저자: AscentFinancialWealth채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오를 캐나다 투자자용으로 재구성. 캐나다는 2022년 이후 실질수익률채(RRB) 발행이 중단되어 인플레이션 헤지 채권이 없음. 자산을 성장주, 명목채권, 인플레 방어자산(현금·단기채·금·원자재), 선택적 대체투자 4개 바스켓으로 나누고, 예시 배분은 글로벌주식 50%·현금 15%·캐나다채 10%·글로벌채(CAD헤지) 10%·원자재/금 15%. 2022년 장기채 ETF XLB 약 -22%, 현금형 ETF는 +2% 이상. 예시 포트폴리오 복리수익률은 연 약 1.8%이며 수익의 대부분은 주식 자본이득 기대. 계좌 배치는 이자자산은 RRSP, 주식은 TFSA, 금·원자재는 TFSA 또는 과세계좌 권장. 실제 백테스트가 아닌 개념적 예시임을 명시.
다듬은 글
What if you could create a portfolio that doesn't try to predict the next round of inflation, interest rates, or growth, but instead is prepared for it all . This is the main idea of an " all-weather" portfolio. It was popularized by Ray Dalio, but Canadian investors face a different inflation profile, a different bond market, and, starting in 2022, a complete lack of inflation-linked government bonds.
So, the structure must also be different. In this video, I will show you the principles of " all-weather" investing, inexpensive Canadian funds for creating it, and an example of a portfolio that you can adapt to your own needs. And finally, I will show what long-term profitability and drawdowns can actually look like.
In this video: the principles of " all-weather" investing, inexpensive Canadian ETFs to create it, an example of a portfolio for your goals, and a realistic overview of long-term gains and losses. An “all-weather” portfolio is designed so that at least one asset performs in each of the four economic regimes defined by growth and inflation.
It includes growth assets like stocks for periods of rapid growth, nominal bonds for recessions or falling inflation, and inflation hedges like commodities and gold for inflation spikes like in 2022 . Note that the goal here is not to maximize profit. This is stable, consistent profitability with smaller drawdowns from peak to trough.
At the time of this portfolio's creation, there had been a 40- year decline in government bond yields, which had driven bond yields. Therefore, it becomes clear why the share of bonds was so high. But I would question whether this would be a great choice in the future. And there are certain problems with this portfolio specifically for Canadian investors, which we will discuss further.
The British version of this problem is that government bonds ( gilts) have a very long maturity. In Canada, the problem is more fundamental. In 2022, the federal government stopped issuing real- yield bonds altogether, citing weak demand, although a survey of institutional investors managing $2.6 trillion by the S.D.
Howe, it turned out that none of them supported this decision. This leaves Canadian investors without a built-in inflation hedge in the bond market. Alternatives like US TIPS, short-term bonds, gold and broad commodities protect against Canadian inflation less precisely, but it's all we have to work with.
Sources: S.D. Institute Howe: The federal government should correct its mistake and bring back real- yield bonds. Fall 2022 Economic Report , Canada. Production Note: The timeline is built from left to right. Stopping on the dotted segment without replacement. Inflation is a real obstacle that is difficult to overcome.
Since 1960, Canada's consumer price index (CPI) has grown by an average of 3.8% per year, and in the summer of 2022 it jumped to over 8%—the fastest pace in four decades. Whatever your portfolio's return, it must first overcome this barrier, which is why it is so important to properly shape your basket to protect against inflation.
Forget about copying Dalio's exact percentages. The main thing is the principle of balanced regimes. Divide everything into four baskets. The first is growth stocks. The second is bonds. Ordinary nominal government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds . The third is inflation- resistant assets: cash and money market funds, short-term bonds, gold, and broad commodity markets.
Fourth— optional less liquid alternatives, such as REITs and infrastructure assets, held through closed-end structures so that a sell-off does not force the fund to dump illiquid assets. The year 2022 taught two lessons. First: duration is a real risk. ETFs for long-term Canadian bonds, such as XLB, fell nearly 22% that year, making it the worst calendar performance on record.
Whereas ETFs similar to cash instruments, like cash.to, even rose by over 2%. Second: During the inflation spike, cash-based fixed-income instruments were a more reliable hedge against stocks than long-term bonds, the opposite of what usually happens during growth panics. Do not underestimate the share of short-term cash instruments in the portfolio.
For a growth basket, it is now extremely cheap to buy the entire global stock market through a single Canadian ETF. Universal funds like XEQT, VEQT, or ZEQT hold thousands of global stocks, automatically reinvest dividends, and cost around 0.20% per year. There is actually only one global stock market , so the choice of provider matters much less than people think.
