전반에 영향을 준다. 시장 전망: 시장은 현재 2000년대 초와 유사하며 초기에는 그 패턴을 따르다가 이후 1970년대처럼 자산가격이 크게 하락할 것으로 예상한다. 모든 버블은 꺼지고 투기 열풍은 사라진다고 말한다. 리스크: 미 경기침체·채무 조정 시 가계와 정치적 부담이 크고, 러-우 전쟁·봉쇄·연준 정책은 단기 요인으로 해결이 어렵다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬 본인의 견해는 위와 같으며 사회자 발언은 제외함. 구체적 종목·가격목표는 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
inflation still wrecks American Homes prices of essential Commodities have gone through the roof and productivity has dropped for the first time in the 21st century in recent years one of the most prominent voices sanding the alarms has been Jeremy Grantham a renowned value investor and the co-founder of Boston's GMO warning that markets are susceptible to significant stock market shock regrettably he was correct the shock has already occurred how bad is the state of the economy what caused the financial catastrophe we're all experiencing now what is coming in the future of the world's largest economy join us as we discuss Jeremy grantham's predictions as the financial crisis unfolds it's done all the things that a Super Bubble typically does and it could start its way down anytime and perhaps a month ago we currently have a market that superficially resembles two thousands and he predicts that it will behave that way initially before unfortunately transitioning into the 1970s when all assets will be priced substantially lower than they are today due to the deflationary effects on the economy and stock market GMO a worldwide investment management company with a hundred billion dollars in assets under management is led by Jeremy Grantham as president and chief investment officer they are now among the most well-known money managers in the world and a subject matter expert who deserves your attention right now Grantham noted a recent analysis of his that showed a worrying gap between U.S growth projections and the country's capacity to sustain such projections due to Rising debt levels even a slight decline would be difficult for American households and politically risky for the president even though the president once claimed the probability of having a recession is extremely Slim according to Bernanke the fact that the housing market and the United States has never declined shows how strong the market is in this country according to Grantham the U.S economy could experience a painful stock market correction comparable to what stock markets went through in the early 2000s it's very tempting to look at the short-term issues like the Russo Ukrainian War the lockdowns and the Federal Reserve and blame them for the financial Havoc that has wrecked the United States and rippled out to the world all three of these factors make it certain that our issue will be difficult to solve in the short to medium future however there are longer term problems which have gotten largely unnoticed and that is what we're discussing today in this video high levels of debt the first point is that the average American owes about 94 000 this means the entire debt profile of the United States accumulates to 31.4 trillion dollars even top officials of the U.S government have admitted that this is unsustainable having a lot of debt is extremely risky and should be actively discouraged top managements such as the feds and others should be responsible for that let me give you an example what makes you prefer low rates it promotes debt what makes you want more debt because it promotes developments that is the plan so allow me to present the most comprehensive statistical analysis that we began in 1985.
due to technological advancements and the subsequent development of increasingly complex Financial products the ratio of debt to GDP has been gradually Rising rather than sharply expanding then in 1985 it flies over any page at a sharp 45 degree angle and increases from roughly one point times GDP so well over three so in that little window of 35 years the debt to GDP ratio tripled the world's largest and most significant economy tripled their debt profile in such a short time if that goes on how does growth then proceed there are lots of other variables at play but there isn't much place in that equation for the notion that greater debt leads to faster Economic Development the data do not support the claim that this is true like most of modern economics it is based on assumptions yet the statistics do not support it we dare say that there is absolutely no proof that higher rates of macro debts to GDP are related to growth but occasionally they do have everything to do with higher risk Jeremy Grantham points out that we have a great display that looks at the link between all the different Industries utility use Etc while we're selling our resource portfolio the only time the link declines is when resources are available and resources declined to such an extent that the 10-year correlation is negative Based on data from the previous 80 years worth of rolling 10-year periods it's that obvious the next Point has to do with the second largest economy and its vital role in world trade China 's declining population one is the China where 500 million additional Farmers cause globalization is running out of people China has been experiencing dwindling cohorts of 20 year olds for the past 20 years and since we know the baby cohorts are dwindling like a stone there will soon be a labor shortage that will affect the entire world that is not a small hurdle everyone within and outside the industrialized World Plus China herself will suffer for the labor shortages let's take a quick trip back in time to examine the economic history of China following the Bubonic plague there was a hundred year honeymoon period during which wages Rose dramatically to levels that would not be attained for several hundred years during the Industrial Revolution in the last 20 years the most valuable Commodities have tripled in Supply no doubt this is due to the rise of China the competition is constantly between technology and scarcity which for a century we've triumphed we've reached a stage where we've gone through that stuff and are now at a point where technology is two paces up and scarcity is three Paces down previously it was worse for the past 20 years the evidence has been screaming at us that we're starting to run out of course a war isn't necessary and today's world is so fragile that all it takes is a rough sneeze to sense price spikes brief outages and bottlenecks around the globe we'd better get used to it we're gonna live in a world with more and more shortages and bottlenecks and the same is true for food too in the past 50 years since it began the UN food index has never been higher than it is right now okay there is long-term price pressure on labor and there is price pressure on Rural Commodities metals and food the hazards of a debt bubble bursting and the remainder of an equity bubble bursting have simply not been understood by the Federal Reserve it brings doubt on why the FED should even exist and it feels like a new period in which inflation will be much like it was in the 20th century they're really gullible they aren't even interested in the concept and would seem they don't even have a clue some claim that the U.S Home Market has never decreased and that this is simply a reflection of the robust U.S economy that Alan Greenspan is promoting they haven't realized they're playing with fire until now therefore if you understand the inflation statistics you're aware of how well resources perform but you should also know of its somewhat's negative correlation with the rest of the portfolio when it is highly negative as we can see today when they do well it burdens the rest of the economy and when they do poorly they inflict more pain therefore there is a very strong case here for a resource portfolio on resources analysts like Paul Donovan argue that inflation gives people the incentive to spend now rather than later to avoid losing their savings people were buying stuff and the reason people were buying stuff was that throughout the pandemic you'd not been able to go out and buy stuff sitting at home in general during inflationary periods typically you'll currency loses pricing value impacting your investment strategy this affects every person and every business throughout their decisions as to what they need to buy or how much they will pay for a commodity they sell this also affects structured financial investments that generally invest in things affected by the economic downturn like bonds and treasuries let me give you a basic example imagine you have an investment fund at 15 interest and then there's inflation at five percent the genuine interest on your invested money is only 10 not 15 since you have to account for inflation so what has changed after the 2011 financial crisis when China's rapid industrialization slowed down the resource industry is suffering as a result of iron ore and coal growth rates that have dropped from double digit to zero dead flats for three years in a row it seems like the worst is over says Grantham he claims that the market is dazzlingly inefficient and deviates greatly from fair value and that all bubbles burst and that all investing crazes fade but eventually after taxing your patients and breaking your heart it will return there so your mission should you choose to accept is survive up to that point wealthy people understand how to protect their hard-earned assets that's how we stay afloat in these times thanks for watching this video don't forget to 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