For nominal bonds, aggregated ETFs like ZAG, VAB, or XBB track the Footsie Canada Universe Bond Index, have durations of 7 to 9 years, and fees of less than 0.10%. For a basket of cash and inflation protection, HISA-type ETFs, such as cash.to, PSA, or CSAV, pay income close to overnight rates with fees of around 0.10–0.15% per year.
Or you can create a GIC ladder for the same purpose. Since Ottawa has stopped issuing real- yield bonds, a CAD-hedged gold ETF like CGL.C is one of the few pure inflation hedges available directly on the TSX. Here's one way to put it all together. Inspired by the concept of an " all-weather" briefcase, but adapted for Canada.
50% in global stocks—a little more than Dalio's 30%. So a slightly higher return on stocks can offset the lower duration risk in other parts. 15%in a Canadian money market ETF or cash fund. Strong, low-cost protection against inflation and equities without currency or credit risk. 10% in Canadian bonds to provide duration and some protection against expected inflation.
10% in global bonds hedged in Canadian dollars to diversify from the domestic bond sell-off and 15% in commodities, split between gold and a broader basket of commodities. This is just a guideline for adaptation, not a formula for exact copying. Another practical question. In which account should these funds be located?
The classic Canadian rule of thumb is this. Interest-bearing assets like cash, HISA ETFs, and bonds are taxed at your marginal rate once they move outside of the registered account. So, place them in your RRSP first and foremost. Stocks have the highest expected growth, and TFSA earnings are tax-free forever.
So, that's where you should first direct your stock ETFs. Gold and commodities do not generate income at all . They are only taxed as capital gains upon sale. Therefore, they are perfectly suitable for a TFSA if you have the space, or even for a non-registered account. If free space on registered accounts runs out , the surplus is transferred to unregistered accounts.
Ideally, for some shares, since capital gains and Canadian dividends also have preferential tax treatment there. This is a general principle, not personalized advice. Check with a tax professional about your situation. So, what kind of income can you realistically expect based on the funds' current reported profitability ?
The compounded return on this portfolio is only about 1.8% per year, about $1,800 in annual income for every $100,000 invested. Bonds and cash provide most of this performance. Gold and commodities do not provide any income at all . They are purely price hedging. This 1.8% is not the whole story of profitability.
The majority of overall returns are expected to come from capital appreciation of the stock, rather than distributions. And these yield figures change depending on interest rates. So take this as a snapshot, not a promise. What can we expect? In nominal terms, such a portfolio should look fairly stable with occasional downturns .
But investing is, above all, a fight against inflation. Therefore, the number that matters is the real line, adjusted for inflation. When inflation spikes, like in 2022, the real value of a portfolio can fall and take several years to recover, even if the nominal value looks normal. This graph is illustrative.
A proper Canadian backtest using index history dating back to the 1970s would need to be created separately. But the pattern— stable nominal growth with sharper real declines during inflationary shocks— is a pattern to expect. Importantly. This chart is a stylized illustration of the overall relationship between nominal and real performance, not a backtest of the actual performance of Canadian funds or indices.
Clearly marked on the screen. The caption is embedded in the graph image so that viewers do not mistake it for historical data. Real backtesting, such as through Portfolio Visualizer or PWL or JustWealth-style Canadian index data from the 1970s, would be a great topic for the next video. The reason for keeping it all together, rather than picking one winner, is diversification.
A well-balanced portfolio typically derives a significant portion of its returns from its highest- yielding assets, primarily stocks. while reducing overall volatility, as these assets have low correlation with each other. Gold, bonds, cash, and stocks typically react differently to the same economic shock, and that's the point.
Important . The positions in the chart are conceptual/ illustrative to show the effect of diversification and not measured historical risk and return performance for these specific Canadian funds. the caption is embedded in the chart image. In Canada, this portfolio should be held within a TFSA or RRSP to avoid paying capital gains or dividend taxes in the process.
TFSA—for tax-free withdrawals, RRSP— for tax deduction now and tax deferral on growth. In terms of cost, you can build an entire portfolio with an average fee of well under 0.25% per year using the ETFs in question. Regarding service, most Canadian brokers support one-click rebalancing. Doing this once a year is probably enough.
Many Canadian platforms also allow you to automate contributions through a standing authorized purchase plan, similar to the investment plans offered by some British platforms . The principles of all-weather investing are more important than copying any particular recipe. Make sure your portfolio includes all four baskets: growth, bonds, inflation-resistant assets, and optionally alternative investments, because that's what makes it sound.
Then adjust the percentages according to your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. What would your version look like? I would be happy to see the variations you suggest in the comments.
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